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Election 2005 - New Jersey

Good news for Jon Corzine: in all likelihood the New Jersey Governor's mansion will cost him less than $30 million, which is a 50% discount off the $60 million he spent on the Garden State's Senate seat five years ago.

Three new polls from Monmouth/Gannett, The NY Times and Rasmussen have Corzine comfortably ahead at 7, 9 and 9 points respectively. These follow a 7-point Corzine lead recorded in the most recent Quinnipiac poll (10/11-10/17).  Both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac are trending slightly in favor of Corzine.

The four-way debate on Tuesday provided Forrester few opportunities to engage Corzine and plenty of space for the frontrunner to maneuver away. Efforts to tie Corzine to the corrupt machine of New Jersey politics in general - and to the corrupt former Governor Jim McGreevey and former Senator Bob Torricelli in particular - don't seem to be gaining enough traction for the Forrester campaign.

Now that I've basically written Forrester off, let's try and find a few slivers of hope, because if you look hard enough, they're there. Sliver One: Corzine currently stands at 47.5% in our RCP average and except for the latest Quinnipiac poll he hasn't touched 50% in any of the last 16 polls taken since the beginning of September.  Another sliver: Corzine's current state-wide Senatorial approval rating is under 50% as well. Sliver Three: though Corzine's lead in the latest Monmouth poll was basically unchanged from their last poll three weeks ago, he dropped 7 points among self- described independents.  Like I said, a few tiny slivers, but with 18 days left it's better than no slivers at all. 

 Don't forget, the RCP NJ Governor's Race Page is the ultimate resource for polls, news and commentary for the final days of this race.