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How McCain Wins

By Rick Davis

If you've been watching the news or reading the paper in the past couple days, you're sure to have noticed a new tone emerging when reporters and pundits discuss John McCain. "He can win", "McCain Momentum", "McCain Comeback" are all phrases that seem to be standard whenever John McCain is mentioned. We couldn't agree more.

While in our minds we've been doing the same things: going to the townhall meetings, listening to voters and talking about the issues they care about; we're just glad they're talking about it.

We've been hearing something else over the past couple days as well. A shift in terminology from "can McCain make a comeback" to "McCain can win". This is enormously important and has the benefit of being both true and highly plausible. While it has been well-documented that John McCain is the best candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton or any Democrat in the general election, there have been lingering doubts about his ability to defeat his main opponents in the Republican Primary. Those doubts are being erased and his path to victory is becoming more clear.

There are two prevailing theories in the Republican nomination process. The strategy most campaigns have used is based on winning early and using that momentum to win in later states. This is the strategy that every successful campaign has used in the television era. The alternative strategy, followed by Rudy Giuliani, calls for trying to stay in the race while losing early contests and hoping to win in later contests such as Florida. In fact, Giuliani has been pulling resources out of New Hampshire in recent days.

Based on history and common sense, those who win early states will receive a tremendous amount of momentum that will drive voting in the subsequent states. By this time, no matter how much money is spent, those candidates that have not won a single state will not be viable.

Our plan is to win early and win big. John McCain is uniquely prepared to do this with his broad appeal to Republican and Independent voters and his ability to lead this country on day one of his presidency.

The Path to Victory:

Iowa - January 3rd: This First-In-The-Nation caucus state has always been a challenge for McCain. His organization is strong and support continues to grow. A crowded field will make a good finish here difficult - however, our leadership remains optimistic.

New Hampshire - January 8th: A state that John McCain won resoundingly in 2000; he is now competing with Mitt Romney for the top spot in NH. Recent endorsements from newspapers such as the Union Leader, the Portsmouth Herald, the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald and the endorsement of Joe Lieberman, have gone a long way in reminding Americans that John McCain is the only man ready to be commander in chief. A new poll from the Boston Globe / UNH has Senator McCain tied for first at 25%, only three points behind Mitt Romney and well within the poll's margin of error.

Michigan - January 15th: Coming close on the heels of New Hampshire, Michigan is a state that John McCain won in 2000 and in which he is currently leading in some polls. McCain is particularly well-positioned in this state because of the Independents who can vote in the Republican Primary and the lack of a competitive Democrat Primary that day.

South Carolina - January 19th: A state in which John McCain has a lot of history, South Carolina, coming quickly after NH and MI will be momentum-driven and will be carried by John McCain. In the polls, John McCain has been in the top tier of candidates for months and travels to South Carolina regularly and has a well-formed base of veteran and military support in the state.

Florida - January 29th: A state Rudy Giuliani has bet his whole campaign on, Florida will be so driven by momentum from previous victories that no amount of early money or organization will make a difference. John McCain is right on the issues in Florida and has the unique ability to bridge political divides in this historically divided state.

After this string of primaries, the nominee of our party will be pretty clear, and poised to take a final victory lap on Super Tuesday where almost half the delegates will be decided.

We believe that we will win. We have the best candidate, the only candidate ready to lead, and we have a clear path to victory through the early states and on to the nomination. John McCain is also the only Republican who can beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

The media and pundit class are beginning to realize our potential and we are hearing what we haven't heard in a long time; "McCain can win". But we need your help to get this message out. Forward this email to as many people as possible, letting them know that John McCain is the most electable candidate, not just in the general election against the Democrats - which is undisputed - but in the primary.

Rick Davis is the campaign manager for John McCain.

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