The ninth part in a weekly series
With a dwindling number of days left in the presidential campaign and just a handful of states up for grabs, Hillary Clinton is spending valuable time in New Hampshire, a state she is poised to win.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows the Democrat ahead by eight percentage points in the Granite State – though a new Monmouth survey has the gap at just four -- and most analysts and strategists there would be surprised if Donald Trump pulled out a victory next month. But while the presidential race in New Hampshire isn’t as close as it has been in previous years, it is home to one of the most competitive U.S. Senate races in the country and serves as a key battleground for several themes of the 2016 campaign.
And so when Clinton came to campaign there this week, she sat on stage with Gov. Maggie Hassan, who is challenging Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Clinton also brought along top surrogate Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who laid into Ayotte with almost the same vigor as she went after Trump.
“Donald Trump sure has made Kelly Ayotte dance. She spins round and round,” Warren told a crowd of 4,000 in Manchester. "Donald Trump was right: Kelly is weak.”
Republicans in the state would say Ayotte is one of the strongest incumbents running this cycle in an increasingly difficult environment. Not only is Trump a drag on her candidacy, but she is also running against a twice-elected Democratic governor in a state where Clinton is leading by a sizable margin. Like most Senate candidates on Republican tickets, Ayotte has had to walk the tightrope between engaging Trump’s supporters while also showing her independence. Democrats criticized her for calling the GOP nominee a “role model” during a debate with Hassan, a comment she later retracted and apologized for. And earlier this month, she came under fire from Trump supporters for rescinding her endorsement of the standard-bearer.
Still, the Senate race is virtual dead heat: The RCP polling average has Hassan up by a mere 0.8 percentage points. And New Hampshire has a history of ticket splitting. John Kerry won there in the 2004 presidential race, while Republican Sen. Judd Gregg was re-elected. And Republicans point to Ayotte’s colleague, Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who survived a dismal election cycle for her party in 2014.
Granite Staters have not shied from female representatives. “Women have a huge voice in New Hampshire elections. It’s a state that elects a lot of women to senior positions,” said Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist who has advised various campaigns in the state. “Trump’s rhetoric has really soured women on his candidacy.”
“You’re going to see a significant amount of ticket splitting,” Williams predicted. “These are very sophisticated voters.”
New Hampshire once provided a launch pad for Trump’s campaign, and challenges for Clinton’s. The business tycoon made his first stop as a presidential candidate in the state and went on to win the primary there after a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. He has visited several times as his party’s nominee, including a stop there the day before news broke of his now-infamous “Access Hollywood” recording. (He’s due back in the state on Friday.)
Ayotte severed ties with Trump immediately afterward and cited her young daughter in her reasoning. Several other Republicans followed suit, though some have since said they again support him. Since then, Ayotte has been running as a check against a President Clinton. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is sponsoring television ads on her behalf that present a similar check-and-balance message.
“Ayotte is running against Hillary more than she is running against Hassan,” said New Hampshire Republican attorney and political strategist Tom Rath. “For her to survive and be alive at this point is somewhat of a tribute to her.”
Earlier this month, New Hampshire appeared to be more competitive for Trump. And he has shown an affinity for the state that once boosted him through the primaries, a place where his populist, anti-establishment message resonated. But there, as elsewhere, Trump’s failure to reach beyond the primary electorate has hurt him. Roughly 40 percent of voters in the state are independent, while 30 percent are Republicans and 30 percent are Democrats. “There was a significant portion of the primary electorate that went to other people and is not necessarily going to go back to him in the general,” said Rath. “Ayotte is running significantly ahead because she has a broader base and is able to extend to people he hasn’t.”
“Ayotte is running significantly ahead [of Trump] because she has a broader base and is able to extend to people he hasn’t.”
But Trump’s deficit with Clinton makes it more difficult for Ayotte to pull significantly ahead of Hassan. And Democrats aren’t letting up in their attacks. “For months, Sen. Ayotte stood by Donald Trump, said he ‘absolutely’ would be a role model for our children,” Hassan said in Manchester on Monday, with Clinton by her side. “Now, she made the political calculation to try and distance herself from Trump.”
Democrats see the Manchester event as a sign of unity that will boost party candidates down the ballot. “We have a genuinely united ticket working together, and that’s going to make a world of difference for the entire ticket,” said New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley. “We’re heading into the final two weeks with great optimism, and a ground operation that’s going to make the difference.”
New Hampshire has often been a symbol of unity. In fact, Clinton endorsed then-Sen. Barack Obama, her rival in the 2008 race, in a town there called Unity. Bernie Sanders, who defeated Clinton in the New Hampshire primary by an overwhelming 22-point margin, delivering a significant blow to her campaign, endorsed her in Portsmouth in July. He has returned two other times to campaign for his former rival.
Not all Republican candidates in New Hampshire are running from Trump. Gubernatorial candidate Chris Sununu, son of former Gov. John Sununu, is standing by him. The RCP polling average shows Sununu running just two points behind Democrat Chris Van Ostern.
But the overall disunity within the GOP could take a toll.
“The chief concern for Ayotte right now [is] … are Republicans in New Hampshire becoming depressed and demoralized by what’s happening at the top of the ticket, and will they turn out to vote?” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. “If the Republican base has a down year, that spells serious trouble for down-ticket Republicans. And if Ayotte can’t overcome that, that spells worse problems.”
Next week: Non-traditional battlegrounds -- Utah, Arizona, Georgia
Caitlin Huey-Burns is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com. Follow her on Twitter @CHueyBurnsRCP.
