Tuesday,
July 6 2004
EDWARDS: He's been the favorite for weeks
so this should come as no surprise, though to be honest
I didn't think Kerry would tap Edwards. What's interesting
about this pick is what it tells you about how the Kerry
camp views the state of the race. I suspect that despite
all of their public declarations about how they love their
current position, there was a realization behind the scenes
that the status quo was leading to a Bush reelection.
Edwards
is tacit acknowledgment that they needed to do something
to give the campaign an adrenaline shot. But while this
pick may play well in the next three weeks I don't know
how well it is going to work after Labor Day when the real
contest begins.
You
may see polls in the next few weeks showing Kerry competitive
or even ahead in North Carolina, forget about 'em, the Kerry-Edwards
ticket will carry no southern states. Edwards may be enough
to solidify a Bowles victory in the NC Senate race and help
on the margin in a couple of the other open Senate seats
in the South, but he is not going to turn Georgia, North
Carolina or Florida into Kerry wins.
The
Edwards pick is a poll-driven mistake. At the end of the
day they probably kept coming back to all of their internal
polls showing Edwards giving them a bigger bump than all
of the other possibilities. Don't get me wrong, Edwards
is not a disastrous choice. The press is going to love it,
and there is no question he will bring a youthful vibrancy
and vigor to the Kerry campaign.
Chris
Matthews was suggesting a couple of weeks ago that Edwards
will clean Cheney's clock in the VP debate with his trial
lawyer expertise. Well, we'll see. Everyone keeps forgetting
about that little event three years ago in September, and
I suspect Cheney's supreme competency and seriousness will
provide a stark contrast to the boyish charm of Senator
Edwards.
In
many ways the Edwards pick is the Kerry campaign's attempt
to recreate the magic of the Clinton-Gore ticket in 1992.
The Democrats' problem is we live in a very different world
today from the 1990's, when the collapse of the Soviet Union
had relegated national security to the backseat.
This
is a very serious election, and the Bush-Cheney campaign
will make that abundantly clear. Kerry would have been better
off with the safe, solid choice of Dick Gephardt who at
least would have helped potentially win Missouri.
Edwards
will give Kerry the bump in the polls they were looking
for, but on election day Erskine Bowles is the real winner
from this pick, not John Kerry. J. McIntyre
8:23 am Link
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