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Eye-Oh-Uh (Updated)

Happy Iowa Caucus Day!

We have a long, and no doubt wild day ahead of us. We'll be live-blogging on the latest news and reactions all day long, so remember to check in throughout the day for all of the latest. To get you started, check out Tom's interview from yesterday with Joe Trippi. It's a good (and quick) read, and it provides you with a little window into how the Edwards camp is approaching the day.

Some early predictions:

Ed Morrissey goes with Obama and Huckabee. Kyle Moore agrees on Obama, but thinks Romney might grab it for the Republicans.

Is there an Obama consensus emerging? Setting the Best In Show predictions aside, Marc Ambinder sorts out some possible surprises for second and third place finishers.

Oh, and if you need a primer on how all this crazy caucus stuff goes down, check out Todd Beeton at MyDD. He has what you need. CNN provides a decent breakdown as well.


Zogby reports more Obama, Huckabee momentum, and Chuck Todd spins the potential post-spin for tomorrow.

And more caucus mechanics.


TPM speculates on a possible(?) Biden-Obama deal.

More predictions/endorsements:

Liberty Pundit

I will be supporting Fred Thompson in today's caucuses (although I will not actually be attending the caucuses). Quickly, I love Fred's tax plan, and despite everything going on in the world, domestic economic policy, especially taxes, always tops my agenda. When it comes to immigration and the War on Terror, I also have no doubt that Thompson would do whatever it takes to secure the border and continue the fight against extremists. I won't go through an analysis on why I don't like the other candidates, because that's not why I'm choosing Thompson. I simply choose Thompson.

On the Democrat side I'm "endorsing" Joe Biden, if you can use the word "endorse." If I had to choose a Democrat - that is, if a Democratic victory was inevitable - I'd choose Biden, simply because he doesn't appear to be as Bush-Deranged and clueless to international problems as the other big Dems. On this side, I am "choosing" a candidate based on a process of elimination, so I will quickly state why I don't like the other candidates.

Chris Bowers

The Romney dream appears to be over. Dang. This causes real problems, as it opens the door for McCain.

I didn't think there was a path for both Obama and McCain to win New Hampshire, but I can see it now: total Romney collapse. McCain's rise might still hand New Hampshire to Clinton, and I have no idea whatsoever whether McCain or Huckabee will go on to win the Republican nomination. On the one hand, I can see Huckabee winning South Carolina and Florida, and then sweeping to the nomination. On the other hand, I can see former Giuliani supporters lining up behind McCain, along with the rest of the media, allowing him to win not only states like California and New York, but possibly even South Carolina and Florida. It is really a tough call. A Huckabee vs. McCain matchup might very well extend past Super Tuesday, and expose a major regional split among Republicans.


Now that this thing is actually going to happen and people actually have to stand by their choice, I think Huckabee will fade into 2nd place, Romney will take it and Fred Thompson will place a surprising third.

Of course if you saw the record of my bowl predictions, you wouldn't take these too seriously. And I'd also remind you that other than George Bush in 2000 and Jimmy Carter in 1976, those who've won Iowa have rarely shown up in the Oval office.


It's Obama and Huckabee.

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