Poll: Cotton, Pryor in Close Arkansas Senate Race
Correction: A previous version of this article indicated that Rep. Cotton led Sen. Pryor among "likely voters." In fact, Cotton is tied with Pryor among "likely voters" and only leads in the "definite voter" category. All of the poll's respondents are registered voters in Arkansas.
A new Hickman Analytics poll shows Republican Rep. Tom Cotton and Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor in a close race for a U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas.
In a head to head matchup, Cotton beats Pryor, 51 percent-42 percent, among “definite voters.” But Cotton’s lead evaporates into a 46-46 tie among “likely voters,” suggesting that turnout efforts will be crucial on Election Day. When third party candidates are included, Pryor leads Cotton 40-37 among likely voters, while Cotton leads 41 to 39 among definite voters.
The two candidates have been mired in a very close race for months. Although Pryor has the advantage of incumbency, his vote for the Affordable Care Act and other ties to President Obama have made him particularly vulnerable. Obama’s approval rating in Arkansas is just 32 percent.
Additionally, Pryor has generated controversy on the campaign trail. Last week, he suggested that Cotton -- a combat veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan -- has a “sense of entitlement” because of his military service. (The poll was conducted before Pryor’s comments were made.)
Although Pryor has contracted with Hickman Analytics before, he did not order this particular poll.
The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Feb. 17-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.