1146 19th St., NW,
Suite 200 (202) 463-7300
Interview dates: September 26-29, 2008
Interviews: 1,129 adults; 1,007 registered voters
Margin of error: +-2.9 for all adults; +-3.1 for registered voters
Ipsos/McClatchy Poll
PROJECT #81-6939-01
NOTE: all results shown are percentages unless otherwise labeled.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted September 26-29, 2008. For the survey, a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 1,132 adults across the United States was interviewed by Ipsos. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ±2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. Within this sample, Ipsos interviewed 1,007 respondents who self identified as registered voters. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within ±3.1 percentage points. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to U.S. Census figures. Interviews were conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish.
PERCENTAGES ARE REPORTED ON REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY
1a-b. If the election for president were held today and the candidates were (READ ANSWER LIST), for whom would you vote? Do you lean more toward...
|
|
9/26-29/08 |
9/18-22/08 |
9/11-15/08 |
9/5-9/08 |
|
Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats |
46 |
44 |
45 |
45 |
|
John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans |
42 |
43 |
45 |
46 |
|
Ralph Nader for president and Matt Gonzalez for vice president, the Independents |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Bob Barr for president and Wayne Allyn Root for vice president, the Libertarians |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
(DO NOT READ) Neither |
- |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
(DK/NS) |
9 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
* (DO NOT READ) Neither was not offered in the most recent wave.
(Q1c. ASKED ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO DID NOT INITIALLY PROVIDE A CANDIDATE.)
1c. In November, will you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote for that candidate, or do you think you could change your mind before the election in November?
|
OBAMA / BIDEN (Base: 393) |
|
9/26-29/08 |
9/18-22/08 |
9/11-15/08 |
9/5-9/08 |
|
Definitely will vote for candidate |
77 |
80 |
80 |
80 |
|
|
Probably will vote for candidate |
13 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
Could change mind |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
DK/NS |
1 |
2 |
- |
0 |
|
McCAIN / PALIN (Base: 386) |
|
9/26-29/08 |
9/18-22/08 |
9/11-15/08 |
9/5-9/08 |
|
Definitely will vote for candidate |
74 |
72 |
71 |
77 |
|
|
Probably will vote for candidate |
18 |
17 |
16 |
13 |
|
|
Could change mind |
8 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
|
|
DK/NS |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2a. If the election for president were held today and the candidates were (READ ANSWER LIST), for whom would you vote?
[IF “NEITHER/NO OPINION/DK/REF” TO QU. 2a, ASK Qu. 2b] 2b. Do you lean more toward …
|
Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats |
48 |
|
John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans |
45 |
|
(DO NOT READ) None |
3 |
|
(DO NOT READ) No opinion |
1 |
|
(DK/NS) |
3 |
3. Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident or not at all confident in…(INSERT TEXT – RANDOMIZE. ENTER SINGLE REPONSE FOR EACH ITEM. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS. REPEAT RESPONSE CATEGORIES AS NECESSARY)
|
|
The security of your checking or money market account |
The security of your savings account |
The ability of the federal government to cover the costs of federal deposit insurance in the case of bank failures |
|
Very confident |
35 |
42 |
26 |
|
Somewhat confident |
34 |
30 |
34 |
|
Not very confident |
17 |
14 |
20 |
|
Not at all confident |
10 |
11 |
16 |
|
(DK/NS) |
3 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Very/Somewhat confident |
70 |
72 |
60 |
|
Not very/Not at all confident |
27 |
25 |
36 |
4. For the following areas, please tell me whether you think there is currently too much, not enough, or just about the right amount of government regulation. What about…(INSERT TEXT – RANDOMIZE. ENTER SINGLE REPONSE FOR EACH ITEM. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS. REPEAT RESPONSE CATEGORIES AS NECESSARY)
|
|
Banking |
Other financial institutions |
Airlines |
The Environment |
Manufacturing |
|
Too much |
18 |
16 |
18 |
22 |
22 |
|
Right Amount |
24 |
21 |
37 |
23 |
30 |
|
Not enough |
55 |
58 |
38 |
54 |
43 |
|
(DK/NS) |
4 |
5 |
6 |
2 |
6 |
`
PARTY AFFILIATION / IDEOLOGY
1a. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS.)
|
|
Registered Voters |
|
Right direction |
18 |
|
Wrong track |
77 |
|
(DK/NS) |
5 |
1b. Are you currently registered to vote at this address, or not?
|
|
All Adults |
|
Yes |
82 |
|
No |
18 |
|
(DK/NS) |
0 |
2a. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or none of these?
(IF “DEMOCRAT” TO Q.2a, Q.2b ASKED. IF “REPUBLICAN” TO Q.2a, Q.2c ASKED. IF “INDEPENDENT” or “NONE OF THESE” TO Q.2a, Q.2d ASKED. RESULTS SHOWN IN SUMMARY BELOW.)
2b. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Democratic Party?
2c. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Republican Party?
2d. Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?
|
|
Registered Voters |
|
Strongly Democrat |
27 |
|
Moderately Democrat |
10 |
|
Lean Democrat |
13 |
|
Strongly Republican |
17 |
|
Moderately Republican |
11 |
|
Lean Republican |
13 |
|
Independent (No lean) |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Total Democrats |
49 |
|
Total Republicans |
41 |
|
|
|
|
Initial Democrats |
36 |
|
Initial Republicans |
28 |