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House Polls Show Freshman Democrats in Trouble

House Polls Show Freshman Democrats in Trouble

By Sean Trende - October 6, 2010


The Hill and America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA) released 12 polls today of swing districts held by freshmen Democrats.  None of them are particularly good news for the Democrats.  To summarize:

-- AZ 1, Kirkpatrick (D) 39 percent, Gosar (R) 46 percent

-- IL 11, Halvorson (D) 31 percent, Kinzinger (R) 49 percent

-- MD1, Kratovil (D) 40 percent, Harris (R) 43 percent

-- NM2, Teague (D) 42 percent, Pearce (R) 46 percent

-- OH15, Kilroy (D) 38 percent, Stivers (R) 47 percent

-- VA5, Perriello (D) 44 percent, Hurt (R) 45 percent

-- CO4, Markey (D) 41 percent, Gardner (R) 44 percent

-- MI7, Schauer (D) 41 percent, Walberg (R) 41 percent

-- NV3, Titus (D) 44 percent, Heck (R) 47 percent

-- OH16, Boccieri (D) 39 percent, Renacci (R) 42 percent

-- PA3, Dahlkemper (D) 36 percent, Kelly (R) 49 percent

-- VA12, Nye (D) 36 percent, Rigell (R) 42 percent

The headline here is that the Republicans have leads in 11 of these 12 districts, but it is really much worse than that for Democrats.  The rule of thumb is that any incumbent under 50 percent is in trouble, and any incumbent under 45 percent is deep trouble.  The best showing here is 44 percent.  The median score here is 39.5 percent.  Almost all of these incumbents have to be considered underdogs in their re-election battles at this point.

Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and author of The Lost Majority. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @SeanTrende.

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