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Obama Is Winning - and Has Been All Year

By Steve Kornacki, Salon - September 10, 2012

The final evidence isn't in yet, but there are strong indicators that Barack Obama received a real boost from the Democratic convention - bigger than the paltry bump Mitt Romney got out of his party's gathering and potentially big enough to push Obama's national lead to heights not seen since Romney emerged from the GOP primaries back in the spring.

Gallup's daily trendline, which remained flat during and immediately after the Republican convention, has spiked in Obama's favor over the last few days; as of Sunday afternoon, his lead was five points. He's also pulled a few points ahead in Rasmussen's daily poll, which has tended to be more Romney-friendly than other surveys, grabbed a four-point lead in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and seen his job approval rating crack the 50 percent mark. A PPP poll released Sunday night also showed Obama hitting 50 percent in Ohio. Overall, the Real Clear Politics average, which had shown a dead even race as the Democratic convention opened, has Obama's advantage climbing to 1.8 points - and possibly still growing.

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