Tuesday, August 31 2004
KERRY IS IN CRISIS:
Roger L. Simon is right, a shake up by the Kerry camp at this point in the race is tantamount to an admission of crisis. Mickey Kaus is right, too: Joe Lockhart ain't gonna come riding in and save the day.

Meanwhile Charlie Cook decided it was time to walk back his rather bold prediction from three weeks ago that this was Kerry's race to lose: "It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change." You don't say? Maybe it shouldn't have been conventional wisdom in the first place.

Honestly, I still don't understand how or why Cook and Sabato decided to go out on a limb like that before the GOP convention. It was like two respected Vegas bookies deciding to change the odds of a game at halftime because one team was up a point or two. It just never made sense.

For the record, I'm not convinced the movement to Bush is all the work of the Swiftees, though they've certain played a part. But even if it is, it's not like the damage they've inflicted on Kerry should come as a big surprise to anyone who follows politics closely.

The Swiftees held a press conference way back in early May - even if it did get close to zero attention from the mainstream press. Here's what I wrote about the Swiftees at the time:

As far as politically damaging attacks go, this (the Swift Boat Veterans) should rank right up there among the most potent ones imaginable. It would certainly be a political disaster of thermonuclear proportions if all of George W. Bush's former commanding officers in the National Guard condemned his fitness to be CIC.

But I suspect this story won't get very much play (except in the blogosphere) and whatever attention it does generate in the mainstream press that might potentially influence swing voters in battleground states will be seriously diluted by Kerry's massive $25 million ad buy that began yesterday touting his service in Vietnam.

In other words, the Veterans' press conference and letter may not have much of a short-term impact on Kerry's numbers.

But it will be a different story after Labor Day when the Bush camp puts clips from the letter and footage from the press conference into an ad of their own and spends enough money in those same battleground states to make it hurt.

How will Kerry be able to effectively rebut this letter when the time comes? Very good question.

As it turns out, the answer to the question is "not effectively at all," which is why the Kerry campaign seems to be teetering on the verge of a meltdown. - T. Bevan 6:00 pm Link | Email | Send to a Friend

Last Week's Blog

 

© 2000-2004 RealClearPolitics.com   All Rights Reserved

RCP Polling Information
3 Way Race: Bush-Kerry-Nader
Head-to-Head Race: Bush-Kerry
Bush Job Approval
State Polls: Battleground | Other

RCP Blogroll
Andrew Sullivan Matt Rosenberg
Armavirumque Milt Rosenberg
Atrios Morning Grind
Belmont Club No Left Turns
Best of the Web The Note
Bill Hobbs Oxblog
Captain Ed Pejmanesque
The Corner Polipundit
Daily KOS Political Animal
Dan Drezner Political Wire
Donald Luskin PowerLine
Donald Sensing Rich Galen
Drudge Robert Tagorda
Election Projection Roger L. Simon
First Read Ryan Lizza
Hit and Run Scrappleface
Hugh Hewitt SD Politics
Instapundit TPM
James Lileks Tapped
John Ellis TNR
Kausfiles Tim Blair
Kerry Spot Virginia Postrel
Kevin McCullough Volokh
Matthew Yglesias Wonkette

Archives - 2004
8/23-27 | 8/16-22 | 8/9-15 | 8/2-8 | 7/26-8/1 | 7/19-7/25 | 7/12-18 | 7/5-11 | 6/28-7/4 | 6/21-6/27 | 6/14-20 | 6/7-13 | 5/31-6/6 | 5/24-30 | 5/17-23 | 5/10-16 | 5/3-5/9 | 4/26-5/2 | 4/19-25 | 4/12-18 | 4/5-11 | 3/29-4/4 | 3/22-28 | 3/15-21 | 3/8-14 | 3/1-7 | 2/23-27 | 2/16-22 | 2/9-15 | 2/2-2/8 | 1/26-2/1 | 1/19-25 | 1/12-18 | 1/5-11 | 12/29/03-1/4/04

Archives - 2003
12/22-28 | 12/15-21 | 12/8-14 | 12/1-7 | 11/24-11/30 | 11/17-11/23 | 11/10-11/16 | 11/3-11/9 | 10/27-11/2 | 10/20-26 | 10/13-19 | 10/6-10/12 | 9/29-10/5 | 9/22-28 | 9/15-9/21 | 9/8-9/14 | 9/1-9/7 | 8/25-8/31 | 8/17-8/24 | 8/11-8/16 | 8/4-8/10 | 7/28-8/3 | 7/21-7/27 | 7/14-7/20 | 7/7-7/13 | 6/30-7/6 | 6/23-6/29 | 6/16-6/22 | 6/9-6/15 | 6/2-6/8 | 5/26-6/1 | 5/19-5/25 | 5/12-5/18 | 5/5-5/11 | 4/28-5/4 | 4/21-4/27 | 4/14-4/20 | 4/7-4/13 | 3/31-4/6 | 3/24 - 3/30 | 3/10 - 3/17 | 3/3-3/9 | 2/24-3/2 | 2/17-2/23 |
2/10-2/16 | 2/3- 2/9 | 1/27 - 2/2 | 1/20 -1/26 | 1/13-1/19 | 1/6-1/12 | 12/31/02-1/5/03

Archives - 2002
12/23-12/29 | 12/16-12/22 | 12/9-12/15 | 12/2-12/8 | 11/25-12/1 | 11/18-11/24 | 11/11-11/17 | 11/4-11/10 | 10/28-11/3 | 10/21-10/27 | 10/14 -10/20 | 10/7-10/13 | 9/30-10/6 | 9/23 -9/29 | 9/16-9/22