“What the Latest Polls Told Us” will run this afternoon due to last night’s primary action.  We’re expecting a few polls in New Hampshire and Delaware, and would like to include those.

New Hampshire

Senate – In an unexpectedly close race, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leads Ovide Lamontagne by about 1,000 votes, with 50 precincts left to count.  The trend has generally favored Ayotte since early returns came in giving Lamontagne a lead, but there are “Lamontagne towns” out there.  Oddly, the more conservative Lamontagne was running better among Independents than Republicans, possibly in reaction to the Palin endorsement of Ayotte.  If Lamontagne wins, it isn’t the end of the road for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race as some have suggested (see, e.g., Delaware); Lamontagne isn’t O’Donnell and New Hampshire isn’t Delaware.  The winner will face off against Congressman Paul Hodes.

House 1 – It looked close for a while, but Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta won the GOP nod to take on Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.  Shea-Porter is far too liberal for this swing district, but Guinta – originally touted as a top flight GOP recruit – has baggage and has had trouble raising funds.

House 2 – Former Representative Charlie Bass narrowly fought off a primary challenge from talk radio host Jennifer Horn.  Bass will now be favored to take back his seat.  On the Democratic side, activist Ann McLane Kuster defeated moderate Katrina Swett, proving that it isn’t only Republicans who go on RINO/DINO hunts.  Bass is the favorite for now.

Delaware

The Republicans’ road to 51 got a lot harder last night when Christine O’Donnell defeated Rep. Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination.  I’ll probably have more to say on this race in the next few days, but here are three key takeaways:

1.  O’Donnell really can’t win. This isn’t a situation like nominating Rand Paul in Kentucky or Sharron Angle in Nevada, and it is nothing like the Mike Lee/Joe Miller/Ken Buck situations.  Lee, Miller and Buck are quality candidates running in states that can support a Republican with their level of conservatism.  In fact, I’d go so far as to say that primarying Bennett and Murkowski made a lot of sense for Republicans.  Paul and Angle are weaker candidates, but they’re running in states that can support a Republican with their level of conservatism this year.  O’Donnell is weaker than Paul or Angle, and she’s running in a state that gave Obama 62 percent of the vote.  She’ll do better than her 2008 showing, but it won’t be enough.

2.  Castle was no shoo-in.  We had the race at “Leans Republican” for a reason.  He was someone who had held statewide office for three decades, and he was polling under 50 percent.  The Republican Party of Delaware has been hemorrhaging registered voters and state representatives recently (a flight of moderates is probably why Castle lost).  Castle was the favorite, but not overwhelmingly so.

3.  There’s still a path to 51 for Republicans, but it is tight.  Basically, the GOP has to hold all of their seats (we currently favor them to do so), keep three sure pickups (ND, AR and IN), take the three races they’re probably the narrow favorites in (PA, IL, CO), and win four of six in races that are tossups (CA, NV, WA, WI) or leaning against them right now (CT, WV).  Tough, but doable.

DE At Large – The more moderate millionaire lost the House race primary in Delaware as well.  Michele Rollins came up 600 votes short against Glen Urquhart.  One wonders if the NRSC or NRCC will ever be able to recruit an electable candidate in Delaware again after this – if you were a Delaware moderate thinking of getting into politics, I think I know which party I’d choose.

District of Columbia

Mayor Adrian Fenty lost his bid for re-election, though it was closer than some had expected it would be; Fenty lost to Vincent Gray 53 percent to 46 percent.  That is tantamount to victory in the heavily Democratic district.

Maryland

Governor – Everything went as expected in the governor’s races, with Democrat Martin O’Malley and Republican Robert Ehrlich handily winning their primaries.  Nearly twice as many Democrats voted as Republicans, but that actually translates to relatively strong Republican turnout by Maryland standards.

House 1 – Club For Growth-backed Andy Harris won the Republican nomination a second time to take on Representative Frank Kratovil.  Kratovil narrowly defeated Harris in 2008, but the surge of African American voters that helped carry him to victory that year seems unlikely to materialize, and Harris probably starts with a bit of an edge.

Massachusetts

There was relatively little primary action to report here, since Republicans contested so few races.  The only real action was in the 9th and 10th districts:

House 9 – Rep. Steve Lynch faced a primary challenge from the left in retaliation for his vote against the health care bill, among other things.  Lynch won 65 percent to 35 percent, a solid, if not overwhelming margin.

House 10 – In the 10^th District, Norfolk County DA Bill Keating won the Democratic primary by a narrow 51-49 margin – about 800 votes.  Oddly enough, the last time this seat was open in 1996 the Democratic primary was close, and was decided by a recount fraught with fights over hanging and dimpled chads.  On the Republican side, state Rep. Jeff Perry won the nomination.  Perry has some baggage (as did his opponent, former Treasurer Joe Malone), but this district will be competitive.  It’s the most heavily Republican district in Massachusetts, and Scott Brown won it handily in January.

New York

Senate – In the New York Senate race, former Congressman Joe DioGuardi narrowly edged David Malpass to claim the GOP nomination.  DioGuardi is probably too conservative for the state, but it is a horrible Democratic year, incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand isn’t polling well, and the New York suburbs have been in quiet revolt against Democrats all year.  This is unlikely, but not impossible.  In the other Senate race against Charles Schumer, political strategist Jay Townsend won the nomination.

Governor – Republicans overwhelmingly chose Tea Party-affiliated Carl Paladino over former Representative Rick Lazio.  Paladino has a ton of baggage, and has been accused of forwarding pornographic and racist e-mails to friends.  Complicating matters, Lazio already has the Conservative Party nod, and doesn’t seem interested in abandoning that for the general election.  There are as many as eleven competitive House seats in New York this cycle, but this pressure from the top of the ticket won’t help Republicans any.  Democrat Andrew Cuomo remains the heavy favorite for this seat.

House 1 – Millionaire Randy Altschuler won the GOP nomination to take on Tim Bishop with 45 percent of the vote.  It’s an evenly-matched partisan district, so expect this one to be close.

House 13 – Republicans nominated Michael Grimm over establishment-favored Michael Allegretti.  That’s probably a good thing for Republicans, as Grimm had the Conservative Party nod, so there’s no risk of a split ticket here.

House 14 – Democrat Carolyn Maloney crushed her primary opponent 81 percent to 19 percent and will be returning to Congress.

House 15 – Democrat Charles Rangel likewise beat back a primary challenge and emerged from a six-way race with a surprisingly strong 51 percent of the vote.  Rangel will almost certainly win in the fall, assuming the House doesn’t convict him of ethical improprieties and expel him.

House 19 – Republican Nan Hayworth handily won her primary and will face musician-turned-Congressman John Hall.  Hayworth led Hall in the most recent independent polling, so it might be a bit surprising if Hall is still the one next winter.

House 23 – Attorney Matt Doheny upended Doug Hoffman in the Republican primary.  But because this is New York, Hoffman retains the Conservative Party line, which he plans to carry into the general election.  That makes things much easier for Rep. Bill Owens in this Republican-leaning district.

Rhode Island

The only really interesting race was in the 1st District, where the Republicans and Democrats both got their preferred candidates.  Republicans are touting state House Minority Whip John Loughlin, but it is a tough climb in this D+13 district.

Wisconsin

Things went smoothly for Republicans in the Badger State.  The GOP establishment candidates won the nominations in the Senate, Governor’s, and 3rd/7^th/8^th Congressional districts.  All three should be competitive this fall.