Heller's High Water
In January 2007, just thirteen Republicans took the oath of office as freshmen. That was the smallest freshman class since the House expanded to 435 seats in the early twentieth century. Having survived that year, the reasoning went, none of those Republicans would face strong challenges this time around.
But as Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann found out, one misspoken phrase can doom a candidacy. Michigan Rep. Tim Walberg and Idaho Rep. Bill Sali are underdogs in their own races for re-election, conservatives running in districts just slightly to their left. And Tennessee Rep. David Davis has already lost his seat, though thanks to a primary challenge rather than a Democrat beating him.
Could Nevada Rep. Dean Heller be in jeopardy as well? Thanks to the rapidly expanding Democratic voter registration rolls, Nevada Democrats think so. Heller will once again face former state Board of Regents member Jill Derby, who he beat by five points two years ago, and both parties make strong cases for their candidate.
Republicans say Heller is in much better position now than he was after the 2006 primary, from which he emerged scarred and penniless. Now, with money in the bank and representing the only district in Nevada John McCain is likely to win, Heller should be safe.
Democrats, though, point to Washoe County, where new residents in and around Reno have been registering Democratic in record numbers. Democrats say they averaged more than a 500-voter net gain each week between January, when the state held presidential caucuses, and the national convention in late August. Add that to the excitement Barack Obama has generated in a state in which he appears to be pulling away and he could take Derby with him (Obama leads McCain in Washoe County by a 50%-40% margin, according to the latest Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll).
Perhaps most telling in favor of Heller's chances, the DCCC has not invested in Derby's candidacy, despite dumping nearly $2.4 million into the neighboring Third District. But that doesn't mean they aren't trying everything else: A Democratic Party activist in Nevada recently filed a complaint with the FEC alleging Heller's significant $350,000 debt is a violation of standard business practices.
Some of the folks Heller owes money to know a thing or two about outstanding bills to clients: One of Heller's largest obligations is to November Inc., the Nevada GOP consulting firm operated by Mike Slanker, who now directs the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Heller owes Slanker et al about $116,000, according to his latest FEC filing.