NH Sen Tightening?
After months of leading by double digits, former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen has seen her lead over Republican Senator John Sununu shrink dramatically in at least one respected survey, due in most part to a larger number of respondents self-identifying as Republicans. Could it be that John McCain's popularity in the Granite State is already helping his endangered Senate colleague?
The new poll shows good news for one of the state's two freshman Democrats, as Rep. Paul Hodes looks like he's pulling away from both his potential Republican challengers. For Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, though, chances at re-election look decidedly more tenuous in the state's more conservative First District. Hodes, whose district encompasses Nashua in the south and the state's northern and western regions, looks a lot safer than Shea-Porter, who represents Manchester and the Seacoast region.
The poll, taken by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, tested 475 likely general election voters between 7/11-20 for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Of those, 235 lived in Shea-Porter's First District, for a margin of error of +/- 6.4%, and 240 lived in Hodes' Second District, for a margin of error of +/- 6.3%. In the Senate race, Sununu and Shaheen were tested, while Shea-Porter was matched against ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley and former state Cabinet secretary John Stephen. Hodes was tested against State Senator Bob Clegg and radio host Jennifer Horn.
General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / CD1 / CD2)
Shaheen..........46 / 84 / 11 / 42 / 56 / 35 / 45 / 48 (-6 from last, 4/08)
Sununu............42 / 9 / 82 / 26 / 53 / 32 / 47 / 37 (+2)
Bradley............46 / 8 / 84 / 40 / 56 / 36 (+1)
Shea-Porter.....40 / 80 / 6 / 26 / 34 / 46 (+1)
Shea-Porter.....42 / 79 / 10 / 25 / 36 / 48 (-1)
Stephen...........36 / 3 / 71 / 30 / 48 / 24 (+1)
Hodes..............43 / 69 / 15 / 40 / 37 / 47 (-9)
Horn.................23 / 3 / 48 / 11 / 29 / 19 (-2)
Hodes..............44 / 75 / 13 / 36 / 34 / 52 (-7)
Clegg...............25 / 4 / 50 / 17 / 32 / 19 (+1)
Democrats are down across the board, explains Survey Center director Andrew Smith, because "I've been telling the interviewers not to push the undecideds too much." Since the last UNH survey, in April, the number of undecided voters has increased, while the overall party identification breakdown hasn't changed much. This sample includes 41% Republican respondents, 40% Democratic respondents and 19% independents or other parties.