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Poll: DuVal, Ducey in Dead Heat for Arizona Governor

Poll: DuVal, Ducey in Dead Heat for Arizona Governor

By Adam O'Neal - October 21, 2014

The Arizona gubernatorial race is a dead heat, according to a new survey from McLaughlin & Associates. 

Democrat Fred DuVal (with 36 percent support) trails Republican Doug Ducey (37 percent) by just one percentage point, well within the poll’s margin of error. Third party candidates receive about 5 percent of the vote. 

The result is notable given that the survey was conducted for the Republican Attorneys General Association by the same firm that does polling for the Republican Governors Association. (It also shows GOP nominee Mark Brnovich leading Democrat Felecia Rotellini, 39 percent to 32 percent, in the race to succeed Tom Horne -- whom Brnovich defeated in the primary -- as AG.) 

President Obama earns a 39 percent approval rating in Arizona, with 57 percent disapproving of how he is handling his job. About one-third of respondents believe that Arizona is headed “in the right direction,” while 49 percent say it’s “gotten off on the wrong track.” 

The poll conflicts with another recently released survey, conducted by Republican polling firm The Tarrance Group, which shows Ducey with a seven-point lead over DuVal. 

The RCP polling average currently rates the gubernatorial contest a “tossup,” though Ducey leads by 5.5 percentage points. 

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Oct. 12-14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Adam O'Neal is a political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at aoneal@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @RealClearAdam.

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