FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 1, 2010

 

TOOMEY UP 5 POINTS IN PENNSYLVANIA SENATE RACE,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;

REPUBLICAN HAS 10-POINT LEAD IN GOVERNOR’S RACE

 

Republican former Congressman Pat Toomey holds a 50 – 45 percent likely voter lead over Democratic U.S Rep. Joe Sestak in the race to be Pennsylvania’s next U.S. senator, while Republican Tom Corbett, the attorney general, is cruising with a 52 – 42 percent lead over Democrat Dan Onorato, the Allegheny County executive, in the race for governor, according to Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The GOP candidates’ domination among independent voters is the reason for their leads, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey conducted by live interviewers and completed Saturday, finds. Toomey leads Sestak among independents 52 – 39 percent and Corbett does even better, leading 53 – 34 percent among independent voters.

“The candidates each hold their party bases pretty well, each getting more than 80 percent of the votes of their own party members,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But it is independent voters, as is often the case in close elections that swings the balance of power.”

In the governor’s race overall, 6 percent of likely voters are undecided and 14 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind. More Onorato supporters, 17 percent, say that is the case than the 11 percent of Corbett backers.

“It is difficult to see how Dan Onorato becomes Pennsylvania’s next governor,” said Brown.

Likely voters give Onorato a 40 – 36 percent favorability rating compared to Corbett’s 51 – 25 percent rating.

 

Quinnipiac University Poll/November 1, 2010 – page 2

In the Senate race, 5 percent of likely voters are undecided and 13 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. Here too, slightly more of the Democratic candidate’s supporters say they might change their mind than those backing Toomey.

Toomey’s favorable/unfavorable ratio is 47 – 32 percent compared to Sestak’s 40 – 40 percent split with the likely voter pool.

“The Senate race has been neck-and-neck most of the way with Toomey slightly ahead. It looks like that is how the candidates will cross the finish line,” said Brown.

From October 25 – 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,244 Pennsylvania likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. 

For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were

Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?

(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Onorato or Corbett?

(This table includes Leaners)

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

 

Onorato 42% 7% 83% 34% 38% 45%

Corbett 52 89 13 53 58 46

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -

DK/NA 6 4 4 11 4 9

 

 

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before

the election?

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........

CAND CHOICE Q1

Tot DO TC

 

Made up 86% 82% 89%

Might change 14 17 11

DK/NA 1 1 -

 

 

2. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

 

Favorable 40% 15% 70% 38% 39% 42%

Unfavorable 36 61 11 36 38 34

Hvn't hrd enough 21 22 18 22 20 22

REFUSED 3 2 1 4 3 3

 

 

3. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

 

Favorable 51% 84% 21% 50% 58% 44%

Unfavorable 25 4 48 25 23 29

Hvn't hrd enough 20 12 28 20 16 24

REFUSED 3 1 3 4 3 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?

(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sestak or Toomey? (This table includes Leaners)

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

 

Sestak 45% 8% 88% 39% 38% 52%

Toomey 50 90 9 52 57 43

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -

DK/NA 5 2 3 8 5 4

 

 

4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........

CAND CHOICE Q2

Tot JS PT

 

Made up 86% 84% 87%

Might change 13 15 12

DK/NA 1 2 -

 

 

5. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

 

Favorable 40% 12% 75% 35% 37% 43%

Unfavorable 40 71 9 41 44 36

Hvn't hrd enough 18 16 16 22 17 19

REFUSED 2 2 1 3 3 2

 

 

6. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

 

LIKELY VOTERS.........................

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

 

Favorable 47% 81% 13% 46% 54% 40%

Unfavorable 32 5 60 32 29 35

Hvn't hrd enough 19 12 26 20 16 21

REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 4