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October 2008

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Obama Camp Sees Its Path To Victory

On a conference call with reporters yesterday, Obama field director Jon Carson, along with campaign manager David Plouffe, laid out the path to victory. "We really feel that in a number of these states, the election is going to come down to our ground organization," Carson said. "We have around 1.5 million active volunteers around the country."

"The most important barometer for us is our voter contact," Carson said. "We measure how many people we actually have a conversation with. We average about 400,000 contacts a day. This weekend alone we will hit over 1.2 million contacts."

Plouffe said the campaing feels "very strongly about" Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, four states that voted for Pres. Bush in 2004. On Florida, Nevada and Ohio, Plouffe said they "assume all three will end up being competitive and close."

"There are an enormous number of states where we feel we have an opportunity to flip them," Plouffe said. "Even in states like Georgia and North Dakota."

On the call, Carson also offered early voting numbers in key states, and later distributed them in a memo to reporters. Read the memo after the jump.

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Jon Carson, Obama-Biden Campaign Field Director
RE: State of the early vote
DA: October 24, 2008

According to information from Secretaries of State from all over the country, Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004 and new and sporadic voting Democrats are voting early at higher rates than new or sporadic voting Republicans.

Below is the data on early voting I provided on the conference call earlier this afternoon.

Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004:

North Carolina - 2008 to date
All Votes By Party Registration
DEM 520,064 56%
REP 254,515 27%
UNA 155,476 17%

North Carolina - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration
DEM 479,305 48%
REP 363,294 37%
UNA 149,632 15%

Nevada - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 107,122 53%
Repub 63,577 32%
Other 30,938 15%
Total 201,637

Nevada - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Votes By Party Registration
DEM 147,408 45%
REP 135,743 41%
OTHER 45,211 14%


Iowa - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 132,882 50%
Repub 76,689 29%
Other 53,787 20%

Iowa - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 185,115 48%
Repub 118,167 30%
Other 86,071 22%

New Mexico - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 84,123 56%
Repub 49,145 33%
Other 16,484 11%

New Mexico - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 178,216 50%
Repub 132,505 38%
Other 42,461 12%

Colorado - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 184,352 39%
Repub 181,424 38%
Other 110,284 23%

Colorado - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 307,244 34%
Repub 384,642 42%
Other 221,336 24%

Florida - 2008 to date
All Voting
Dem 650,363 43%
Repub 651,700 43%
Other 225,980 14%

Florida - 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers
All Voting
Dem 1,056,986 42%
Repub 1,097,616 43%
Other 386,367 15%