Polling on 2002 Key Governor's Races

 

Alabama                                                                  Toss Up
Poll
Date
Riley (R)
Siegelman (D)
Spread
10/28-10/31
47%
39%
GOP +8
10/21-10/24
44%
40%
GOP +4
10/21-10/22
42%
44%
Dem +2
10/14-10/17
42%
41%
GOP +1
Last 2Polls
Average
45.5%
39.5%
GOP +6.0

New independent poll shows Riley stretching his lead to eight. The poll director confirms that this race is "following the standard wounded-incumbent pattern" with a break to Riley over the last 10 days. It's not a over just yet (there are still 11% undecided) but you can almost put a fork in any incumbent polling at 39-40% and trailing by 6-8 points less than two days before the election. Riley 52% - Siegelman 45%.

Arizona (Open)                                                      Toss Up
Poll
Date
Salmon (R)
Napolitano (D)
Spread
10/29-11/1
40.1%
42.0%
Dem +1.9
10/29-11/1
41%
43%
Dem +2
10/25-10/28
37%
42%
Dem +5
10/21-10/28
36%
46%
Dem +10
10/22-10/24
42.6%
42.3%
GOP +0.3
10/21
38%
46%
Dem +8
10/14-10/20
32%
48%
Dem +16
Last 3 Polls
Average
39.4%
42.3%
Dem +2.9

The latest Rocky Mountain/Behavior Research poll has this race essentially dead even, a radical change from their two previous polls that had Napolitano up 10 and 16 points. Napolitano is up 2 points with likely voters and Salmon is up 1 among all voters. We have thought all along that because Napolitano was the darling of the Arizona media she held an edge against Salmon. However, with only four days to go and it clear Napolitano hasn't, at least yet, been able to close the sale to the Arizona people, Salmon not only has a chance, but with the obvious momentum he looks like he is the one with the edge today. Like all these races this year, this is going to be all about turnout.

Arkansas                                                           Leans GOP
Poll
Date
Huckabee (R)
Fisher (D)
Spread
Zogby Final
11/2-11/4
54%
44%
GOP +10
10/30-11/2
55%
40%
GOP +15
Zogby
10/31-11/2
51%
40%
GOP +11
10/23-10/26
49%
43%
GOP +6
10/16-10/19
46%
44%
GOP +2
Zogby
10/9-10/11
50%
40%
GOP +10
Last 2 Polls
Average
54.5%
42.0%
GOP +12.5

New CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has Huckabee up 15 points and Zogby has the race unchanged over the last three weeks with a Huckabee double-digit lead. Huckabee's numbers have improved across all demographic groups and is polling better than average with African-Americans - a group Fisher absolutely must dominate to score the upset. Huckabee 53% - Fisher 44%.

California                                                           Leans Dem
Poll
Date
Simon (R)
Davis (D)
Spread
11/1-11/3
39%
45%
Dem +6
10/25-10/30
34%
41%
Dem +7
10/25-10/27
37%
48%
Dem +11
10/22-10/27
36%
45%
Dem +9
10/18-10/20
36%
47%
Dem +11
10/7-10/15
31%
41%
Dem +10
3 Polls
Average
36.3%
43.7%
Dem +7.4

The last three polls show Davis ahead 7-11 points. The Field Poll provides some good news for Simon in that he only trails by 7 and Davis is polling a pathetic 41%. If you combine an anti-incumbent trend coupled with a Republican night on election day, you could see a HUGE surprise out on the West Coast. However, before Republicans get too exited, they shouldn't lose track of the fact Davis is the guy leading here. But Simon's got a shot, a long shot, but a shot. Davis 49% - Simon 45%.

Connecticut                                                         Safe GOP
Poll
Date
Rowland (R)
Curry (D)
Spread
10/21-10/28
59%
37%
GOP +22
Average
59.0%
37.0%
GOP +22

New Quinnipiac poll has Rowland up 22 points. He hasn't really been threatened in this race and his strength is having a positive impact on the CT House races where GOP candidates are running well ahead.

Florida                                               Toss Up/Leans GOP
Poll
Date
Bush (R)
McBride (D)
Spread
11/2-11/4
51%
46%
GOP +5
Zogby
10/31-11/2
57%
42%
GOP +15
10/26-10/31
49%
43%
GOP +6
10/28-10/29
51%
43%
GOP +8
10/23-10/25
51%
43%
GOP +8
10/22-10/25
49%
43%
GOP +6
10/22-10/24
52%
45%
GOP +7
Last 4 Polls
Average
52.0%
43.5%
GOP +8.5

SurveyUSA final has McBride within five points. Zogby, on the other hand, has Jeb Bush's lead bulging to 15 points, a twelve-point swing from three weeks ago. However, Zogby also has Jim Ryan leading in Illinois, which is a joke. McBride's very poor debate performance and Bush's attacks on taxes have served to halt the momentum that McBride appeared to have. But it is ridiculous to think Bush is ahead by 15 points. This is one state where Democrats will definitely turn out, and that will make this race closer than the polls currently indicate. Bush 51% - McBride 48%.

Hawaii                                                                     Toss Up
Poll
Date
Lingle (R)
Hirono (D)
Spread
10/26-10/30
44%
43%
GOP +1
10/17-10/24
40%
40%
Tie
10/19-10/23
44%
40%
GOP +4
Average
42.7%
41.0%
GOP +1.7

Lingle, the Republican Mayor of Maui County who lost to outgoing Governor Ben Cayetano 50%-49% in 1998, is again running a strong campaign against Lt. Gov. Hirono. Despite strong debate performances, Lingle has watched her lead dwindle and undecideds rise to between 15-20%. This will be another close finish. It looks like Republicans are poised to capture the state house here for the first time since 1962. Lingle 49% - Hirono 48%.

Illinois                                                                Leans Dem
Poll
Date
Ryan (R)
Blagojevich (D)
Spread
10/30-11/1
43.5%
43.2%
GOP +0.2
10/28-10/30
39%
53%
Dem +14
10/28-10/30
42%
53%
Dem +11
10/25-10/27
37%
47%
Dem +10
10/21-10/23
40%
52%
Dem +12
KRC Comm
10/21-10/22
38%
50%
Dem +12
IL Weslyan U.
10/20-10/22
40%
46%
Dem +6
Last 3 Polls
Average
41.5%
49.7%
Dem +8.2

Sometimes Zogby's numbers just drive you nuts. The 4 most recent polls in this race had Blagojevich up double digits and along comes Zogby with this one. I think most people agree that Ryan did make a slight surge after the debate incident, but that any momentum has since faded. We'll be absolutely amazed if the race is anywhere near close. Blagojevich 53%, Ryan 44%

Iowa                                                    Toss Up/Leans Dem
Poll
Date
Gross (R)
Vilsack (D)
Spread
10/29-11/1
40%
52%
Dem +12
10/27-10/29
42%
56%
Dem +14
10/20-10/22
41%
55%
Dem +14
Research 2000
10/13-10/16
42%
50%
Dem +8
10/6-10/8
46%
50%
Dem +4
KCCI
10/1-10/3
41%
50%
Dem +9
Last 2 Polls
Average
41.0%
54.0%
Dem +13.0

New Iowa poll has Gross trailing by twelve, a pickup of 6 points since the last Iowa poll in September. The article in the Des Moines Register contains this intriguing tidbit: "Other poll findings suggest Gross has momentum that is drawing him even closer to his Democratic opponent." Too late for an upset? Probably. Vilsack 51%, Gross 43%

Maryland (Open)                                                   Toss Up
Poll
Date
Ehrlich (R)
Townsend (D)
Spread
10/31-11/2
51%
46%
GOP +5
10/28-10/29
47%
46%
GOP +1
10/26-10/28
48%
44%
GOP +4
10/25-10/27
48%
49%
Dem +1
10/22-10/25
47%
47%
Tie
10/14-10/20
46%
45%
GOP +1
10/18-10/20
48%
48%
Tie
10/14
45%
46%
Dem +1
Last 3 Polls
Average
48.7%
45.3%
GOP +3.4

Three polls in a row have Ehrlich up in the low single-digits. This one is going to be a squeaker, but there is no denying Ehrlich has the edge. We think he maintains it on election day. Ehrlich 52% - Townsend 48%.

Massachusetts (Open)                                        Toss Up
Poll
Date
Romney (R)
O'Brien (D)
Spread
10/29-10/30
40%
41%
Dem +1
10/25-10/27
38%
44%
Dem +6
NECN
10/24-10/27
39%
41%
Dem +2
10/20-10/22
37.2%
36.7%
GOP +0.5
10/7-10/9
40%
42%
Dem +2
Last 3 Polls
Average
39.0%
42.0%
Dem +3.0

New Boston Globe poll has this race a total dead heat. This could go either way, but the Democrats have been out of office in Massachusetts for 12 years. This is still a very Democratic state, in our mind that gives O'Brien the advantage. O'Brien 46% - Romney 45%.

Michigan (Open)                                              Leans Dem
Poll
Date
Posthumus (R)
Granholm (D)
Spread
11/1-11/3
46%
52%
Dem +6
10/30-11/3
37%
51%
Dem +14
10/28-30
38%
51%
Dem +13
10/27-29
41%
54%
Dem +13
10/25-27
42%
55%
Dem +13
10/21-23
39%
47%
Dem +8
10/20-22
37%
51%
Dem +14
Last 4 Polls
Average
40.5%
52.0%
Dem +11.5

New SurveyUSA shows Posthumus closing. It will be too little too late. Granholm has successfully fended off Posthumus' attacks on a variety of issues and hasn't suffered even the slightest drop in support throughout. Granholm 53% - Posthumus 46%.

Minnesota (Open)                                                 Toss Up
Poll
Date
Pawlenty (R)
Moe (D)
Penny (I)
Spread
10/30-11/1
36%
32%
16%
GOP +4
10/30-11/1
35%
32%
16%
GOP +3
Zogby
10/31-11/2
35%
34%
18%
GOP +1
10/28
33%
29%
19%
GOP +4
10/13-27
30%
27%
26%
GOP +3
10/11-16
29%
29%
27%
TIE
10/11-12
23%
30%
34%
Ind +4
Zogby
10/9-11
30%
25%
27%
GOP +3
Last 3 Polls
Average
35.3%
32.7%
16.7%
GOP +2.6

New polls have both Pawlenty and Moe picking up a few points at the expense of Penny. Wellstone's death has energized both bases. This race is very close and there are still 10-14% undecideds still around: Pawlenty 42%, Moe 40%, Penny 15%

2002 Senate Races
2002 House Races

 

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