New House Polls Show More Trouble for Dems

New House Polls Show More Trouble for Dems

By Sean Trende - September 2, 2010

The Republican-oriented American Action Forum has been polling across the country, in an attempt to gauge where certain competitive House races stand. Their latest round covers districts in the West. The results:

-AZ-01: Republican Paul Gosar leads Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick 47 percent to 41 percent.

-AZ-05: Republican Dave Schweikert leads Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell 50 percent to 44 percent.

-AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly ties Democratic incumbent Gabby Giffords at 46 percent.

-CA-11: Repbulican David Harmer leads Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney 45 percent to 44 percent.

-CA-47: Republican Van Tran trails Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez 45 percent to 43 percent.

-CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton leads Democratic incumbent John Salazar 51 percent to 43 percent.

-CO-04: Republican Cory Gardner leads Democratic incumbent Betsy Markey 50 percent to 39 percent.

-NM-01: Republican Jon Barela trails Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 49 to 42 percent.

-NV-03: Republican Joe Heck leads Democratic incumbent Dina Titus 48 percent to 45 percent.

-OR-05: Republican Scott Bruun trails Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader 44 percent to 36 percent.

If these numbers were to come from an independent source, the safe conclusion would be that all of these Democrats except for Heinrich were likely to lose. All are below 50 percent against largely unknown competition. But we do have to account for the fact that AAF is a Republican-oriented polling outfit, and the ballot test question is asked after a bunch of favorable/unfavorable questions that could bias the results somewhat. On the other hand, we have independent polls in NV-03 and NM-01 that are consistent with the AAF findings, and AAF's poll of VA-05 showed a much closer race than SurveyUSA is showing there. I'd evaluate these polls with some skepticism, but I wouldn't outright dismiss them as partisan polling either.

Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and author of The Lost Majority. He can be reached at Follow him on Twitter @SeanTrende.

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