RCP Analysis (Final Update - October 7, 7:27 am):
The late polls continue to show significant slippage
away from Schwarzenegger and towards both Davis and Bustamante.
Survey USA's final poll (taken Friday through Sunday after
the LA Times story broke) shows the "Yes on
recall" number dropping 4 points from their previous
poll taken only 5 days earlier. Even worse for Schwarzenegger,
the spread on recall within the three day poll moved from
25 on Friday to only 14 on Sunday. Obviously, if the same
rate of deterioration were to continue through Monday and
today, the election could be a real nail biter. Remember,
Davis doesn't have to get more "No" votes on recall
than "Yes" votes, he just has to keep the "Yes"
vote percentage under 50.0%.
On
the second question, the same Survey USA poll shows Schwarzenegger's
lead over Bustamante dropping from 20 on Friday to 12 on
Sunday. McClintock's numbers have flat-lined and actually
slipped two points in the Survey USA poll to 14%.
So
it appears the LA Times hit piece last Thursday did
exactly what it was designed to do: take a big bite out
of Schwarzenegger's momentum and give Davis a chance to
stay alive. However, in the end we don't feel this is going
to change any of the final results - except the margin of
victory for Schwarzenegger and the pro-recall forces. It's
important to keep in mind that close to 2 million votes
were probably cast before the decline in Arnold's
support started. If the election day numbers are very close,
we suspect those absentee votes will provide the margin
of victory for Schwarzenegger.
There
is likely to be a huge turnout today, and even with all
the allegations swirling around we suspect the turnout will
still disproportionately help Schwarzenegger. In the end
this election is about change and Californians' disgust
with the direction of the state and its current leadership.
Gray Davis and Cruz Bustamante represent that failed political
leadership, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is the only realistic
vote for change.
The
dustup from the groping and Hitler stories has prevented
this election from becoming a monster blowout and has given
Gray Davis the smallest hope that he still might be able
to pull out a victory. But there is evidence these stories
have also created a backlash among portions of the electorate,
including many hard-core Republicans who see it as a politically
motivated hit job by the LA Times. As a result, don't
be too surprised to see a number of Republicans who were
going to vote for McClintock switch their vote to Schwarzenegger
solely out of anger toward the liberal machine desperate
to stay in power.
Bottom
line: Schwarzenegger beats Bustamante easily (10 points
or more) and while we think Davis will still be recalled
with a vote somewhere around 57%, these ninth-inning revelations
have taken a toll and give the Democrats hope - albeit
a very small one - that Davis may indeed keep his job. However,
hope in the end won't be enough for the Democrats, and California
and the country should get ready for Governor Schwarzenegger.
October
3: We felt Gray Davis had a small chance (very small)
to survive the recall if he could get his "No-on-Recall"
numbers up to 45% in our RCP
average prior to election day. However, only one poll
has shown his numbers above 45% during the entire race (LA
Times, 9/6-10) and the most recent batch of polls, inducing
the Times', show Davis's numbers slipping badly. Our RCP
average has the recall currently favored to pass 59-38 and
at that level, with less than five days to go, Davis is
all but finished.
Bustamante's
only hope was for a post-debate surge by McClintock to siphon
just enough conservative votes away from Arnold to give
the him a shot at winning on Question 2. It's not going
to happen. Arnold
leads Bustamante by more than 12 points in our RCP average,
and that's with McClintock polling at 16%. Given that we
expect Arnold's final numbers on election night to be better
than our RCP average, Bustamante should start looking for
a new job.
Clearly,
since last week's debate this race has broken Arnold's way.
At the beginning of the week it looked as if Arnold might
well outpoll Davis's recall total and even had a slight
chance of reaching 50%. We'll have to wait and see if the
recent stink bombs dropped by the LA
Times and ABC
News do anything to slow his momentum. Even if these
late hits do take a toll on Arnold, odds are this will mean
Schwarzenegger still wins, but in a much closer race. And
there's a very real possibility - especially when you see
pieces
like this (and kudos to the LA Times for publishing
it) - that the media's last-minute dumping on Arnold will
backfire with voters.
While
there have been many twists and turns these last two months,
the reality is Schwarzenegger became the heavy favorite
against Bustamante as soon as he announced on Jay Leno.
Overall, Arnold has run a darn good campaign and done nothing
to diminish his chances. Bustamante, on the other hand,
has run the pathetic campaign we anticipated from him, and
whatever momentum Davis may have had was blown out of the
water by the 9th Circuit's political interference with the
election. Californians should get ready for Governor Schwarzenegger.
September 25:
After several weeks in late August and early September with
not much action in the California Recall, the last ten days
(the election
was off then
back on, followed by last
night's debate) has taken the race directly into the
stretch run. As far as who has the upper hand hand and is
likely to win, very little has changed from our original
analysis: Arnold Schwarzenegger is highly likely to be the
next Governor of California.
First,
the interference by the court in temporarily halting the
election looks to have significantly hurt Governor Davis's
chances of surviving the recall. Prior to the three judge
panel's decision, Davis appeared to have been generating
some momentum and it looked like he might have a fighting
chance on election day.However,
the court's blatant political interference served to re-energize
the supporters of recall and has given the anti-Davis side
the fourth-quarter shakeup that should run well into election
day. As it stands today, Davis faces a very uphill battle
on October 7.
Second,
last night's debate - the only debate that will have any
effect on the election - was a solid win for Schwarzenegger.
It wasn't a home run by Arnold, but he came across as more
than competent and his closing statement offered the voters
of California something none of the other candidates did:
the hope for leadership. All the media whining, post and
pre-debate about how the voters need to here more specifics
is just that: whining. Schwarzenegger seems to grasp that
what the voters really want is change and leadership. Bustamante
and McClintock as life long pols are not poster boys for
major change in Sacramento.
Having
said all this, the one fly in the ointment on Arnold's path
to the statehouse is Tom McClintock. Though Arnold was certainly
a winner in last night's debate, McClintock gave a performance
that conservatives loved. He came across as extremely competent
and scored points among California's conservatives with
his answers on illegal immigration and Prop. 54, two of
the few positions where he and Arnold differ. The problem
with McClintock is that he did nothing to expand his votes
outside of that hard-core conservative voting bloc.
Bustamante's
best chance for victory remains the hope that McClintock
can hang onto just enough of the conservative vote to allow
him to squeeze out a victory over Arnold. Bustamante gave
an uninspiring though competent performance which didn't
hurt him that much, but really didn't help him that much
either. Maybe he believes the LA
Times poll that shows him ahead, but we feel he lost
a golden opportunity to impress upon the voters that he
could be a leader for positive change in Sacramento. His
strategy appears to be nothing more than to stay low, don't
screw up, try and crank out as much of the Democratic base
vote as possible and pray McClintock gets a huge chunk of
the conservative vote. However, we suspect in the closing
days of the campaign more and more conservatives will see
this as a two-way race between Arnold and the Democrats
(Davis and Bustamante) and enough conservatives will vote
"yes" on recall and also for Arnold, dashing Bustamante's
hopes of becoming the accidental Governor. Another wild
card which favors Arnold is the question of voter turnout,
which we anticipate will be huge and will disproportionately
help Schwarzenegger.
Bottom
line: with 12 days to go Davis looks headed for defeat on
Question 1. And unless there is some late momentum for McClintock,
Schwarzenegger will outpoll Bustamante and become the next
Governor.
September
16: Well, after two weeks of not much action in the
California race, something big did change yesterday. We
should know in less than a week whether the election will
indeed be postponed until next year. Our gut feeling is
the election will still be held on October 7, but that is
probably not much better than a 50-50 proposition at this
point.
If
the election is indeed put on hold until next March there
is no question it benefits Governor Davis. That is not to
say Davis would be a lock to survive the recall next year,
just that his chances of survival would be significantly
higher. If the election still proceeds this October it's
hard to predict how this turn of events will affect the
outcome. We suspect a lot will depend on how the
decision is reversed. Let's see how this shakes out this
week.
September
15: Little has changed in this race over the last two
weeks; we still feel Schwarzenegger is likely to be the
next governor of California. Ueberroth bowed out as expected,
and if McClintock concedes to Arnold before election day,
Schwarzenegger will win easily. However, right now the odds
seem to favor McClintock going the distance.
McClintock's
decision will truly decide whether this becomes a cakewalk
coronation for Arnold or a late-night nail-biter, a toss-up
between Davis, Bustamante and Schwarzenegger for who will
be the Governor. While McClintock's remaining in the race
certainly keeps Bustamente's chances alive, what it really
does is give Governor Davis a legitimate hope that he might
be able to survive the first question on the ballot.
Though
we don't put a lot of stock in any one poll the trend
in the same poll is valuable in monitoring which way the
electorate is leaning. While we are skeptical of the raw
numbers in the most recent LA Times poll, we feel
the trend from their previous poll is an accurate
reflection of the voters. Schwarzenegger gaining 3%, Bustamante
losing 5%, McClintock gaining 6% and Davis picking up 2%
all jives with where we think the race is heading.
Bustamente's
decline and Davis' small uptick makes complete sense as
Democrats and independents are starting to realize Bustamente
would be a disaster as Governor and Davis ultimately has
a better shot at surviving the recall than Bustamente does
of squeaking out a victory. The odds of a Governor Bustamente
appear very slim to us, as he needs three things to happen
to win. First, McClintock has to stay in until the end,
probably a 50-50 proposition. Second, Davis has to lose
the recall vote, we'd actually give the edge to Davis surviving
if Bustamente is looking strong right before the election.
And third, he obviously has to beat Arnold which we feel
is 50-50 at best, even with McClintock in the race. So,
you put all these together and you see why we don't expect
a Governor Bustamente next year.
McClintock
obviously remains the wild card and the Democrats' fervent
hope is he stays strong until the very end, allowing Bustamente
the chance to squeak through. Though as we mentioned above,
Davis would probably survive in this scenario. However,
even if McClintock stays in we still feel the the most likely
scenario is effectively a race between Schwarzenegger and
Davis, as a general consensus emerges that Bustamente is
a loser. And the prevailing disgust with the current economic
and political situation in the state places Davis at a distinct
disadvantage and is ultimately why it is likely Schwarzenegger
will be the next Governor of California.
August
29: Recent polls have been all over the place on this
race, and they will likely continue to be as pollsters are
going to be more or less guessing at what turnout model is
appropriate for October's election. RCP sees little chance
Bustamante will be able to beat Arnold in a head to head match
up, which is where we think the second part of the recall
election appears to be heading. Simon's withdrawal on Saturday
was a significant boost for Schwarzenegger and it continues
the process of focusing the Republican vote. Expect Ueberroth
to follow suit some time in the next several weeks. This will
leave McClintock and Schwarzenegger as the sole GOP candidates
left in the field, as we feel it is unlikely McClintock will
withdraw.
Bustamante
is going to attract the core Democratic vote, as well as
a sizable vote from the Latino community, which should give
him around 35%. His problem is where does he go for votes
after that? As much as Davis and many on the Democrats'
side want to play up the recall as a partisan power grab
by the GOP, they are wrong to underestimate the genuine
level of disgust and frustration with the management of
the states' affairs in Sacramento by people all across the
political spectrum, not just Republicans. There are going
to be a significant number of moderate Democrats and independents
who would typically be predisposed to vote for the Democratic
candidate, but in this election they may take a pass, especially
if they see Bustamante as merely a continuation of the current
failed policies.
Bustamante's
best chance is to hope McClintock can hang around and continue
to pick up support from the state's conservatives, siphoning
votes away form Arnold. With Schwarzenegger's liberal positions
on most social issues, and the potential for actions and
comments from his colorful past to blow up into a mini-scandal
at any time, this is not an unreasonable possibility. However,
even if McClintock stays strong until the very end we think
Arnold will still be able to pull out a victory, as we suspect
he will attract a significant number of non-typical voters,
much like Jesse Ventura did in Minnesota. If McClintock
fades and the race becomes a clear two-way battle between
Cruz and Arnold, Schwarzenegger will win big and it is even
possible he will get over 50% of the vote.
Of
course all of the above is irrelevant if over 50% of the
voters do not vote to recall Governor Davis. All of the
polls except one (the LA Times) have shown 54%-69% majorities
willing to vote for the ouster of Gray Davis. Our current
RCP average which includes the very pro-Democratic LA
Times poll still shows support for recall running 57.3%-38.7%.
While the evidence continues to remain strong that Davis
will indeed be recalled, we think the Democrats have a better
shot at getting that pro-Davis recall number below 50.0%
than they do of having Cruz out duel Arnold. So expect the
Clintonesque strategy of trying to turn this into a partisan
food fight to continue, especially as we get closer to October
7 and the Democrats realize Davis, and not Bustamante, might
be their only shot to hold on to power.
Bottom
line, barring some nugget from Arnold's past blowing up
into a huge scandal, it is highly likely that Arnold Schwarzenegger
will be the next Governor of California.