Results in 2004 EV's: After reapportionment, keeping
the states the same as 2000 gives Bush 278 electoral votes
and Kerry 260 electoral votes. 270 Electoral Votes are needed
to win. So, in order to win Kerry has to flip 10 Electoral
Votes and hold all of the Gore states. (Because ties are split
by the House of Representatives Bush can probably win with
a simplified analysis, Bush has to win both FL and OH to win.
Kerry simply has to win either FL or OH. If Kerry does not
win either FL or OH, he has very little chance
of becoming President.
one of these two states Kerry can get to 268/269 by winning
NH and NV, but to get over 270 he will have to carry either
WV or MO. It is hard to imagine Kerry losing OH, but winning
MO or WV.
needs to win both FL-27 and OH-20, but if he
were to lose one of the two he has a small chance of picking
up the lost EV's by winning some combination of either WI-10,
NM-5, MN-10, IA-7 and OR-7 (and also denying Kerry pickups
in NV and NH). Unlike Kerry's second-chance scenario, Bush
could conceivably lose OH and still hold on to the Presidency
by flipping WI and NM and holding on to NV.
Kerry loses PA or MI he loses.
Bush loses any one of AZ, CO, TN or AR he loses.