2002 Key House Races

AL-3: Attack of the Clones: Similar Candidates Duking it Out (Tuscaloosa News 11/02)
AL-3: Alabama House Seat Crucial for Control of Congress (Auburn Plainsman 10/24)
AL-3: Rogers, Turnham Test Theory That All Politics is Local (Associated Press 10/21)
AL-3: Rogers Outraises Turnham in Money Duel (Sarasota Herald-Tribune/AP 10/16)
AL-3: Social Security Issue Has Rogers on the Run (Mobile Register 10/7)
AL-3: Congressional Election Could Swing Control (Birmingham News, 9/30)
AL-3: Rogers (R) 44%, Turnham (D) 32% (Mike Rogers for Congress 9/19)  GOP+12

AZ-1: Renzi (R) 46%, Cordova (D) 34% (Public Opinion Strat (R) 10/22-23) GOP +12
AZ-1: Renzi (R) 48%, Cordova (D) 36% (Arizona Daily Sun 10/22) GOP +12
AZ-1: Social inSecurity in House Race (Arizona Daily Sun 10/20)
AZ-1: Renzi's Campaign Manager Resigns After DUI Arrest (The Lumberjack 10/19)
AZ-1: Sparks Fly in Race for 1st District Seat (Casa Grande Dispatch 10/15)
AZ-1: Congressional Candidate Glosses Over Resume (Arizona Republic 10/9)

CA-18: Battle for Condit's Deat One of Nation's Hottest (Oakland Tribune 10/21)
CA-18: Condits Lash Out at Cardoza (Modesto Bee 10/17)
CA-18: Will Dems Retain Toehold in GOP-leaning Central Valley? (Sacramento Bee, 10/14)
CA-18: Montieth (R) 42%, Cardoza (D) 36% (Merced Sun-Star 10/7) GOP+6

CO:-4: Longtime GOPers Back Matsunaka (Denver Post 10/24)
CO-4: Musgrave (R) 48%, Matsunaka (D) 31% (Ciruli Associates 10/18) GOP +17
CO-4: Musgrave Rips Matsunaka on Taxes (Denver Post 10/9)
CO-7: Sharp Contrast in 7th (Denver Post 10/24)

CO-7: Gun Ad Hits Beauprez (Rocky Mountain News 10/29)
CO-7: Feeley (D) 38%, Beauprez (R) 40% (Denver Post 10/18) GOP +2
CO-7: A Tough but Civilized House Fight in Colorado (Reuters 10/15)
CO-7: Feeley (D) 39%, Beauprez (R) 39% (Denver Post 10/11) TIE
House Races Join Millionaire's Club (Denver Post 10/16)

CT-2: Simmons (R) 45%, Courtney (D) 33% (UConn 10/24-10/30) GOP +12
CT-2: Norwich is Site of Latest 2nd District Debate (Norwich Bulletin 10/24)
CT-2: Power Visitors Indicate 2nd District Race is Tight (Norwich Bulletin 10/22)
CT-2: Prescription Drug Plans Big Issue in 2nd District (Stamford Advocate 10/21)
CT-2: Ads Heat Up in 2nd District Race (Hartford Courant 10/19)
CT-2: Clinton Rolls In, Fires Up Courtney Campaign (Hartford Courant 10/15)
CT-2: Simmons (R) 53%, Courtney (D) 34% (New Haven Register, 10/13) GOP +19
CT-2: Simmons (R) 41%, Courtney (D) 23% (Norwich Bulletin 9/25) GOP+18

CT-5: Johnson (R) 50%, Maloney (D) 41% (Research 2000 10/29-31) GOP +9
CT-5: Johnson (R) 56%, Maloney (D) 36% (UConn 10/24-31) GOP +17
CT-5: Maloney And Johnson Come Out Fighting in Debate (Hartford Courant 10/21)
CT-5: 5th District Race Down To Wire (Hartford Courant 10/20)
CT-5: Johnson (R) 56%, Maloney (D) 38% (Hartford Courant 10/17) GOP+18
CT-5: Johnson Out Front In Fund-Raising (Hartford Courant 10/16)
CT-5: Johnson (R) 45%, Maloney (D) 38% (New Haven Register 10/13) GOP+7
CT-5: Johnson (R) 50%, Maloney (D) 34% (Hartford Courant 10/9) GOP+16
CT-5: Johnson (R) 42%, Maloney (D) 42% (GQR (D) 10/6-7) TIE


Money vs. Veterans in Central Florida House Races (Palm Beach Post 10/24)
FL-5: New District Heats Up Race for Congress (Orlando Sentinel 10/21)
FL-5: Candidate's Husband Steals Signs, Causes Flap (Miami Herald 10/12)
FL-5: In Backstretch, U.S. House Race Tightens (St. Petersburg Times 10/10)
FL-5: Democrat Seat in Peril (Washington Post/CQ 10/1)

FL-7: Mica (R) 51%, Hogan (D) 35% (Orlando Sentinel 10/14) GOP+16

FL-8: Keller (R)* 57%, Diaz (D) 28% (Orlando Sentinel 10/15) GOP +29

FL-22: Shaw (R)* 56%, Roberts (D) 30% (American Viewpoint (R) 10/15-16) GOP +26

FL-24: Feeney (R) 51%, Jacobs (D) 32% (Orlando Sentinel 10/7) GOP+19

FL-25: Democrat Running for House Wants to Alter Cuba Policy (Miami Herald 10/4)

Republicans Fight to Overcome Underdog Image (Washington Post/CQ 10/9)
G.O.P. Puts Up Surprising Fight in Districts Drawn by Democrats (NY Times 10/4)

GA-3: Marshall (D) 41%, Clay (R) 40% (Public Opinion Strat 10/21-22) DEM+1
GA-3: Marshall (D) 45%, Clay (R) 38% (Macon Telegraph 10/17)
GA-3: Marshall (D) 50%, Clay (R) 33% (Macon Telegraph 10/17)  DEM+17
GA-3: Clay, Marshall Agree on Iraq, Part Ways on Social Security (Access North Ga. 10/14)

GA-11: Kahn vs. Gingrey Debate Gets Fiery (Atlanta JC 10/21)
GA-11: Kahn (D) 43%, Gingrey (R) 39% (The Daily Tribune News 9/23) DEM+4

GA-12: Georgia's Walker Is No Walkover in House Race (Washington Post/CQ 10/31)
GA-12: Election is More Than Test of 2 Men (Augusta Chronicle 10/27)
GA-12: Burns (R) 48%, Walker (D) 33% (Tarrance Group (R) 10/22-23) GOP +15

IL-19: Shimkus (R) 52%, Phelps (D) 36% (NRCC 10/22-23) GOP +16
IL-19: Shimkus/Phelps Race Heating Up (The Edwardsville Intelligencer 10/24)
IL-19: Shimkus (R) 51%, Phelps (D) 38% (NRCC 10/11) GOP+13
IL-19: Candidates Take Off the Gloves (Evansville Courier-Press 10/6)
IL-19: Fire, Brimstone Fill House Race (Chicago Tribune 10/5)

Indiana Congressional Races May Affect Power Balance (Indianapolis Star 10/14)
IN-2: Chocola (R) 49%, Long-Thompson (D) 46% (Research 2000 10/29-10/29) GOP +3
IN-2: Chocola (R) 47%, Long-Thompson (D) 35% (WNDU-TV 10/20) GOP +12
IN-2: Long-Thompson (D) 45%, Chocola (R) 43% (Lake Snell Perry (D) 10/20) DEM+2
IN-2: Long-Thompson (D) 47%, Chocola (R) 46% (South Bend Tribune 10/13) DEM+1
IN-2: Long-Thompson (D) 47%, Chocola (R) 43% (South Bend Tribune 10/1) DEM+4

IN-7: Carson (D) 43%, McVey (R) 42% (Indianapolis Star 11/1) DEM +1
IN-7: Carson (D) 46%, McVey (R) 37% (WISH-TV 10/29) DEM +9
IN-7: Carson Gets More Help From Dems (WISH-TV 10/25)
IN-7: Carson (D) 42%, McVey (R) 38% (Indianapolis Star 10/1)

IN-9: Dems Aim to Keep Hill Country (Washington Post/CQ 10/9)

GOP Polls Show Republicans Fighting Hard All Over Iowa (Des Moines Register 10/31)
Iowa House Races a Model of Parity (LA Times 10/16)
IA-1: Nussle Dialing For Dollars (Time Magazine 10/14)

IA-2: Leach's Re-election in Jeopardy (Roll Call 10/14)
IA-2: G.O.P. Candidate's Antiwar Vote Proves Popular (NY Times 10/10)
IA-2: Leach Breaks With GOP, Opposes Attacking Iraq (Des Moines Register 10/4)

IA-3: District Sees Few Real Debates - Des Moines Register (10/10)

IA-4: Norris, Latham Debate Medicare and Iraq (Waterloo Cedar Falls Courier 10/7)

KS-3: Moore Ahead of Taff by 3 Points in Latest Poll (KC Star 10/29)

KS-3: Moore, Taff Spar in Debate (KC Star 10/16)
KS-3: Moore and Taff Unleash Bombs (Johnson County Sun 10/11)
KS-3: Incumbent Moore (D) Sees Himself As a Bipartisan Independent (KC Star 9/30)

KS-4: Candidates' Paths Differ in Last Week (Wichita Eagle 10/29)

KS-4: Tihart (R) 51%, Nolla (D) 42% (Wichita Eagle 10/22) GOP +9
KS-4: Tiahrt (R) 52%, Nolla (D) 41% (Wichita Eagle 9/24) GOP+11

KY-3: Gephardt Stumps for Conway (Louisville Courier-Jrnl 10/30)
KY-3: Northup Fighting Off Conway (Cincinnati Post 10/29)
KY-3: Sex and Ethics Fuel Kentucky Race (Fox News 10/28)
KY-3: Northup (R)* 51%, Conway (D) 46% (Survey USA, 10/22-10/24) GOP +5
KY-3: Northup (R)* 53%, Conway (D) 45% (Survey USA, 10/15-10/17) GOP +8
KY-3: Congressional Race Gets National Attention (Louisville Courier-Jrnl 10/13)
KY-3: Northup (R)* 50%, Conway (D) 46% (Survey USA, 10/4) GOP +4

KY-4: Voter Turnout Key to 4th District (Kentucky Post 11/2)
KY-4: Lucas (D) 51%, Davis (R) 46% (Survey USA. 10/27 - 10/29) DEM +5
KY-4: Lucas (D) 54%, Davis (R) 43% (Survey USA. 10/13 - 10/15) DEM +11
KY-4: Airwaves Heat Up in Lucas/Davis Race (Kentucky Post 10/12)

ME: Raye, Michaud Head Down to the Wire (Bangor News 11/2)
ME-2: Raye (R) 38%, Michaud (D) 48% (Strategic Mkting Svcs 10/24-27) DEM +10

ME-2: Raye (R) 35.8%, Michaud (D) 36.5% (RKM Research 10/23-26) DEM +0.7
ME-2: Profiles of Kevin Raye (R) and Mike Michaud (D) (Portland Press Herald 10/21)
ME-2: Raye (R) 44%, Michaud (D) 38% (Bangor Daily News 10/14) GOP +6
ME-2: Raye Vies For Congressional Seat (Lewiston Sun-Journal 10/13)

Funding Gaps Narrow in Bids for Congress (Baltimore Sun (10/16)
MD-2: Ruppersberger (D) 46%, Bentley (R) 38% (Baltimore Sun 10/31) DEM +8
MD-2: 2nd District Draws Outside Attention (Baltimore Sun 10/30)
MD-2: Maryland is Site of Key House Battleground (Washington Post 10/29)
MD-2: Ruppersberger (D) 47%, Bentley (R) 43% (Gonzales/Arscott 10/14-20) DEM +4
MD-2: Ruppersberger Likes Being in Driver's Seat (Baltimore Sun 10/20)
MD-2: A Civil Exchange in Bid for Congress (Baltimore Sun 10/15)
MD-2: Bentley (R) 42%, Ruppersberger (D) 40% (Baltimore Sun, 10/2) GOP+2

MD-8: Morella (R) 44%, Van Hollen (D) 42% (Potomac Research 10/26-28) GOP +2
MD-8: Morella (R) 44%, Van Hollen (D) 42% (Gonzales/Arscott 10/14-20)
GOP +2
MD-8: Morella Cites Value of Keeping Her in GOP House (Washington Post 10/17)
MD-8: For Morella, Independence Carries a Cost (Washington Post 10/15)

MD-8: Morella Goes On the Attack In New Ad (Washington Post 10/11)
MD-8: Van Hollen (D) 43%, Morella (R) 40% (Baltimore Sun, 10/2) DEM+3

MI-10: Miller Out Front With Cash, Airtime (Detroit Free-Press 10/29)
MI-10: Marlinga Getting Lost in Miller's Dust (Macomb Daily News 10/20)
MI-10: Miller (R) 51%, Marlinga (D) 29% (Macomb Daily News 10/15) GOP +22

MI-11: Big Guns Try to Swing a Key Race (Detroit Free-Press 10/28)
MI-11: Stark Differences Define 2 Candidates in a Close Race in MI (NY Times 10/18)
MI-11: Debate Centers on Iraq (Detroit News 10/10)

MN-2: Senate, 2nd District Races Seen as Pivotal (St. Paul Pioneer-Press 10/18)
MN-2: Luther Deflects Questions on Garst's Sham Bid (Minneapolis Star 9/28)

MN-6: Tough Race Turns Off Voters (Associated Press 10/12)
MN-6: Lots of Talk, Few Debates in Congressional Race (Minn. Public Radio 10/17)
MN-6: GOP Questions Roberts' Campaign Fund (Minneapolis Star-Tribune 10/11)

MN-7: Flying Candidates Prowl District for Votes (Minneapolis Star-Tribune 10/14)

MS-3: Native Sons Battle it Out (Biloxi Sun-Herald 10/31)
MS-3: AARP Endorsement Could Boost Shows (Jackson Clarion-Ledger 10/20)
MS-3: Pickering, Shows Prepare for Election Day Face-off (Daily Mississippian 10/15)
MS-3: Campaigns Shift Gear as Nov. 5 Nears (Starkville Daily News, 10/14)

NV-1: Berkley (D) 51%, McDonald (R) 38% (Las Vegas Review-Jrnl 10/25) DEM +13
NV-1: Berkley (D) 50%, McDonald (R) 29% (Public Opinion Strat (R) 10/21) DEM +21
NV-1: Berkley (D) 51%, McDonald (R) 30% (Mellman Group (D) 10/21) DEM +21

NV-3: An In Depth Look at the CD3 Race (Las Vegas Review-Jrnl 10/27)
NV-3: Porter (R) 46%, Herrera (D) 34% (Las Vegas Review-Jrnl 10/25) GOP +12
NV-3: Race Between Porter and Herrera Gets Nasty (SF Chronicle 10/18)
NV-3: Mud Flies in Nevada Race (LA Times 10/13)

New Hampshire
NH-1: Bradley (R) 49%, Clark (D) 31% (UNH 10/23-10/29) GOP +18
NH-1: Bradley (R) 49%, Clark (D) 41% (Becker Institute 1022-10/23) GOP +8

NH-1: Bradley (R) 53%, Clark (D) 39% (American Research Group 10/25) GOP +14
NH-1: Bradley (R) 54%, Clark (D) 35% (American Research Group, 10/18) GOP+19
NH-1: Bradley (R) 47%, Clark (D) 34% (University of New Hampshire, 10/11) GOP+13

NH-2: Bass (R) 47%, Swett (D) 41% (UNH 10/23-10/29)
GOP +6
NH-2: Bass (R) 56%, Swett (D) 34% (Becker Institute 10/22-10/23) GOP +22
NH-2: Bass (R) 54%, Swett (D) 35% (American Research Group 10/25)
GOP +19
NH-2: Bass is No Moderate, Swett Says (Nashua Telegraph 10/24)
NH-2: Bass (R) 54%, Swett (D) 33% (American Research Group 10/18) GOP+21

NH-2: Bass (R) 52%, Swett (D) 30% (University of New Hampshire 10/11) GOP+22

New Jersey
New Map Give Incumbents the Edge (New Jersey Star-Leger 10/27)
NJ-5: Garrett (R) 49%, Sumers (D) 41%, (Bergen Record 10/24) GOP +8
NJ-5: Garrett (R) 48%, Sumers (D) 33% (Public Opinion Strat (R) 10/22) GOP +15
NJ-5: Garrett (R) 42%, Sumers (D) 40% (Penn,Schoen&Berland (D) 10/12-13) GOP+2
NJ-5: Sumers Hopes Voters Liken Her to Roukema (North Jersey News 10/20)
NJ-5: Garrett Has Problem; Her Name is Sumers (The Daily Record 10/18)
NJ-5: New Jersey Race to Play Key Role in House Control (Parsippany Daily Record 10/15)
NJ-5: Garrett, Sumers tone it down (New Jersey Herald 10/14)

New Mexico
Bush Revs N.M. GOP Candidates (Albuquerque Tribune 10/29)
New Mexico Has Unusually Competitive House Slate (Washington Post/CQ 10/18)
NM-1: Wilson (R) 48%, Romero (D) 40% (Santa Fe New Mexican 11/1) GOP +8
NM-1: Wilson (R) 51%, Romero (D) 39% (El Paso Times, 10/14) GOP+12

NM-2: Congressional Race Wide Open (Roll Call 10/17)
NM-2: Pearce (R) 38%, Smith (D) 36% (El Paso Times, 10/14) GOP+2

New York
NY-1: Grucci (R) 39%, Bishop (D) 38% (Cooper & Secrest (D) 10/14-16) GOP +1

North Carolina
NC-8: Hayes, Kouri Keep Attacking (Charlotte Observer 10/30)
NC-8: Hayes Faces Another Challenge in 8th District Race (Raleigh N &O 10/27)
NC-8: Race Focuses on Hayes' Record (Charlotte Observer 10/22)
NC-8: Rep. Hayes Leads Region in Funds Raised (Fayetteville Observer-Times 10/16)
NC-8: Hayes (R) 48%, Kouri (D) 36% (Fayetteville Observer-Times 10/7) GOP+12

NC-13: Grant, Miller Compete for New House District (WRAL, 10/20)

North Dakota
ND-AL: Bush Adviser Stumps for Clayburgh (Grand Forks Herald/AP 10/23)

OH-3: Congressional Race a Duel of Styles (Columbus Dispatch 10/31)
OH-3: Carne, Turner Agree, Disagree on Best Path (Dayton Daily News 10/21)
OH-3: Democrat Carne Outspent 2-1 by Turner in 3rd District (Associated Press 10/16)
GOP Looking to Pick Up 2 House Seats In Ohio (Associated Press 10/15)

OK-4: Cole (R) 46%, Roberts (D) 39% (Cole,Hargrave,Snodgrass (R) 10/17-20) GOP +7
OK-4: Cole (R) 46%, Roberts (D) 45% (Hamilton Beattie (D) 10/14-16) GOP +1

PA-6: A Congressional Race Saturated With Attacks (Philly Inquirer 10/31)

PA-13: Words Fly in Final Days of 13th District Battle (Philly Inquirer 11/2)
PA-13: Hoeffel (D) 43%, Brown (R) 35% (Public Opinion Strat (R) 10/31) DEM +8

PA-15: Gore Backs O'Brien Against Toomey (Pottstown Mercury 10/19)

PA-17: Liberal Label Dogs Democrat in Key House Race (Penn Live 10/24)
PA-17: Gekas-Holden Race Heats Up (Fox News 10/21)
PA-17: The Gekas-Holden Showdown (Roll Call 10/17)
PA-17: Gekas-Holden Race Tests GOP's Remap Art (Washington Post/CQ 10/16)
PA-17: Pennsylvania Incumbents Clash in Key House Race (Reuters 10/14)
PA-17: Gekas, Holden Throw Verbal Punches at Forum (Lebanon Patriot-News 10/8)
PA-17: Holden (D) 48%, Gekas (R) 38% (Roll Call 9/26) DEM+10

South Dakota
SD-AL: Janklow (R) 47%, Herseth (D) 42% (KELO-TV 10/30) GOP +5
SD-AL: A South Dakota Race Is More Opposites Than Issues (New York Times 10/20)
SD-AL: Herseth Shows Heft Against Janklow in S.D. House Race (Wash Post 10/18)
SD-AL: Herseth (D) 45%, Janklow (R) 41% (KELO-TV 10/11) DEM+4
SD-AL: Candidates Push Pet Issues (Argus Leader 10/9)
SD-AL: Janklow (R) 47%, Herseth (D) 40% (Argus Leader 9/28) GOP+7

Stakes High for 4th, 5th District Congressional Seats (Knoxville News-Sentinel 10/20)
TN-4: Tight 4th Race Gets National Notice (Tennessean 10/31)
TN-4: Davis, Bowling Even in Funds Race (Knoxville News-Sentinel/AP 10/17)
TN-4: Davis Not Anti-gun or Anti-God (Knoxville News-Sentinel 10/16)
TN-4: Democrats See 4th District as Chance to Retake House (Nashville Tennessean 9/29)

House Races Marked by Angst, High Energy (Houston Chronicle 10/27)
TX-5: Hensarling (R) 47%, Chapman (D) 36% (Baselice&Assoc(R),10/20-21) GOP +11
TX-5: Hensarling Leads Chapman in Money Race (Dallas Monring News 10/16)
TX-5: Congressional Candidate Faces Fine (Dallas Morning News 10/4)

TX-11: Edwards (D) 50%, Farley (R) 42% (Roll Call 10/7) DEM+8

TX-25: House Hopefuls Seeing Red Over Acidic TV Ads (Houston Chronicle 11/1)
TX-25: Reiser (R) 41%, Bell (D) 39% (Arthur Finkelstein & Assocs (R) 10/22)
GOP +2

UT-2: GOP Hopes to Swallow Matheson With Ad Push (Salt Lake Tribune 10/30)
UT-2: National Groups Pouring Big Bucks Into Utah Race (Deseret News 10/29)

WA-2: Economy, Security Keys in 2nd District (Everett Herald 10/24)
WA-2: Smith (R) 42%, Larsen (D) 39% (American Viewpoint (R) 10/21-10/22) GOP +3
WA-2: Larsen (D) Crushing Smith (R) in Fundraising Race (Seattle Times 10/16)

West Virginia
WV-2: Bush Visits, Calls Capito a "Breath of Fresh Air" (Charleston Daily Mail 11/1)
WV-2: Capito (R) 50%, Humphreys (D) 32% (WCHS-TV 10/30) GOP +18
WV-2: Capito (R) 53%, Humphreys (D) 32% (WV MetroNews 10/28) GOP +21
WV-2: Congressional Race at Center of Storm (Charleston Daily Mail 10/18)
WV-2: Capito-Humphreys Race Running Up High Price Tag (Fox News, 10/14)

GOP PICKUP or DEM LOSS (CA-18, CT-5, FL-24, IL-19)


Projections above based solely on latest polls listed below.

GOP PICKUP or DEM LOSS (AZ-1, CO-7, FL-24, FL-25, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MS-3, NV-3)


Projections above based solely on latest polls listed below.







Generic Congressional Stories

GOP Predicts House Gains
(Roll Call 10/31)

To Retake House, Democrats Campaign on Buddy System
(NY Times 10/31)

Cash Crunch Hits House Democrats Down the Stretch
(Roll Call 10/31)

Republicans Discount Possible House Losses
(The Hill 10/30)

House Hopefuls Look for Bump From Late Spending
(Washington Post/CQ 10/29)

Poll Results Favor GOP's Chances in House
(Baltimore Sun/AP 10/27)

Highlights of Key U.S. House Races (Reuters 10/27)

Moving Targets in House
(Roll Call 10/24)

No Key Issue in a House Divided (Washington Post 10/22)

Economic Woes Just Aren't Giving Dems an Edge
(USA Today 10/18)

GOP Election Strategy: Stress Positives, Ignore the Rest
(New York Times 10/18)

Many House Races Still Very Close
(ABC News/AP 10/16)

Election '02: Turnout vs. Tune Out
(Business Week 10/16)

Whose House Is It, Anyway?
(CBS News 10/14)

The House in Balance
(CBN 10/14)

The Battle for Control of Congress
(The Economist 10/14)

Election Outlook Still Cloudy
(USA Today 10/13)

Election 2002 Too Close to Call
(UPI 10/11)

Can Republicans Hold the House?
(CNN 10/11)