Flake Retirement Helps the GOP in Ariz. Senate Race

Flake Retirement Helps the GOP in Ariz. Senate Race

Sen. Jeff Flake’s decision to retire rather than seek a second term suggests a number of interesting possibilities for the future of the Republican Party in Arizona.  Perhaps, as he suggests, this too shall pass.  Or, as Ben Domenech suggests, perhaps this authenticates Republicans as the party of Trump. This discussion is important, especially in its long-term implications.  But as we draw closer to Election Day, I concern myself with the more limited questions of how events affect parties’ short-term electoral ambitions.  This retirement is one of the rare instances where an incumbent’s departure improves a party’s chances of holding a seat.  To understand this, consider four factors

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