31.29 0.032
IBD/TIPP POLL
LIKELY VOTERS TRACKING
Q:  If the 2008 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain? (Candidates rotated)
Conducted by Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP)
Learn more at:
http://ibdeditorials.com/PollsMain.aspx
www.tipponline.com
*Note:  Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size
DAY 14 (OCT 26 RELEASE) DAY 13 (OCT 25 RELEASE) DAY 12 (OCT 24 RELEASE) DAY 11 (OCT 23 RELEASE) DAY 10 (OCT 22 RELEASE) DAY 9 (OCT 21 RELEASE) DAY 8 (OCT 20 RELEASE) DAY 7 (OCT 19 RELEASE) DAY 6 (OCT 18 RELEASE) DAY 5 (OCT 17 RELEASE) DAY 4 (OCT 16 RELEASE) DAY 3 (OCT 15 RELEASE) DAY 2 (OCT 14 RELEASE) DAY 1 (OCT 13 RELEASE)
Polling Period 10/21 to 10/25 10/20 to 10/24 10/19 to 10/23 10/18 to 10/22 10/17 to 10/21 10/16 to 10/20 10/15 to 10/19 10/14 to 10/18 10/13 to 10/17 10/12 to 10/16 10/11 to 10/15 10/9 to 10/14 10/7 to 10/13 10/6 to 10/12
Margin of Error +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.0-percentage points +/- 3.5-percentage points +/- 3.5-percentage points +/- 3.5-percentage points +/- 3.5-percentage points +/- 3.5-percentage points
Sample Size 886 Likely Voters 989 Likely Voters 1,008 Likely Voters 1,060 Likely Voters 1,052 Likely Voters 1,088 Likely Voters 1,086 Likely Voters 1,072 Likely Voters 1,093 Likely Voters 1,020 Likely Voters 884 Likely Voters 872 Likely Voters 884 Likely Voters 825 Likely Voters
  Obama +3.2     Obama +3.9     Obama +3.5     Obama +1.1     Obama +3.7     Obama +6.0     Obama +5.3     Obama +5.1     Obama +7.4     Obama +5.3     Obama +3.6     Obama +3.3     Obama +2.9     Obama +2.1  
    Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure Obama McCain Not sure
Overall Two Man Race 46.5% 43.3% 10.1% 45.8% 41.9% 12.2% 45.8% 42.3% 11.9% 44.8% 43.7% 11.6% 45.7% 42.0% 12.3% 46.9% 40.9% 12.1% 46.7% 41.4% 11.9% 46.6% 41.5% 11.9% 47.2% 39.8% 13.0% 45.9% 40.6% 13.5% 45.2% 41.6% 13.2% 45.2% 41.9% 12.9% 44.8% 41.9% 13.3% 44.8% 42.7% 12.5%
Region Northeast 54% 34% 11% 53% 34% 13% 54% 32% 14% 51% 33% 15% 55% 28% 18% 55% 31% 15% 55% 32% 14% 52% 35% 13% 52% 33% 16% 49% 34% 17% 48% 35% 16% 46% 35% 19% 52% 31% 17% 53% 31% 16%
Midwest 43% 41% 16% 42% 40% 18% 43% 41% 16% 45% 41% 14% 46% 41% 13% 46% 42% 12% 47% 40% 13% 45% 42% 13% 42% 43% 15% 42% 43% 14% 42% 44% 14% 42% 46% 12% 42% 45% 13% 43% 44% 14%
South 42% 52% 6% 42% 50% 8% 41% 50% 9% 40% 51% 9% 41% 49% 9% 42% 46% 12% 43% 47% 10% 45% 45% 10% 47% 43% 11% 45% 44% 11% 44% 44% 11% 44% 45% 11% 41% 47% 12% 41% 48% 11%
West 53% 37% 10% 51% 36% 13% 51% 39% 10% 47% 44% 9% 45% 43% 12% 49% 40% 11% 47% 42% 11% 47% 40% 13% 50% 37% 13% 49% 38% 13% 48% 40% 13% 51% 38% 11% 48% 40% 12% 47% 43% 10%
Area Type Urban 60% 30% 10% 59% 27% 14% 61% 27% 12% 61% 28% 12% 59% 29% 12% 56% 32% 12% 55% 35% 11% 53% 35% 12% 55% 34% 12% 51% 36% 13% 52% 36% 11% 52% 35% 13% 52% 36% 12% 51% 35% 14%
Suburban 34% 54% 12% 35% 53% 11% 32% 56% 11% 31% 57% 12% 33% 53% 14% 36% 49% 14% 38% 47% 15% 39% 47% 14% 40% 45% 15% 43% 43% 14% 43% 42% 14% 44% 44% 12% 43% 42% 15% 43% 44% 13%
Rural 31% 60% 9% 29% 61% 10% 32% 56% 12% 31% 57% 11% 32% 56% 11% 33% 56% 11% 35% 53% 12% 34% 56% 10% 35% 50% 15% 36% 49% 15% 36% 49% 15% 35% 51% 14% 34% 52% 14% 34% 57% 10%
Age 18-24* 42% 53% 5% 36% 54% 10% 30% 64% 6% 22% 74% 4% 43% 53% 4% 46% 44% 11% 46% 46% 8% 42% 52% 6% 43% 51% 6% 38% 53% 9% 42% 50% 8% 65% 32% 3% 74% 21% 5% 66% 26% 7%
25-44 51% 42% 7% 50% 42% 8% 49% 44% 7% 47% 45% 8% 47% 44% 9% 50% 41% 9% 51% 40% 9% 53% 37% 10% 53% 37% 9% 53% 39% 9% 51% 40% 9% 52% 40% 8% 47% 42% 11% 46% 41% 13%
45-64 45% 43% 12% 46% 39% 15% 48% 36% 16% 49% 36% 15% 48% 36% 16% 47% 39% 14% 47% 40% 13% 46% 41% 12% 47% 40% 13% 46% 40% 14% 46% 40% 13% 43% 45% 12% 45% 42% 13% 44% 44% 12%
65+ 44% 43% 12% 42% 43% 15% 41% 45% 14% 40% 46% 14% 40% 46% 14% 41% 45% 14% 40% 45% 14% 39% 44% 17% 40% 41% 19% 39% 41% 20% 35% 45% 20% 32% 45% 23% 31% 48% 21% 36% 48% 16%
Gender Male 42% 48% 10% 40% 48% 12% 40% 48% 12% 41% 49% 10% 40% 48% 12% 41% 47% 11% 43% 46% 11% 42% 47% 11% 42% 46% 12% 40% 47% 13% 38% 49% 12% 39% 50% 12% 40% 48% 12% 41% 48% 11%
Female 50% 40% 10% 51% 37% 13% 51% 38% 12% 48% 39% 13% 50% 37% 13% 52% 35% 13% 50% 38% 12% 51% 37% 13% 52% 34% 14% 51% 35% 14% 51% 35% 14% 51% 35% 14% 49% 37% 14% 48% 38% 14%
Parental Status Parents 44% 46% 10% 44% 43% 12% 43% 45% 12% 45% 43% 12% 47% 41% 12% 51% 40% 10% 52% 40% 8% 51% 39% 10% 51% 38% 10% 50% 39% 11% 49% 40% 11% 47% 41% 12% 46% 41% 13% 43% 42% 15%
Non-Parents 47% 42% 10% 47% 41% 12% 47% 41% 12% 45% 44% 11% 45% 42% 13% 46% 41% 13% 45% 42% 14% 44% 43% 13% 46% 41% 13% 45% 41% 14% 43% 43% 13% 44% 43% 13% 45% 42% 13% 45% 43% 11%
Race White 39% 51% 10% 39% 49% 12% 39% 49% 12% 38% 50% 12% 40% 47% 13% 40% 46% 13% 39% 47% 13% 39% 47% 13% 40% 46% 13% 40% 47% 13% 39% 48% 12% 39% 49% 12% 39% 48% 12% 40% 49% 11%
Black/Hispanic 81% 8% 11% 77% 11% 12% 75% 13% 12% 73% 17% 10% 74% 19% 7% 79% 15% 6% 85% 11% 4% 84% 11% 5% 83% 10% 7% 80% 10% 9% 76% 12% 12% 74% 11% 14% 73% 14% 13% 73% 12% 15%
Income Under 30K 56% 32% 12% 53% 36% 11% 51% 38% 11% 48% 42% 11% 50% 38% 12% 54% 34% 12% 54% 31% 15% 53% 33% 14% 54% 31% 15% 51% 32% 17% 48% 33% 19% 51% 33% 17% 52% 28% 19% 52% 30% 18%
30K-50K 48% 45% 7% 48% 40% 11% 48% 41% 11% 44% 46% 10% 50% 39% 11% 53% 36% 11% 49% 41% 10% 49% 42% 9% 56% 35% 10% 55% 36% 9% 50% 41% 9% 50% 38% 11% 49% 38% 13% 44% 42% 13%
50-75K 40% 48% 12% 43% 45% 12% 46% 47% 7% 44% 49% 7% 48% 43% 9% 50% 39% 11% 50% 38% 12% 52% 35% 12% 57% 31% 12% 54% 33% 13% 53% 37% 11% 46% 44% 10% 44% 45% 11% 40% 48% 12%
75K+ 45% 47% 8% 44% 45% 11% 45% 44% 11% 46% 44% 11% 44% 45% 11% 45% 46% 9% 44% 48% 8% 45% 47% 8% 44% 49% 8% 44% 49% 8% 46% 47% 7% 48% 44% 8% 45% 46% 9% 49% 43% 8%
Party Democrats 86% 8% 6% 84% 7% 9% 86% 6% 8% 84% 8% 8% 87% 5% 8% 88% 6% 7% 88% 7% 5% 87% 7% 6% 87% 7% 6% 86% 8% 6% 86% 8% 6% 85% 7% 8% 85% 7% 8% 86% 7% 7%
Republicans 7% 87% 6% 7% 85% 8% 5% 86% 9% 5% 86% 9% 7% 84% 9% 8% 83% 9% 8% 83% 9% 10% 82% 9% 8% 83% 9% 7% 84% 9% 6% 87% 8% 5% 87% 7% 4% 89% 7% 5% 88% 7%
Ind./Other 43% 38% 19% 42% 37% 21% 45% 37% 18% 44% 39% 17% 42% 38% 20% 42% 35% 22% 40% 37% 22% 40% 38% 22% 40% 36% 24% 39% 36% 25% 37% 37% 26% 38% 38% 24% 39% 36% 25% 39% 37% 25%
Investor Yes 43% 48% 9% 43% 46% 12% 43% 45% 11% 43% 46% 11% 45% 43% 12% 46% 43% 12% 43% 45% 12% 45% 43% 12% 47% 41% 12% 45% 42% 12% 44% 44% 12% 45% 45% 11% 42% 46% 12% 41% 48% 10%
No 55% 35% 10% 53% 36% 12% 53% 37% 10% 50% 41% 9% 49% 41% 9% 52% 39% 10% 54% 36% 9% 51% 39% 10% 52% 37% 11% 52% 37% 12% 51% 36% 13% 49% 37% 15% 50% 35% 16% 52% 34% 15%
White White men 34% 57% 9% 33% 56% 11% 33% 55% 11% 34% 56% 10% 35% 53% 11% 35% 52% 12% 37% 51% 12% 36% 52% 12% 36% 52% 12% 35% 53% 12% 34% 55% 11% 34% 56% 10% 35% 54% 11% 35% 55% 10%
White women 43% 46% 10% 44% 43% 13% 44% 44% 12% 41% 45% 13% 44% 42% 14% 45% 41% 14% 41% 44% 14% 43% 43% 14% 45% 41% 14% 44% 42% 14% 44% 42% 14% 44% 43% 13% 43% 43% 14% 43% 44% 13%
Black/Hisp Black  91% - 9% 88% 4% 8% 83% 8% 9% 84% 9% 6% 85% 11% 4% 89% 8% 4% 91% 5% 3% 88% 7% 4% 87% 6% 7% 86% 4% 10% 83% 5% 12% 81% 3% 16% 83% 4% 12% 86% 3% 11%
Hispanic 55% 29% 16% 49% 28% 23% 51% 28% 21% 44% 38% 18% 43% 42% 15% 52% 35% 13% 65% 29% 6% 73% 20% 7% 72% 22% 7% 67% 25% 8% 60% 29% 11% 59% 29% 12% 48% 37% 15% 45% 32% 23%
Women Single women 65% 24% 11% 62% 24% 14% 60% 28% 13% 55% 30% 15% 59% 26% 15% 57% 27% 16% 54% 31% 14% 57% 29% 14% 59% 28% 13% 59% 27% 14% 58% 29% 13% 62% 25% 14% 58% 27% 15% 59% 29% 13%
Married women 39% 52% 9% 42% 47% 11% 45% 45% 11% 45% 44% 11% 45% 44% 12% 48% 41% 11% 46% 42% 11% 46% 42% 12% 48% 41% 12% 46% 41% 13% 47% 40% 13% 44% 43% 13% 44% 42% 14% 43% 42% 15%
Education High School 49% 40% 11% 46% 39% 15% 45% 40% 15% 45% 40% 14% 43% 42% 15% 43% 42% 15% 45% 41% 14% 47% 39% 14% 50% 35% 15% 48% 35% 17% 49% 35% 16% 46% 36% 18% 45% 36% 19% 45% 37% 18%
Some College 42% 43% 14% 40% 44% 16% 43% 46% 11% 39% 51% 10% 39% 52% 9% 42% 46% 12% 47% 42% 11% 43% 44% 13% 42% 45% 13% 43% 45% 12% 43% 47% 10% 40% 50% 10% 44% 45% 12% 43% 44% 14%
College Degree or more 48% 45% 7% 49% 43% 9% 48% 41% 11% 47% 41% 11% 50% 37% 12% 51% 38% 11% 48% 42% 11% 48% 41% 10% 49% 41% 11% 47% 42% 11% 45% 43% 12% 47% 42% 11% 45% 44% 11% 45% 45% 9%
Ideology Conservative 20% 71% 9% 22% 69% 9% 21% 69% 10% 21% 69% 10% 23% 66% 11% 23% 65% 11% 24% 65% 11% 23% 66% 11% 22% 64% 14% 21% 65% 15% 20% 67% 13% 20% 68% 12% 20% 67% 13% 20% 69% 11%
Moderate 60% 27% 12% 57% 27% 16% 60% 26% 14% 57% 29% 14% 59% 26% 15% 59% 28% 12% 58% 28% 14% 59% 27% 14% 63% 25% 12% 60% 28% 12% 58% 27% 14% 61% 26% 13% 60% 26% 14% 60% 25% 15%
  Liberal 89% 5% 6% 85% 5% 10% 87% 6% 7% 87% 7% 6% 85% 7% 8% 85% 5% 10% 84% 10% 6% 85% 9% 6% 85% 9% 6% 86% 8% 6% 85% 9% 6% 85% 7% 8% 81% 9% 10% 81% 9% 11%
HH Description Upper/Upper Middle 51% 44% 5% 50% 41% 9% 48% 42% 11% 52% 38% 10% 48% 40% 13% 50% 39% 11% 48% 42% 10% 49% 42% 8% 48% 43% 8% 49% 44% 7% 46% 46% 8% 45% 45% 10% 39% 46% 15% 40% 47% 13%
  Middle 42% 47% 11% 43% 45% 12% 44% 46% 10% 43% 48% 9% 45% 46% 10% 45% 45% 10% 45% 46% 10% 44% 45% 11% 44% 44% 12% 43% 45% 13% 43% 45% 12% 43% 45% 12% 45% 43% 12% 46% 42% 12%
Working 51% 37% 12% 48% 37% 15% 49% 38% 13% 44% 41% 15% 47% 39% 14% 51% 35% 13% 49% 37% 14% 51% 36% 13% 55% 32% 13% 57% 32% 11% 55% 34% 11% 57% 33% 10% 52% 37% 11% 46% 41% 13%
Lower 64% 25% 11% 67% 24% 9% 67% 26% 7% 63% 26% 11% 61% 28% 11% 54% 32% 14% 62% 21% 17% 58% 20% 22% 61% 18% 21% 56% 16% 28% 67% 6% 27% 53% 14% 34% 48% 29% 23% 44% 38% 18%
Religion Protestant 40% 53% 7% 40% 50% 11% 38% 50% 12% 38% 51% 11% 39% 49% 13% 37% 51% 12% 37% 53% 11% 36% 53% 11% 36% 52% 12% 36% 53% 11% 35% 54% 12% 36% 53% 11% 33% 56% 11% 35% 55% 10%
Catholic 40% 47% 13% 39% 45% 16% 43% 45% 11% 39% 48% 13% 46% 41% 13% 49% 38% 12% 49% 41% 11% 47% 43% 11% 48% 43% 9% 47% 44% 9% 46% 46% 8% 46% 43% 10% 45% 42% 13% 42% 43% 15%
Other Christian 47% 42% 11% 45% 44% 11% 43% 45% 11% 40% 49% 11% 38% 52% 10% 41% 49% 10% 44% 43% 13% 45% 42% 13% 48% 39% 13% 46% 39% 14% 46% 40% 14% 41% 46% 13% 42% 46% 12% 41% 50% 9%
Jewish 69% 18% 13% 66% 11% 23% 60% 6% 34% 57% 17% 27% 59% 23% 17% 68% 20% 12% 62% 31% 8% 71% 25% 3% 75% 22% 3% 75% 16% 9% 65% 21% 14% 78% 9% 13% 70% 12% 19% 74% 6% 20%
Other 40% 52% 8% 43% 40% 16% 46% 41% 14% 55% 36% 9% 56% 34% 10% 67% 27% 6% 49% 47% 4% 51% 45% 4% 59% 35% 6% 55% 39% 6% 46% 44% 10% 71% 20% 9% 60% 28% 11% 58% 28% 14%
None 74% 17% 9% 76% 18% 7% 73% 16% 11% 77% 13% 10% 73% 13% 13% 72% 15% 13% 72% 16% 13% 71% 18% 11% 66% 21% 13% 62% 22% 16% 63% 20% 17% 61% 22% 16% 63% 20% 17% 64% 20% 15%
Union Household Yes 54% 32% 14% 54% 27% 18% 59% 30% 12% 59% 29% 11% 65% 25% 11% 63% 28% 10% 63% 27% 10% 59% 31% 10% 57% 34% 10% 54% 37% 9% 59% 35% 6% 54% 41% 5% 57% 37% 6% 60% 32% 8%
No 45% 45% 10% 45% 44% 11% 44% 44% 12% 43% 46% 12% 43% 45% 13% 45% 43% 12% 44% 44% 12% 45% 44% 12% 46% 41% 12% 45% 42% 13% 44% 43% 14% 44% 42% 14% 43% 43% 15% 42% 45% 13%
Displays Flag Yes 36% 53% 11% 37% 51% 13% 38% 50% 12% 36% 51% 13% 38% 49% 14% 39% 49% 13% 39% 49% 12% 39% 48% 13% 39% 48% 14% 37% 49% 14% 39% 48% 13% 36% 50% 14% 34% 51% 15% 34% 51% 14%
No 66% 26% 8% 62% 26% 11% 62% 27% 11% 63% 28% 9% 62% 29% 9% 63% 27% 9% 63% 27% 9% 65% 27% 8% 66% 25% 9% 66% 24% 10% 61% 27% 12% 65% 25% 10% 64% 25% 10% 65% 26% 9%