CONTACTS: Janine Parry, Poll Director, 479-575-6439 or 479-409-0968, parry@uark.edu

Barbara Jaquish, Science and Research Communication Officer, 479-575-2683, jaquish@uark.edu

 

 

 

 

The Arkansas Poll, 2013

Summary Report

 

 

 

Dr. Janine A. Parry

Poll Director, Professor of Political Science

 

 

University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

 

 

 

Interviews conducted by: Issues & Answers Network, Inc.

Project sponsored by: The Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society,

Dean Todd Shields, Director

 

 


Arkansas Poll Website:
http://plsc.uark.edu/7129.php

 

 

 

Table of Contents

 

Most Important Problem/Public Figure Approval/Upcoming Elections……………………………. p. 2-3

Politics and Elections/Current Issues………………………………….……………………..……… p. 3-5

Political Party/Ideology……………………………………………………………………………… p. 5-6

Life in Arkansas…………………………………………………………………………………..…. p. 6

Methodology and Sample Details............................................................................... ……….. p. 7

 

*Values in parentheses include the “very likely voters” only; may not total 100 due to rounding.

Text Box:

Text Box: ntText Box: Text Box:

Most Important Problem

What is the most important problem or issue facing people in Arkansas today?[1]

2011

2012

2013

Š       the economy

67 (70)%[2]

47 (48)%

44 (44)%

Š       healthcare

3 (3)%

15 (15)%

12 (12)%

Š       politicians/politics

--

--

7 (8)%

Š       taxes

3 (2)%

6 (5)%

7 (7)%

Š       education

5 (4)%

11 (12)%

5 (5)%

Š       drugs

3 (3)%

12 (11)%

3 (2)%

Š       other/don’t know/refused

17 (17)%

5 (4)%

24 (22)%

Public Figure Approval Ratings

Do you approve or disapprove of the way ______________ is handling his job as governor?

Approve

Disapprove

DK/Ref

 Mike Huckabee  1999

66%

13%

21%

2001

70%

17%

13%

2003

47%

38%

16%

2005

58%

27%

15%

  Mike Beebe  2007

70%

9%

21%

2009

70%

9%

20%

2011

72 (74)%

13 (14)%

15 (12)%

2012

71 (72)%

14 (15)%

15 (14)%

2013

66 (68)%

17 (17)%

18 (14%

Do you approve of __________ as a U.S. Senator?

 

 

 

 Blanche Lincoln 2001 

51%

13%

36%

2003

55%

10%

35%

2005

55%

17%

28%

2007

50%

24%

26%

2009

43%

34%

23%

John Boozman   2011

40 (44 )%

24 (26)%

36 (30)%

2012

42 (45)%

17 (18)%

41 (35)%

2013

30 (34)%

28 (29)%

42 (37)%

Do you … Mark Pryor … as a U.S. Senator?

 

 

 

2003

52%

11%

37%

2005

56%

12%

32%

2007

53%

18%

29%

2009

51%

22%

27%

2011

47 (48)%

27 (29)%

27 (21)%

2012

51 (53)%

20 (21)%

29 (26)%

2013

33 (34)%

41 (44)%

26 (23)%

Do you … _________________ … as president?

 

 

 

 George W. Bush   2005 

38%

56%

7%

2007

30%

65%

6%

Barack Obama  2009

42%

47%

10%

2010

35 (31)%

57 (62)%

9 (7)%

2011

32 (31)%

60 (64)%

8 (5)%

2012

34 (31)%

59 (62)%

8 (6)%

2013

27 (29)%

65 (66)%

8 (5)%

Politics and Elections

Suppose the election were held today. (M)ore likely to vote for…?

R

D

Other/DK/Ref

U.S. Senate (Cotton/Pryor/Other)

32 (37)%

34 (36)%

34 (27)%

Arkansas Governor (Hutchinson/Ross/Other)

32 (35)%

30 (31)%

38 (34)%

U.S. House (generic)

32 (38)%

31 (31)%

37 (31)%

State legislative elections (generic)

36 (41)%

33 (33)%

31 (26)%

President 2016 (Hillary Clinton or Republican nominee)

44 (42)%

39 (44)%

17 (14)%

Who do you blame most for the government shutdown?

 

President Obama and the Democrats

37 (39)%

Republicans in Congress

26 (27)%

Both (silent)

37 (34)%

Have you been personally affected by the government shutdown?

 

Yes

20 (20)%

No

79 (79)%

Don’t know/refused

2 (1)%

Current Issues

According to the Affordable Care Act, starting in January 2014, most Americans will be required to have health insurance or pay a fine. Were you aware of this before now, or not?

Aware

89 (92)%

Not aware

9 (7)%

Don’t Know/Refused

1 (1)%

And will you have insurance at that time, or do you think you’ll choose to pay the fine?

 

Will have health insurance

88 (92)%

Will pay the fine

5 (4)%

Don’t know/Refused

7 (5)%

…. How familiar are you with these health insurance exchanges? Would you say you’re…

 

Very familiar

12 (12)%

Somewhat familiar

27 (30)%

Not too familiar

26 (26)%

Not at all familiar

31 (29)%

Don’t know/Refused

4 (3)%

First, in general, would you say you favor stricter gun control, less strict gun control, or should no change be made to existing gun control laws?

 
 
Stricter

 

 

Less Strict

 

No Change

 

DK/ Refused

2000

39%

15%

42%

4%

2002

36%

15%

45%

4%

2004

38%

12%

45%

5%

2006

37%

11%

47%

5%

2008

29%

13%

54%

4%

2009

24%

20%

52%

4%

2013

33 (33)%

15 (15)%

47 (48)%

6 (4)%

Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, favor laws that would make it easier to get an abortion or should no change be made to existing abortion laws?

 

 

More Difficult

 

 

 

Easier

 

 

No Change

 

 

DK/ Refused

1999

45%

14%

32%

9%

2001

46%

13%

35%

7%

2003

47%

13%

33%

7%

2005

44%

9%

39%

8%

2007

41%

13%

36%

9%

2009

43%

11%

38%

8%

2013

44 (44)%

11 (11)%

34 (35)%

11 (10)%

Which of the following policy positions most closely resembles your own view regarding relationships between two people of the same sex?[3]

Š  Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry

 

2005

15%

2007

16%

2009

18%

2011

23 (22)%

2013

23 (24)%

Š  Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions or domestic partnerships, but not marry

 

2005

22%

2007

27%

2009

22%

2011

20 (22)%

2013

21 (23)%

Š  There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship

 

2005

54%

2007

51%

2009

54%

2011

50 (51)%

2013

46 (46)%

Š  don’t know/refused

 

2005

9%

2007

6%

2009

6%

2011

7 (6)%

2013

9 (7)%

And which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be regarding undocumented immigrants currently residing in the United States.  Should the government:

Š  allow them to remain in the United States to work for a limited amount of time?

 

2009

9%

2011

8 (8)%

2013

9 (9)%

Š  allow them to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria like learning English and paying their back-taxes?

 

2009

57%

2011

56 (57)%

2013

59 (59)%

Š  deport all?

 

2009

27%

2011

27 (28)%

2012

26 (25)%

2013

21 (21)%

Š  allow them to become permanent residents with no requirements?

 

2009

2%

2011

3 (2)%

2013

2 (2)%

Š  don’t know/refused

 

2009

5%

2011

6 (6)%

2013

9 (8)%

Do you approve … of individuals who graduate from an AR high school but are in the U.S. illegally having access to in-state tuition …?

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

 

DK/Refused

2013

35 (36)%

52 (54)%

13 (10)%

(D)o you think gays and lesbians should … have equal rights in terms of job opportunities?

Should

Shouldn’t

DK/Refused

2013

78 (81)%

12 (11)%

9 (9)%

Political Party and Ideology

Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

 

 

Republican

 

 

Democrat

 

 

Indep’t

 

 

Other

 

DK/ Refused[4]

1999

23%

35%

31%

4%

7%

2000

23 (25)%

36 (38)%

35 (34)%

0%

6 (2)%

2001

27%

33%

32%

5%

3%

2002

28 (30)%

33 (35)%

33 (31)%

3 (2)%

3 (2)%

2003

24%

38%

31%

4%

3%

2004

30 (32)%

35 (36)%

28 (27)%

3 (3)%

4 (2)%

2005

23%

36%

33%

4%

4%

2006

23 (25)%

36 (37)%

33 (33)%

3 (3)%

4 (3)%

2007

24%

39%

30%

3%

2%

2008

24 (27)%

35 (34)%

33 (33)%

7 (5)%

2 (1)%

2009

24%

33%

34%

7%

3%

2010

21 (25)%

28 (27)%

42 (41)%

7 (6)%

3 (1)%

2011

26 (29)%

31 (33)%

34 (31)%

6 (5)%

4 (2)%

2012

29 (32)%

31 (30)%

33 (32)%

3 (3)%

4 (3)%

2013

24 (27)%

30 (31)%

37 (36)%

4 (3)%

5 (3)%

Independents only: Do you think of yourself …?

Closer to Republican

Closer to Democrat

Just Indep’t

 

DK/

Refused

1999

33%

29%

34%

 

4%

2000

35 (39)%

25 (26)%

35 (30)%

 

5 (2)%

2001

29%

36%

31%

 

4%

2002

30 (31)%

32 (34)%

33 (33)%

 

4 (3)%

2003

33%

34%

33%

 

2%

2004

39 (41)%

31 (32)%

30 (26)%

 

0 (1)%

2005

30%

35%

32%

 

4%

2006

33 (35)%

34 (34)%

30 (23)%

 

2 (3)%

2007

34%

37%

29%

 

1%

2008

35 (38)%

30 (29)%

33 (31)%

 

3 (3)%

2009

39%

32%

27%

 

2%

2010

44 (50)%

21 (16)%

33 (33)%

 

2 (2)%

2011

42 (48)%

29 (28 )%

26 (22 )%

 

3 (2)%

2012

41 (46)%

26 (22)%

28 (27)%

 

6 (5)%

2013

43 (51)%

21 (22)%

31 (22)%

 

6 (6)%

Do you think of yourself as …?

Liberal

Moderate

Conserv’e

 

DK/Ref

1999

14%

38%

38%

 

10%

2000

16%

36%

39%

 

9%

2001

17%

39%

38%

 

6%

2002

15%

39%

41%

 

5%

2003

17%

36%

39%

 

7%

2004

17%

35%

42%

 

7%

2005

13%

40%

39%

 

8%

2006

16%

39%

39%

 

7%

2007

16%

37%

39%

 

6%

2008

14%

35%

43%

 

8%

2009

14%

37%

42%

 

7%

2010

14 (12)%

35 (36)%

44 (48)%

 

8 (4)%

2011

16 (16)%

34 (34)%

45 (47)%

 

5 (3)%

2012

13 (12)%

32 (32)%

46 (51)%

 

9 (6)%

2013

14 (14)%

31 (31)%

44 (48)%

 

11 (7)%

 

Life in Arkansas

Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right

Wrong

 

DK/ Refused[5]

2003

63%

26%

 

11%

2005

73%

18%

 

9%

2007

69%

21%

 

8%

2008

71%

19%

 

10%

2009

72%

16%

 

12%

2010

67 (68)%

22 (21)%

 

11 (11)%

2011

74 (76)%

20 (19)%

 

7 (6)%

2012

73 (74)%

17 (17)%

 

10 (9)%

2013

63 (66)%

20 (20)%

 

16 (14)%

Would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about the same compared to a year ago?

Better

About the Same

Worse

DK/ Refused

2003

27%

45%

28%

1%

2005

28%

49%

22%

1%

2007

30%

48%

20%

1%

2008

20%

38%

41%

1%

2009

22%

46%

31%

2%

2010

19 (18)%

46 (47)%

34 (35)%

1 (0)%

2011

19 (19)%

49 (49)%

31 (32)%

1 (1)%

2012

23 (24)%

49 (50)%

27 (26)%

0 (1)%

2013

14 (14)%

58 (58)%

26 (26)%

2 (1)%

And, looking ahead, do you think a year from now, you will be … as now?

Better

About the Same

Worse

DK/

Refused

2003

35%

49%

12%

5%

2005

34%

46%

15%

5%

2007

38%

45%

12%

3%

2008

35%

39%

18%

8%

2009

32%

48%

17%

4%

2010

28 (25)%

46 (45)%

20 (23)%

7 (7)%

2011

25 (21)%

52 (56)%

18 (20)%

4 (4)%

2012

26 (27)%

48 (46)%

13 (13)%

13 (14)%

2013

18 (18)%

47 (49)%

24 (25)%

11 (8)%

 

 

Text Box: Methodology and Sample Information

Between October 10th and October 17th Issues & Answers Network, Inc. completed 800 telephone surveys among a random sample of adult Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents interviewed (n=160) use their cell phones for all or most of their calls.

 

The survey’s margin of error statewide is +/- 3.5 percentage points, meaning that we are 95 percent confident that the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points (in either direction) of the result our sample produced.

 

Employing guidelines established by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the poll’s overall cooperation rate was 27% (29% for landline calls and 22% for cell phone calls). This figure reflects completed surveys as a percentage of all eligible individuals contacted. 

 

To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team publishes what most polling organizations do not: a comparison of survey respondents’ key demographic characteristics to those of the state as a whole. This information is reported in the table below.

 

 

2013 Arkansas Poll Sample

State of Arkansas

Average Age Category (for 18+ pop.)

55-64

45-54

Married

58%

51%

Gender

 

 

Male

40%

49%

Female

60%

51%

Educational Attainment

 

 

High school graduates

88%

84%

College graduates

35%

19%

Median Household Income

$35,001-$50,000

$38,307

Race/Ethnicity

 

 

White

83%

77%

Black or African American

9%

15%

Multi-Ethnic

1%

2%

Hispanic

1%

6%*

Native American

2%

1%

Asian

1%

1%

Something Else, Don’t Know, Refused

8%

-

Sources: The 2013 Arkansas Poll, 2011 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census.

 

*Hispanics may be of any race, so these respondents also are included in applicable race categories.

 

 



[1] In odd-numbered years, the Arkansas Poll records and codes the open-ended answers of respondents.  In even-numbered years, respondents are asked to choose from the most frequently mentioned issues of the previous year.

[2] Values in parentheses include “very likely voters” only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

[3] Values in parentheses include “very likely voters” only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

[4] Values in parentheses include “very likely voters” only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

 

[5] Values in parentheses include “very likely voters” only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.