Wednesday, September 15 2004
KERRY STATE SLIDE CONTINUES:
There's been a flood of state polls out over the last forty-eight hours, most of it showing a continuing deterioration in John Kerry's position in the Electoral College.

First, the bright spots. A new Gallup poll shows Kerry maintaining a 6-point lead in Michigan and a Minnesota Star-Tribune poll released today shows him with a conspicuously large 9-point lead over Bush.

The big news, however, is in Wisconsin where three new polls by Gallup, Rasmussen, and Strategic Vision show Bush moving ahead of Kerry by 10, 2 and 8 points, respectively. (Note to future candidates: Wisconsin voters do not think highly of people who think the Packers home stadium is called "Lambert Field.").

Because of the shift in Bush's direction, we've moved Wisconsin in our RCP Electoral Count from "toss up" to "leaning Bush." As a result, Bush now leads Kerry 279-228.

We still have three states listed as toss ups: NV, NM, and PA. In Pennsylvania - a state Kerry must win to have any hope - the race remains a dead tie. In Nevada and New Mexico, the most recent polls out of each of those states that aren't Zogby online polls have Bush ahead, though narrowly.

In other potentially ominous news for the Kerry camp, the polling out of New Jersey shows that it's getting awfully close to becoming a "toss up" state as well. And two new polls out of New York today also show significant movement in Bush's direction, though the bottom would have to fall out of the Kerry campaign for him to lose the state.

Ironically for the Democrats, the bad news in the polls for their presidential nominee is juxtaposed with some pretty good news for their hopes in the Senate. In Florida, a new poll shows Betty Castor narrowly leading Mel Martinez and in Oklahoma Brad Carson has inched ahead of Tom Coburn. (Incidentally, we've put together a new page rounding up all the latest polls in the competitive Senate races this year.) There's a lot of race left, of course, but holding Florida and stealing Oklahoma would be huge for the Democrats. - T. Bevan 11:42 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend

 

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