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Obrador Rising in Mexico

Another new poll shows leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador extending an ever-so-slight lead in Mexico's presidential race. Two weeks before voters go to the polls, Obrador gets 36.5% of the vote, Felipe Calderon of PAN is at 32.5%, and PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo brings up the rear with 27%. A poll by the same firm taken two weeks ago had Obrador leading by one percentage point.

A different poll (via Austin Bay) taken recently showed Obrador holding steady at 34% while Calderon's support dipped slightly to 31% from 33% in that group's last poll and Madrazo trailed with 30%.

What will an Obrador victory on July 2 mean for the United States? Trouble, most likely. Check out more coverage on the RCP topic page for Mexico.