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RealClearPolitics
Poll AverageSM
Head-to-Head
Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards
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Poll
|
Date
|
Bush/
Cheney
|
Kerry/
Edwards
|
Spread
|
|
RCP
Average
|
10/27
- 11/1
|
48.9%
|
46.9%
|
Bush
+2.0
|
|
|
10/31
- 11/1
|
50%
|
46%
|
Bush
+4
|
|
|
10/30
- 11/1
|
50.2%
|
48.5%
|
Bush
+1.7
|
|
|
10/30
- 11/1
|
46.9%
|
44.3%
|
Bush
+2.6
|
|
|
10/30
- 10/31
|
46%
|
48%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
|
10/29
- 10/31
|
49%
|
47%
|
Bush
+2
|
|
|
10/28
- 10/30
|
50%
|
47%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
10/28
- 10/30
|
48%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+1
|
|
|
10/27
- 10/29
|
51%
|
45%
|
Bush
+6
|
|
|
10/25
- 10/28
|
51%
|
46%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
10/22
- 10/24
|
52%
|
46%
|
Bush
+6
|
|
|
10/21
- 10/24
|
49%
|
48%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/21
- 10/22
|
48%
|
47%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/19
- 10/21
|
52%
|
47%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
10/18
- 10/21
|
49%
|
45%
|
Bush
+4
|
|
|
10/17
- 10/19
|
48%
|
47%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/17
- 10/18
|
48%
|
43%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
10/14
- 10/17
|
47%
|
46%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/14
- 10/16
|
52%
|
44%
|
Bush
+8
|
|
|
10/14
- 10/15
|
48%
|
48%
|
TIE
|
|
|
10/14
- 10/15
|
50%
|
45%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
10/11
- 10/14
|
49%
|
46%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
10/9
- 10/11
|
47%
|
46%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/9
- 10/11
|
49%
|
46%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
10/9
- 10/10
|
48%
|
50%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
|
10/7
- 10/9
|
50%
|
46%
|
Bush
+4
|
|
|
10/6
- 10/7
|
47%
|
46%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/3
- 10/7
|
49%
|
46%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
10/3
- 10/4
|
48%
|
45%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
10/1
- 10/5
|
51%
|
46%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
10/2
- 10/4
|
46%
|
47%
|
Kerry
+1
|
|
|
10/1
- 10/3
|
48%
|
47%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/1
- 10/3
|
46%
|
45%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
10/1
- 10/3
|
49%
|
49%
|
TIE
|
|
|
9/30
- 10/2
|
46%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+3
|
|
|
9/27
- 9/30
|
51%
|
44%
|
Bush
+7
|
|
|
9/25
- 9/28
|
51%
|
46%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
9/24
- 9/26
|
52%
|
44%
|
Bush
+8
|
|
|
9/22
- 9/27
|
45%
|
46%
|
Kerry
+1
|
|
|
9/21
- 9/23
|
49%
|
43%
|
Bush
+6
|
|
|
9/21
- 9/22
|
45%
|
43%
|
Bush
+2
|
|
|
9/20
- 9/23
|
50%
|
45%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
9/20
- 9/22
|
50%
|
41%
|
Bush
+9
|
|
|
9/17
- 9/19
|
47%
|
44%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
9/14
- 9/18
|
46%
|
43%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
9/13
- 9/15
|
55%
|
42%
|
Bush
+13
|
|
|
9/12
- 9/16
|
50%
|
42%
|
Bush
+8
|
|
|
9/12
- 9/15
|
49%
|
45%
|
Bush
+4
|
|
|
9/7
- 9/12
|
47%
|
47%
|
TIE
|
|
|
9/9
- 9/10
|
50%
|
45%
|
Bush
+5
|
|
|
9/8
- 9/9
|
47%
|
45%
|
Bush
+2
|
|
|
9/7
- 9/9
|
54%
|
42%
|
Bush
+12
|
|
|
9/7
- 9/8
|
47%
|
45%
|
Bush
+2
|
|
|
9/6
- 9/8
|
50%
|
42%
|
Bush
+8
|
|
|
9/3
- 9/5
|
52%
|
45%
|
Bush
+7
|
|
|
9/2
- 9/3
|
54%
|
43%
|
Bush
+11
|
|
|
8/31
- 9/2
|
51%
|
41%
|
Bush
+10
|
|
|
8/30
- 9/2
|
46%
|
44%
|
Bush
+2
|
|
|
8/30
- 9/1
|
48%
|
47%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
8/26
- 8/29
|
49%
|
49%
|
TIE
|
|
|
8/24
- 8/26
|
46%
|
46%
|
TIE
|
|
|
8/24
- 8/25
|
44%
|
45%
|
Kerry
+1
|
|
|
8/23
- 8/25
|
50%
|
47%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
8/23
- 8/25
|
47%
|
46%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
8/21
- 8/24
|
45%
|
50%
|
Kerry
+5
|
|
|
8/21
- 8/24
|
49%
|
46%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
8/17
- 8/23
|
44%
|
44%
|
TIE
|
|
|
8/15
- 8/18
|
44%
|
47%
|
Kerry
+3
|
|
|
8/15
- 8/17
|
47%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
|
8/12
- 8/14
|
43%
|
50%
|
Kerry
+7
|
| Gallup
(729 LV) |
8/9
- 8/11
|
50%
|
47%
|
Bush
+3
|
|
|
8/2
- 8/5
|
45%
|
52%
|
Kerry
+7
|
|
|
8/2
- 8/5
|
43%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+6
|
|
|
8/3
- 8/4
|
43%
|
48%
|
Kerry
+5
|
| CBS
News (991 RV) |
7/31
- 8/1
|
43%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+6
|
| CNN/Gallup/USAT
(LV) |
7/30
- 8/1
|
51%
|
47%
|
Bush
+4
|
| ABC
News/WP (LV) |
7/30
- 8/1
|
48%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+1
|
| ARG
(776 RV) |
7/30
- 8/1
|
46%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+3
|
|
|
7/29-7/30
|
44%
|
52%
|
Kerry
+8
|
|
|
7/26-7/29
|
43%
|
48%
|
Kerry
+5
|
|
|
7/22-7/25
|
49%
|
48%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
IBD/TIPP
(883 RV)
|
7/19-7/24
|
43%
|
46%
|
Kerry
+3
|
|
|
7/20-7/22
|
44%
|
48%
|
Kerry
+4
|
|
|
7/18-7/22
|
43%
|
46%
|
Kerry
+3
|
|
|
7/20-7/21
|
44%
|
45%
|
Kerry
+1
|
|
|
7/19-7/21
|
47%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
|
7/18-7/20
|
46%
|
47%
|
Kerry
+1
|
|
|
7/17-7/21
|
46%
|
48%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
IBD/TIPP
(842 RV)
|
7/12-7/17
|
41%
|
44%
|
Kerry
+3
|
| CBS/NYT
(823 RV) |
7/11-7/15
|
44%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+5
|
| Dem
Corps* (1,010 LV) |
7/10-13
|
46%
|
51%
|
Kerry
+5
|
| CNN/Gallup/USAT
(706 LV) |
7/8-11
|
46%
|
50%
|
Kerry
+4
|
|
|
7/6-7/10
|
44%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+5
|
|
|
7/8-7/9
|
45%
|
51%
|
Kerry
+6
|
| Time
(774 LV) |
7/6-7/8
|
45%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+4
|
| Zogby
(1,008 LV) |
7/6-7/7
|
44%
|
46%
|
Kerry
+2
|
| CBS
News (462 RV) |
7/6
|
44%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+5
|
| NBC
News (504 RV) |
7/6
|
43%
|
54%
|
Kerry
+11
|
|
|
|
7/1-7/3
|
45%
|
49%
|
Kerry
+4
|
|
|
6/23-6/27
|
44%
|
45%
|
Kerry
+1
|
| Fox
News |
6/22-6/23
|
48%
|
42%
|
Bush
+6
|
| CNN/Gallup/USA
Today |
6/21-6/23
|
49%
|
48%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
6/9-6/30
|
47%
|
46%
|
Bush
+1
|
| Wash
Post/ABC News |
6/17-6/20
|
45%
|
53%
|
Kerry
+8
|
|
IBD/TIPP
|
6/14-6/19
|
44%
|
44%
|
TIE
|
|
|
6/8-6/13
|
44%
|
43%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
6/3-6/13
|
48%
|
46%
|
Bush
+2
|
|
|
6/6-6/10
|
49%
|
48%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
6/8-6/9
|
43%
|
45%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
|
6/5-6/8
|
44%
|
51%
|
Kerry
+7
|
|
|
6/3-6/6
|
44%
|
50%
|
Kerry
+6
|
|
|
6/1-6/6
|
45%
|
44%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
6/2-6/5
|
42%
|
44%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
|
6/2-6/4
|
49%
|
48%
|
Bush
+1
|
|
|
6/1-6/3
|
46%
|
48%
|
Kerry
+2
|
|
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Key: LV = Likely
Voters, RV = Registered Voters
* Democracy Corps is a Democratic Polling Firm
**To date we have not included the ICR poll in our RealClearPolitics
averages. However, after speaking with the polling director at ICR
we are now comfortable that the methodology of the poll is sound
and merits inclusion along with the other polls in our average.
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