For Immediate Release—Poll Results

October 28, 2010 (9pm)

Contact:

Poll Director: Brian Robert Calfano, Ph.D.

E-mail: briancalfano@missouristate.edu

Phone: 417-836-8574

Website: http://faculty.missouristate.edu/b/briancalfano/

The KOLR 10/KSN Poll is conducted in affiliation with the following:

The Missouri State University Poll Research Center

Missouri State University Department of Political Science

Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research

College of Humanities and Public Affairs of Missouri State University

 

 

 

 

 

About The KOLR 10/KSN Poll, October 28, 2010

The KOLR10/KSN Poll was conducted between October 20th to 27th, with a scientifically selected random call sample using random digit dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone sample furnished by Survey Sampling International of 821 registered voters in Missouri, 672 of whom were determined to be “likely” voters in the November election. The call sample included an oversample of residents in the 4th and 7th U.S. Congressional Districts to assess public opinion on the House races there. The telephone poll included 754 landline respondents acquired through RDD, and 67 interviews of randomly selected “cell phone only” households.

The poll was conducted through the Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research on the campus of Missouri State University, under the supervision of poll director Brian Robert Calfano, Ph.D.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population (e.g., Missouri residents), versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for the overall Missouri resident sample of 821 registered voters is +/- 3.4 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. The likely voter sample of 672 returns a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interview. Using our registered voter margin of error as an example, if 50 percent of Missouri registered voters in our poll favored a particular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 46.6 and 53.4 percent, had all Missouri registered voters been interviewed for this poll. Note that the margin of error for the House district results is higher because of the smaller sample sizes used. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or contextual effects.

Despite the use of a scientifically selected call sample, and the inclusion of cell phone only respondents, the results presented in this report were weighted using a “sample balancing” procedure according to the following respondent variables: age, sex, income, and geographic location within the state. Sample balancing involves the use of an iterative weighting algorithm to create these weights. Congressional district-specific results were weighted on the age, sex, and income characteristics within each district population. All weight targets were taken from U.S. Census reports. Using weights helps to ensure that poll respondents are reflective of the Missouri or district populations more generally (as determined by U.S. Census data). Finally, these results should be viewed as a general public opinion survey of Missouri residents during the time the poll was in the field.

 

 

 

 

Obama Job Approval

Survey Question: How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president? Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing? (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Strongly

Approve

Somewhat

Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not

Sure

Likely Voters (N = 672)

 

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

32.3%

48.4%

12.9%

6.5%

0%

Weak Democrat

46.4%

46.4%

0%

3.6%

3.6%

Independent, lean Democrat

23.1%

32.1%

21.8%

21.8%

1.3%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

8.2%

1.4%

10.6%

11.3%

28.2%

33.8%

51.8%

52.1%

1.2%

1.4%

Weak Republican

0%

1.4%

20.5%

76.7%

0%

Strong Republican

0%

6.2%

23.5%

70.4%

0%

Other Party

31.8%

15.9%

31.8%

20.5%

0%

 

Missouri Total Obama Approval

 

13.4%

 

19.7%

 

23.4%

 

38.2%

 

.9%

MOE = +/- 3.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nixon Job Approval

Survey Question: How would you rate the job Jay Nixon has been doing as governor? Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing? (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Strongly

Approve

Somewhat

Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not

Sure

Likely Voters (N = 672)

 

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

14.8%

45.9%

27.9%

1.6%

9.8%

Weak Democrat

32.1%

46.4%

10.7%

0%

10.7%

Independent, lean Democrat

11.4%

54.4%

16.5%

10.1%

5.1%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

10.5%

1.4%

62.8%

45.7%

10.5%

30.0%

5.8%

8.6%

8.1%

14.3%

Weak Republican

4.2%

44.4%

27.8%

6.9%

16.7%

Strong Republican

1.2%

40.2%

34.1%

8.5%

15.9%

Other Party

18.2%

38.6%

15.9%

4.5%

22.7%

 

Missouri Total Nixon Approval

 

9.2%

 

47.8%

 

22.9%

 

6.3%

 

12.7%

MOE = +/- 3.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition of Country

Survey Question: How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, well, pretty badly, or very badly? (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Very

Well

Fairly

Well

Well

Pretty

Badly

Very

Badly

Not

Sure

Likely Voters (N = 672)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

0%

14.5%

21.0%

54.8%

9.7%

0%

Weak Democrat

0%

28.6%

42.9%

25.0%

3.6%

0%

Independent, lean Democrat

0%

7.7%

24.4%

44.9%

20.5%

0%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

0%

0%

9.5%

2.9%

17.9%

12.9%

39.3%

54.3%

33.3%

30.0%

0%

0%

Weak Republican

0%

2.7%

8.2%

58.9%

30.1%

0%

Strong Republican

1.2%

3.7%

18.5%

51.9%

24.7%

0%

Other Party

0%

28.9%

17.8%

46.7%

6.7%

0%

 

Missouri Total Condition of Country

 

.2%

 

9.8%

 

18.1%

47.7%

 

23.8%

 

0%

MOE = +/- 3.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condition of State of Missouri

Survey Question: How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, well, pretty badly, or very badly? (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Very

Well

Fairly

Well

Well

Pretty

Badly

Very

Badly

Not

Sure

Likely Voters (N = 672)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

1.6%

26.6%

31.2%

21.9%

18.8%

0%

Weak Democrat

0%

32.1%

35.7%

32.1%

0%

0%

Independent, lean Democrat

0%

10.1%

35.4%

38.0%

11.4%

5.1%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

2.4%

0%

25.9%

17.1%

31.8%

45.7%

31.8%

31.4%

7.1%

5.7%

1.2%

0%

Weak Republican

0%

11.0%

27.4%

38.4%

21.9%

1.4%

Strong Republican

0%

16.2%

60.0%

15.0%

8.8%

0%

Other Party

9.1%

15.9%

31.8%

34.1%

6.8%

0%

 

Missouri Total Condition of State

 

1.3%

 

18.2%

 

36.8%

31.1%

 

11.0%

 

1.1%

MOE = +/- 3.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Missouri U.S. Senate Race

Survey Question: If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate from Missouri were held today, would you vote for Robin Carnahan, the Democrat, or Roy Blunt, the Republican? (Candidate name order randomized) (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Carnahan

Blunt

 

Other

Undecided

Likely Voters (N = 672)

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

100%

0%

0%

0%

Weak Democrat

86.2%

6.9%

6.9%

0%

Independent, lean Democrat

76.9%

20.5%

2.6%

0%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

29.4%

11.4%

67.1%

82.9%

3.5%

5.7%

0%

0%

Weak Republican

5.5%

84.9%

5.5%

4.1%

Strong Republican

2.5%

96.3%

0%

0%

Other Party

75.6%

24.4%

0%

0%

 

Missouri Total U.S. Senate

 

40.7%

 

53.8%

 

2.8%

 

2.2%

MOE = +/- 3.8%

 

 

 

 

 

Tea Party Movement in Missouri

Survey Question: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the tea party movement, an opponent of the tea party movement, or neither? (Response category order randomized) (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Supporter

Opponent

Neither

Not Sure

Likely Voters (N = 672)

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

3.2%

25.8%

66.1%

0%

Weak Democrat

0%

50.0%

42.9%

7.1%

Independent, lean Democrat

24.1%

16.5%

57.0%

2.5%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

18.8%

21.4%

5.9%

5.7%

61.2%

68.6%

14.1%

4.3%

Weak Republican

45.2%

2.7%

45.2%

6.8%

Strong Republican

54.3%

1.2%

40.7%

3.7%

Other Party

 

Missouri Total Tea Party

16.3%

 

26.0%

18.6%

 

11.8%

55.8%

 

55.4%

7.0%

 

6.1%

MOE = +/- 3.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Missouri 7th District U.S. House

Survey Question: If the 2010 election for U.S. House from Missouri 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Scott Eckersley, the Democrat, or Billy Long, the Republican, or Kevin Craig, the Libertarian? (Candidate name order randomized) (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Eckersley

Long

 

Craig

Other

Undecided

Likely Voters (N = 199)

 

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Weak Democrat

100%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Independent, lean Democrat

62.5%

12.5%

25%

0%

0%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

26.7%

6.2%

46.7%

71.9%

13.3%

6.2%

0%

0%

13.3%

15.6%

Weak Republican

0%

66.7%

0%

4.8%

28.6%

Strong Republican

6.1%

85.7%

4.1%

0%

4.1%

Other Party

0%

30.0%

20.0%

0%

50.0%

 

Missouri 7th District Total

 

22.8%

 

56.2%

 

7.4%

 

.6%

 

13.0%

MOE = +/- 6.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Missouri 4th District U.S. House[1]

Survey Question: If the 2010 election for U.S. House from Missouri 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Ike Skelton, the Democrat, or Vicky Hartzler, the Republican? (Candidate name order randomized) (Non responses not included)

Percentages

within Party Categories

Skelton

Hartzler

 

Other

Undecided

Likely Voters (N = 159)

 

 

 

 

Strong Democrat

100%

0%

0%

0%

Weak Democrat

80%

20%

0%

0%

Independent, lean Democrat

42.9%

42.9%

0%

14.3%

Independent

Independent, lean Republican

57.9%

40.0%

36.8%

60.0%

0%

0%

5.3%

0%

Weak Republican

8.3%

58.3%

0%

33.3%

Strong Republican

14.3%

76.2%

0%

9.5%

Other Party

71.4%

0%

28.6%

0%

 

Missouri 4th District Total

 

45.7%

 

38.8%

 

1.6%

 

14.0%

MOE = +/- 7.8%

 

 

 

 

Demographic Indicators Referenced in this Report (Not sure and non responses not included)

 

1)       As of today, how would you describe your political party affiliation?

 

Strong Democrat                                                                    (11.3%)

Weak Democrat                                                                       (5.7%)

Independent, lean Democrat                                           (16.3%)

Independent                                                                               (16.2%)

Independent, lean Republican                                        (11.9%)

Weak Republican                                                                    (11.9%)

Strong Republican                                                                  (13.4)

Other party                                                                                 (9.0)

 

2)       What is your gender? (weighted)

 

Female                                                                                            (52.5%)

Male                                                                                                 (47.5%)

 

 

3)       What was your age on your last birthday? (weighted)

 

18-34                                                                                               (30.3%)

35-44                                                                                               (17.5%)

45-54                                                                                               (20.3%)                 

55-64                                                                                               (12.9%)

65 and above                                                                              (19.0%)

 

4)       What is your estimated annual income? (weighted)

Less than $35,000                                                                   (45%)

$35,000-50,000                                                                          (18.1%)

$50,000-75,000                                                                          (19.2%)

$75,000-100,000                                                                       (9.0%)

$100,000+                                                                                    (8.6%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

5)       On November 2nd, midterm elections will be held. Missouri voters will elect a Senator, Members of Congress, and other state-level positions. Using a 1-10 scale, where 10 means you are completely certain you will vote, and 1 means you are completely certain you will NOT vote, how likely are you to vote in the upcoming elections? You can use any number between 1 and 10 to indicate how strongly you feel about your likelihood to vote.

 

“10”                                                                                                 (67.1%)

“9”                                                                                                    (4.6%)

“8”                                                                                                    (6.1%)

“7”                                                                                                    (2.8%)

“6”                                                                                                    (1.2%)

“5”                                                                                                    (3.4%)

“4”                                                                                                    (.9%)

“3”                                                                                                    (.9%)

“2”                                                                                                    (.6%)

“1”                                                                                                    (5.8%)

 



[1] These party-based breakdowns for Skelton and Hartzler were originally reported in the reverse. This was the result of human error in the manual transcription from the data file listing candidate support by party ID. We apologize for the inconvenience this may have caused.