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Casey Leads Santorum 48% - 42% in Quinnipiac Poll

The latest Quinnipiac poll confirms the Morning Call poll from a couple of weeks ago that this race has indeed tightened considerably. I never took seriously Quinnipiac's supposed 18 point lead for Casey back in June, so I don't think Santorum has suddenly picked up 12 pts, but there is no question that he has closed the gap.

Santorum, of course, still has a host of problems working against his bid for a third term, but Casey's campaign should be very concerned to what is happening to their vaunted lead. One of the major considerations in RCP's ranking this race as Lean Democrat and why Casey is still likely to win, is simply the size of the deficit Santorum has to make up.

We have said from the outset to expect Santorum to close hard, but thought he would just come up short in the end, primarily because he simply had too deep a hole to climb out of. But if more polls continue to confirm this a 5-8 point race, rather than a 11-14 point race before Labor Day, this contest becomes a complete toss up. And with a Green Party candidate very much a real possibility to siphon critical votes away from Casey, suddenly Santorum may be very much back in the game. (RCP PA Senate Page | All Pennsylvania Senate Polls)