« Political Video of the Day | The RCP Blog Home Page | Carterwatch Update - Jed Babbin »

McCain: Cooked?

For a long time, the rosiest polls for John McCain regarding the 2008 GOP primary were coming from the Cook Political Report. Not anymore.

Previously, a Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (June 1-4, 2006) had found McCain up as follows (among Republicans and leaners):

McCain - 29%

Giuliani - 24%

Romney - 8%

Field WITHOUT Giuliani:

McCain - 37%
Romney - 10%
Gingrich - 9%

Now, the same poll, taken August 25-27, finds Rudy solidly in the lead:

Giuliani - 32%

McCain - 20%

Gingrich - 10%

Field WITHOUT Giuliani:

McCain - 30%
Gingrich - 14%
Frist - 11%

"Thinking about Rudy Giuliani, some people say he really cleaned up NYC as Mayor and made it a safer place, and then he showed real courage as a leader after the attack on the WTC. Other people say that his views on some issues -- because he is pro-choice on abortion, and supports gun control and gay rights -- make it hard for them to support him for Pres."

Which Is Closer To Your View? (GOPers only): Now vs. 2/26

GOPers should nominate Giuliani for pres.: 56% vs. 50%
GOPers should not nominate Giuliani for pres.: 38% vs. 43%

Note that the last question there is very important -- how do Republicans line up when pushed on Giuliani's supposedly candidacy-sinking social views? Answer: They still support him. And despite the constant refrain that the more Republicans learn about Rudy the more they'll recoil, his numbers actually seem to be getting better with time.

GiulianiBlog has more analysis of the results and the full cross tabs. Giuliani's supporters, it seems from the cross tabs, are more conservative and more pro-Bush than McCain's, who are, unsurprisingly, fairly liberal.

Rudy might not run. Or there might be other reasons he won't win. But the idea that he's unacceptable to the conservative base is refuted again and again and again by the polls and the facts on the ground in states like South Carolina.

PS: Here's a preview of Rudy on judges.