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Huntsman Electability Argument May Play in N.H.

Huntsman Electability Argument May Play in N.H.

By Scott Conroy - March 10, 2011

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- It seems that former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu is not the only influential New Hampshire Republican with an opinion about Jon Huntsman's electability.

Sununu caused a rumpus in GOP circles here last week when he told RealClearPolitics' Erin McPike that Huntsman "won't play well anywhere" as a presidential candidate because the outgoing U.S. ambassador to China was "barely a Republican."

Sununu's blunt disparagement of the former Utah governor did not sit well with some unaligned New Hampshire GOP officials and strategists, who deemed it counterproductive to the process for such a prominent Republican figure to write off a prospective presidential contender before a single person, let alone Hutsman himself, has even officially announced a candidacy.

Manchester attorney Ovide Lamontagne, who ran a close race against now Sen. Kelly Ayotte in the 2010 GOP primary, said in an interview Thursday that Sununu's criticism of Huntsman was unfair.

"I don't think anyone in New Hampshire should be dismissing anyone's candidacy, frankly," Lamontagne told RCP. "That's why the New Hampshire primary is so special. A real dark horse can come here and actually make significant inroads and do well, and that's why we have the primary we do."

Lamontagne was a dark horse candidate himself before he mounted a surprisingly strong showing in last September's Senate primary, falling less than 2,000 votes short of victory after riding a wave of tea party support. In his new role as one of the most coveted future endorsers in New Hampshire presidential politics, Lamontagne said that he would back a candidate sometime in the fall, as he continues to look toward his own potential 2012 gubernatorial run.

Asked what advice he would give to Huntsman about running for president, Lamontagne said that the former governor should "rent an apartment and live in New Hampshire for a while."

"I mean really, he's got to be here a lot," Lamontagne said. "The reason for that is the activists are right now looking to back candidates, so you've got to network with them."

Although Lamontagne ran as a movement conservative in 2010, he refused to rule out the possibility that Huntsman - who has a moderate record on some social issues - could gain traction in a Republican primary, arguing that electability would be a particularly salient issue for New Hampshire Republicans who are aware of the daunting prospect of trying to unseat an incumbent president.

Huntsman is expected to make his perceived electability a centerpiece of his platform.
The Huntsman campaign-in-waiting is already at work making this case, seizing on the White House's apparent concern with the charismatic former governor whom they may have incorrectly assumed to have successfully exiled to the other side of the world when President Obama appointed him ambassador to China in 2009.

On Wednesday, Obama seemed particularly intent on drowning Huntsman with praise, calling him "an outstanding advocate for this administration" as the ambassador prepares to head home next month to mull a political future that could set him against his current boss.

"Despite the fact that Huntsman's still virtually unknown, the president and his advisors have enough political sense to recognize that he would be the most formidable opponent in the general election," said a strategist likely to be involved in a Huntsman campaign. "The only reason they are meddling in the GOP primary at this early stage is because they know Huntsman can win."

Still, Sununu's point is that Huntman's recent past cuts both ways. Sure, the White House respected him enough to try and co-opt him, but serving in the administration of a Democratic president is not exactly an ideal resume bullet point in a Republican primary.

Furthermore, New Hampshire voters are unlikely to reward a candidate simply because he claims the best chance of winning in November-as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani can attest.

But Republican activists who advised John McCain four years ago-and who are aligned with Huntsman's nascent political operation now-know a thing or two about how to win in New Hampshire. For one thing, they are unlikely to advise their candidate to emulate Giuliani in largely abandoning the state when his poll numbers tanked.

Huntsman can also argue that Utah is no New York City, and that no one gets elected governor in perhaps the reddest state in the union without having strong conservative credentials.

"He's a perfect candidate for New Hampshire," said Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. "He's got credibility, foreign policy experience, governing experience, finances, and he's already started to gather a grassroots organization."

Huntsman is expected to make his presidential decision sometime in the late-spring or early summer.

If he does decide to run, strategists anticipate that Huntsman will downplay the Iowa caucuses and go all-in on New Hampshire - a strategy McCain successfully employed on his way to becoming the Republican nominee in 2008.

Scott Conroy is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at sconroy@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @RealClearScott.

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