This InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll of the Iowa Democratic caucus was conducted Dec. 16-17. The margin of error on the first two questions is 3%; on the second two questions is less than 4%.  Both polls weighted for age and gender. 

 

Note: The first two questions were asked of likely voters in the Democratic caucuses. The third and fourth questions are the same as the first and second questions, but the third and fourth questions were asked of highly likely voters (based on a series of questions designed to pinpoint those most likely to participate in the caucuses.)

 

 

 

1.             If the vote for the Democratic nominee for president were held today would you vote for: (likely voters)

 

 

 

Age

Gender

 

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

(Base)

(977)

(34)

(88)

(436)

(419)

(392)

(585)

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Edwards

29.8

17.6

35.2

27.1

31.3

31.4

27.9

Clinton

26.4

26.5

15.9

28.2

38.7

26.0

35.2

Obama

24.3

35.3

35.2

19.5

12.6

19.6

17.8

Another candidate

12.1

8.8

8.0

15.4

11.9

17.6

9.9

Undecided

7.4

11.8

5.7

9.9

5.5

5.4

9.2

 

 

2.             If you are planning to vote for a candidate other than Clinton, Edwards, or Obama, and your candidate fails to receive the required 15% of the overall caucus vote in the first round of voting, and if the remaining choices were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, which candidate would you vote for as your second choice? (Likely voters)

 

 

 

Age

Gender

 

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

(Base)

(977)

(34)

(88)

(436)

(419)

(392)

(585)

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Edwards

42.3

29.4

42.0

41.7

47.3

46.9

41.5

Obama

29.4

38.2

40.9

25.5

16.9

26.3

21.9

 

Clinton

28.2

32.4

17.0

32.8

35.8

26.8

36.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.             If the vote for the Democratic nominee for president were held today would you vote for: (highly likely voters)

 

 

 

Age

Gender

 

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

(Base)

(633)

(17)

(52)

(307)

(257)

(219)

(414)

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Obama

26.6

41.2

38.5

20.8

14.0

21.9

19.1

Edwards

26.0

5.9

25.0

26.1

32.3

32.0

25.8

Clinton

23.8

23.5

15.4

27.7

35.8

21.0

34.5

Another candidate

14.0

5.9

11.5

15.6

12.1

20.1

10.1

Undecided

9.5

23.5

9.6

9.8

5.8

5.0

10.4

 

 

 

 

5.             If you are planning to vote for a candidate other than Clinton, Edwards, or Obama, and your candidate fails to receive the required 15% of the overall caucus vote in the first round of voting, and if the remaining choices were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, which candidate would you vote for as your second choice? (highly likely voters)

 

 

 

Age

Gender

 

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

(Base)

(633)

(17)

(52)

(307)

(257)

(219)

(414)

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Edwards

41.9

23.5

38.5

41.4

49.4

48.9

41.3

Obama

31.1

41.2

46.2

27.0

15.2

28.3

22.0

 

Clinton

27.0

35.3

15.4

31.6

35.4

22.8

36.7