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West Virginia Results by Demographics

By Brendan Nyhan

As predicted, Obama got drubbed in West Virginia, so it's time to update my series on the predictors of his state-level support. If we put the exit poll data in context, we can see that he did much worse among whites in West Virginia than we would expect based in states with similar black populations:


Sirota3d3b2

As predicted, Obama got drubbed in West Virginia, so it's time to update my series on the predictors of his state-level support. If we put the exit poll data in context, we can see that he did much worse among whites in West Virginia than we would expect based in states with similar black populations:


Sirota3d3b2


However, he did about as poorly as we would expect among whites given the proportion of state residents with college degrees, though West Virginia has fewer college graduates than any previous primary state in the sample:


Sirota3d3b3_2


[Both graphs include linear fits with 95% confidence intervals that are predicted based on previous primary results.]


Update 5/15 10:07 AM: Josh Marshall argues Obama's struggles with downscale white voters are the result of the cultural and racial history of Appalachia, the location of most counties that he's lost by wide margins (in purple):


Appalachia2




Brendan blogs regularly at Brendan-Nyhan.com