News & Election Videos

RealClearPolitics VP Watch

RCP Staff

« Pawlenty Talks to Brody File | VP Watch Home Page | Conventional Wisdom »

Heilemann's Conundrum

John Heilemann's New York Magazine essay on Obama's "VP Conundrum" defines the conundrum as:

Where exactly does one find a running mate untainted by Old Politics, an outsider who represents a clean break with the past and embodies transformative potential, but who also happens to be (to borrow a phrase) ready from day one to be commander-in-chief?

Heilemann looks at three potential choices -- Kathleen Sebelius, Joe Biden and Chuck Hagel -- as representative of how they might solve the conundrum. However, Heilemann's point is that the conundrum is unsolvable, insofar as finding the candidate who fulfills the definition. The best choice? Why, Hillary Clinton of course.

With apologies to Heilemann, let's apply Heilemann's conundrum to John McCain. In that case, we might define the conundrum as:

Where exactly does one find a youthful running mate with executive, as well as economic, experience, a conservative who can appeal to working-class as well as Evangelical voters, but who (to borrow a phrase) is seen as an "agent of change"?

Unfortunately for McCain, there is no Hillary Clinton on the Right who fits the bill. But let's look at three representative choices:

1. Bobby Jindal - The Louisiana governor is certainly youthful, has executive experience, and is already something of a cult hero with conservatives. He won as a Republican in Louisiana, which speaks to his appeal among lower-income voters, and, as a devoted Catholic, is solidly pro-life. His Indian ancestry also fits the (Democratic) definition of an agent of change. But Jindal's youthfullness is also his Achilles' heal: He's too young, half of McCain's age. Despite the fact that he has more executive experience than Obama, he would be a welcome target for Democrats' intent of showing that Obama's relative inexperience isn't a problem: Why, just look at who McCain wants a heartbeat away from the presidency.

2. Sarah Palin - The young Alaskan governor is hugely popular in her state and her particular strengths are finding resonance on the Right. While still relatively unknown to the larger conservative movement, she already has Bill Kristol's seal of approval. If Obama doesn't choose Hillary, putting Palin on the ticket would be a major coup for McCain with female voters. Palin is also solidly pro-life, and is acquiring a tough anti-corruption record in Alaska, fitting well into McCain's larger campaign theme. The problem of course is that Palin is relatively inexperienced and unvetted. While Jindal has gone through the ringer in the circle of Hell known as Louisiana politics, Palin is mostly a question mark. Palin also has no national-security experience and relatively little economic experience.

3. Rob Portman - Another cult hero among conservatives, Rob Portman fills the economic quotient to a tee. Although connected to the Bush administration through his time as Director of the White House's Office of Management and Budget, Portman has plenty of examples to point to on where he disagreed with the president, mostly on spending restraints. As a former congressman from Ohio, Portman could help McCain win this important battleground state. Portman's negatives, however, are clear: He's a white male. Even if Obama ends up choosing his own white male, the McCain folks will be hard-pressed to point to where the "change" is on their side. Add to this the fact that Portman is a Beltway favorite, little known outside Washington circles. Disregard those two factors and Portman looks great.

We could add as a No. 4 Joe Lieberman. But Lieberman's attraction outside the "unity" thing is pretty bare. He gets respect from conservatives for his resolute stance on the war on terror, but otherwise he's an unapologetic liberal. Lieberman might find a place in a McCain administration (change "might" to "almost certainly"), but it's hard to see where exactly he helps solve McCain's conundrum.