If the Democrats’ strategy for winning the governor’s race in Virginia is to convince people that Ralph Northam can lose, they are doing a really good job. I am worried they are right. My inbox has been flooded with increasingly hysterical messages warning that the race is tight — messages that were meant as a hedge against complacency when it wasn’t. This race was supposed to be a relatively easy win for Northam. Remember that Virginia is an increasingly blue state; Northam is cut from the same moderate Democratic cloth that Virginians have favored recently; lobbyist Ed Gillespie faced a fractured Republican Party to mend and the plunging fortunes of President Trump to defend. Let’s try to understand why Gillespie now seems to be closing the gap, down to five points in the latest Washington Post-Schar School poll.