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Polls: Ducey Widens Lead Over DuVal in Arizona

Polls: Ducey Widens Lead Over DuVal in Arizona

By Adam O'Neal - October 22, 2014

Republican Doug Ducey is opening up his lead over Democrat Fred DuVal in the tight Arizona gubernatorial race, according two recently released surveys. RCP now rates the race “leans GOP,” a change from the “tossup” designation assigned to the contest shortly after the August primary. 

Ducey earns 47 percent of the vote to DuVal’s 42 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports. Third-party candidates garner 3 percent, and 7 percent remain undecided. A separate poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group, shows Ducey winning by a wider margin, 43 percent to 36 percent. Libertarian Barry Hess took a 5 percent share of the vote in that survey. 

Independents, Arizona’s largest group of voters, break evenly between Ducey and DuVal in the Tarrance poll. DuVal will need to peel off a bigger share of independent voters in order to remain competitive in the conservative state. 

The surveys conflict with a poll conducted for the Republican Attorneys General Association, which showed the race to be a virtual dead heat. 

While Republican groups (or Republican-leaning pollsters) directed all three surveys, the Rasmussen and Tarrance polls align more strongly with underlying trends -- which favor Ducey -- in Arizona. 

The Rasmussen survey of 1,056 likely Arizona voters was conducted Oct. 14-16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The Tarrance Group survey of 500 likely Arizona voters was conducted Oct. 13-16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Adam O'Neal is a political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at aoneal@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @RealClearAdam.

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