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Lamont Cruising

Quinnipiac's final poll in the CT Senate primary shows Ned Lamont pulling away from Lieberman, 54 to 41. Kevin Rennie said last week on Kudlow & Company he thought Lamont would win in a walk, and it looks like that may very well be the case.

The next question, of course, is whether a serious thrashing in the primary will hurt Lieberman's chance of winning this race as an Independent. The hapless and confused campaign he's run against Lamont will no doubt raise many questions about whether Lieberman will be able to turn things around.

UPDATE: Kos thinks it's still going to be tight:

But the word is that Lamont's internal numbers show their guy with a narrow lead, while Lieberman's own numbers show him with a narrow lead. Split the difference, and this race is tied, no matter what the Q-poll might say.

Ultimately, these polls will spit out results based on a particular turnout model, and no one really knows what turnout will look like for an unprecedented August primary in this state. But at the end of the day, whose turnout model will you trust most -- I'm going with the two campaigns on the ground and have the best intelligence about what turnout might look like.

Some might think I'm dampening expectations. I'm not. I'll be interested in the trend lines of this poll, since momentum can be measured fairly accurately whether the turnout model is good or not. But if we do see some big blowout numbers, it doesn't necessarily mean we've got this thing in the bag.

Kos is right about taking primary polling with a grain of salt - something I mentioned just yesterday in the Georgia race. But the trendline in this race is unmistakable. There had been talk about whether Clinton's visit would help Lieberman stop the bleeding and also whether Lamont had "peaked too soon." This poll doesn't offer any evidence to support either of those assertions. Furthermore it's rare to see a candidate withstand a move of this magnitude (a 59-point swing in 12 weeks in the QPoll).

Maybe Lamont is just a paper tiger, a Dean-esque creation of the lefty blogosphere that is all buzz and no bite. I doubt it.