At least that's what the NY Times' Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny are reporting tonight:

Senator Barack Obama has all but settled on his choice for a running mate and set an elaborate rollout plan for his decision, beginning with an early morning alert to supporters, perhaps as soon as Wednesday morning, aides said.

Mr. Obama's deliberations remain remarkably closely held. Aides said perhaps a half-dozen advisers were involved in the final discussions in an effort to enforce a command that Mr. Obama issued to staff members: that his decision not leak out until supporters are notified.

Well, good luck on that. The Obama campaign is known for its discipline, however.

By all indications, Mr. Obama is likely to choose someone relatively safe and avoid taking a chance with a game-changing selection. A similar strategic choice now faces Mr. Obama's Republican rival, Senator John McCain of Arizona, who has been under pressure from some Republicans to make a more daring choice.

Mr. Obama's advisers said he all but reached his decision while on vacation in Hawaii. They said it was the end of what proved to be an unexpectedly intense process, condensed because he did not want to start actively vetting potential running mates before Mrs. Clinton quit the race in June.

What was happening while Obama was in Hawaii? Russia was invading Georgia. Just something to keep in mind as you play your own guessing game here. Perhaps the Georgian crisis more than anything highlighted his need for a foreign-policy running mate.Or maybe it had no effect whatsoever. We'll know shortly.