If a Democratic poll is accurate, freshman Rep. Chris Carney is cruising toward a second term this November. An easy win for Carney would be a surprise, considering John McCain is expected to easily win the northeast Pennsylvania district by a wide margin.

The poll, taken for Carney's campaign by Momentum Analysis, surveyed 400 likely voters between 8/19-21 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Carney and businessman Chris Hackett were tested.

General Election Matchup
Carney.........54
Hackett........27

Hackett emerged from a brutal primary against another businessman, Dan Meuser, during which the Club for Growth ran ads on Hackett's behalf. The negative impression some voters got from that bitter battle could be holding Hackett's vote count down.

But Carney has to be concerned about the effect the top of the ticket will have on voters in his district. President Bush won the seat by twenty points in 2004, and Hillary Clinton outpaced Obama by a three-to-one margin in the state's April primary.

Carney has proven an able fundraiser and has compiled one of the most conservative records among House Democrats. But the district leans so dramatically to the right that it's hard to believe the race won't tighten over time. The next poll to come from northeast Pennsylvania will likely show a closer race.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 3:40 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

Illinois Congressional candidate Dan Seals is using the historic moment of Barack Obama’s convention speech tonight to promote his own candidacy against Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.).

In the ad, Seals ties his candidacy with Obama’s, attempting to capitalize on Obama's home state popularity. Seals will be airing the ad on Chicago-area television during the convention tonight just before Obama accepts the Democratic nomination.

“I'm Dan Seals. Our family is excited to share with you tonight's historic moment of change. It's why I'm running for Congress,” Seals says in the ad, sitting next to his wife and two daughters.

“Mark Kirk accuses me of supporting the Obama agenda. Well, you bet I do.”

The ad  is being aired on expensive Chicago broadcast television in addition to the cable news networks.

Seals is one of the leading Democratic recruits after he came within six points of defeating Kirk in 2006. The suburban Chicago district is only one of only eight GOP-held districts that John Kerry carried in his 2004 presidential campaign.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 2:32 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

Ohio Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy has a very environmentally-friendly message in her latest campaign ad, but she makes sure to mention that she supports “increased drilling.”

Kilroy’s second ad focuses on energy and contains all the standard Democratic tropes on energy: attacking “Big Oil” companies, railing against speculators and supporting investments in renewable energy.

Kilroy’s mention of drilling, though, is what’s raising eyebrows.  Kilroy made no mention of supporting expanded drilling in her energy plan released in June. 

Many Democratic candidates, like Kilroy, are touting their "balanced approach" -- supporting drilling as part of a comprehensive energy plan that places punitive measures on big oil companies and cracks down on speculators.

Kilroy is running against GOP state senator Steve Stivers in a closely-watched race to succeed the retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio).

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 11:50 AM | Email | Print | Permalink

Just 152 votes separate Rep. Don Young and his GOP primary opponent, lieutenant governor Sean Parnell — and there are thousands more uncounted ballots left.

With all but one precinct counted, Young has 42,539 votes to Parnell’s 42,387. Another anti-Young candidate, state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux won 8,628 votes — clearly playing the role of spoiler, if Young indeed hangs on.

This is an ideal situation for House Democrats, as Young looks like he’s in decent position to hold onto the seat despite his vulnerabilities. And this primary may not get resolved for weeks, as Alaska electoral officials count absentee ballots and the loser will probably ask for a recount.

The Democratic nominee, former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz will now have a head start in both getting his message out and fundraising. But it will be hard for him to fully begin the campaign without knowing his opponent. If Young wins, Berkowitz's campaign will focus on Young's ethical problems  He would have to adopt a different campaign strategy against Parnell, a reform-minded Republican without Young's ethical baggage. 

Alaska election officials estimated there are about 5,000 to 7,000 absentee ballots remaining, and both campaigns will probably be aggressive in contesting each ballot’s validity.

Can you say hanging chads?

Another developing storyline is that Parnell, as lieutenant governor, is the lead official overseeing the state’s election division.

From the Anchorage Daily News:

One wrinkle in this tight race is that Parnell, as lieutenant governor, is the state official in charge of overseeing the Division of Elections. Parnell recused himself from oversight of the primary when he became a candidate and said he has no role in the ballot count.

Mike Anderson, Young's chief of staff who is working on his campaign, said it is a unique situation to have Young's opponent have elections authority.

"We can't go to the lieutenant governor and ask him for advice," he said.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 6:34 AM | Email | Print | Permalink

If there was any question about Sen. John Sununu’s (R-N.H.) energy level, his first campaign ad of the election seeks to put that to rest.

The ad reintroduces Sununu to New Hampshire voters, invoking every adjective to portraying him as youthful and vigorous.

“He’s younger, faster, quicker, inexhaustible, tireless, energetic — a leader. Independent and principled, great dad, big-hearted, funny and kind,” the ad says. “He’s the youngest member of the Senate but TIME said that hasn’t limited his reach. New Hampshire’s in his blood.”

The biographical ad avoids mention of any policy differences between himself and his Democratic opponent, former governor Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu is considered to be the most vulnerable incumbent Republican senator, and polls have shown him trailing Shaheen throughout the year.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 6:51 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

If Rep. Vern Buchanan, a freshman Florida Republican, survived the 2006 election cycle, he might be able to survive anything. Buchanan, who won a narrow victory in 2006 over Democrat Christine Jennings, is well ahead in a rematch, a new Republican poll shows.

The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the National Republican Congressional Committee, surveyed 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Buchanan and Jennings were tested, along with independent candidates Jan Schneider and Dan Baldauf.

General Election Matchup
Buchanan.......48 (+4 from last, 7/08)
Jennings.......30 (no change)
Schneider.......6
Baldauf.........1

Buchanan is seen favorably by 47% of district residents, while 27% view him unfavorably. Jennings, meanwhile, has considerably lower name recognition, with 36% seeing her favorably and 29% seeing her unfavorably.

The Republican has an ambitious paid media plan and a significant fundraising advantage over Jennings.

National Democrats have reserved their own airtime to augment Jennings', and the party is hammering Buchanan over lawsuits filed by former employees of companies he owns. Those employees say they were coerced into supporting his campaign.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 4:50 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

DENVER — Oregon Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has come under fire from a conservative group for mixing up the country of Georgia with the Peach State in response to a reporter’s question about the Russian-Georgian conflict earlier this month.

Freedom’s Watch is sending out robo-calls throughout Oregon and launching a Web ad reminding voters of Merkley’s confusion when asked his thoughts about “what was going on in Georgia” the day after the invasion began.

“When asked about the conflict State Representative Jeff Merkley, a self-described national security analyst, thought he was being asked about Jimmy Carter’s home state,” the robo-call says. “That’s right, this self-proclaimed national security analyst didn’t have a clue what had happened.”

At a DSCC program spotlighting top Senate candidates, I gave Merkley a second chance to answer the question, and he was better prepared this time:

“We should absolutely stand very strong with the Georgian people. We do not want an America in which we are looking at Russian continuously expanding its border. There are many, many states that have great concerns and are having intense dialogues with the G8 and have intense dialogues with the NATO nations. We have to convey our message at the highest levels and this is the sort of diplomacy we should have been doing prior to Russia moving into Georgia but the administration was distracted by Iraq.

We need to recognize, too, is what Georgia shows us is that we absolutely have to have a different energy policy in this country. I’m calling for an end to our dependence to foreign oil.

Merkley, the Oregon House Speaker, is running against Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. Smith hasn’t yet brought up Merkley’s comments in any paid advertising, instead attacking him for spending millions to refurnish the state House.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 4:20 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

With barbs flying between Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer, both candidates have seen their negative ratings almost double, according to a new poll conducted for Schaffer. Unlike most independent surveys, Udall has only a small lead.

The poll, conducted for Schaffer's campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee by Hill Research Consultants, surveyed 553 likely voters between 8/23-24 for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Udall, Schaffer and three third-party candidates were tested.

General Election Matchup
Udall..........41 (-4 from last, 4/08)
Schaffer.......38 (no change)
Other...........9

Obama..........43
McCain.........40

Each candidate had unfavorable ratings in the mid-teens in the first poll conducted for Schaffer, in late March and early April. Now, Udall is seen negatively by 33% of Colorado voters, up from 15%, while Schaffer is viewed negatively by 34%, up from 18%. Both candidates have run advertisements slamming their opponent, and outside groups have also gotten involved with ads of their own.

Schaffer's campaign has constantly trumpeted the notion that Udall is, in their words, a "Boulder liberal," and 48% of respondents think the Democrat is, in fact, more liberal than they are. 38% said Schaffer is more conservative than they are. If Schaffer can perpetuate the association of Udall with liberal, the Republican could make Colorado a close race.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 4:00 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

DENVER, Colorado -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told The Scorecard today that his party leads in five Republican-held competitive Senate races. The Nevada Democrat would not speculate on how many seats the party will ultimately gain in November, but he guaranteed at least some growth for his caucus.

"If the election were held today, we would win in New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Alaska," Reid said. "We're competitive in six more [races], so we're going to pick up some seats. I don't know how many."

Reid, who will face voters in 2010, said he isn't concerned about his own political position just yet, even as a poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal showed a majority of Nevadans view his job performance negatively. The survey, conducted by Washington-based Mason-Dixon two weeks ago, showed 43% said Reid is doing an excellent or good job, while 56% say he's doing a fair or poor job.

"My numbers are okay. I wish they were better," Reid said. "Frankly, they're about what they've always been."

"I'm just going to continue doing my job. I'm not much of a pollster or polling guy," he said.

When Reid faces re-election in two years, he voiced optimism that three Democratic women will be running for re-election alongside him. Rep. Shelley Berkley occupies a safe Democratic seat in Las Vegas, while State Senator Dina Titus faces off against Republican Rep. Jon Porter and former state Democratic Party chair Jill Derby is running against Rep. Dean Heller for the second consecutive election cycle.

"It's very likely this year we will send three Democratic women to Congress from Nevada," he said. "Jill Derby's going to win, Shelley Berkley's already there, and it appears very clear that Dina Titus is going to win in the Second Congressional District."

Many Nevada political observers say Reid is especially interested in the race between Porter and Titus, as he views the three-term Republican as perhaps his strongest potential challenger for the Senate seat.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 3:30 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

Could Terry McAuliffe be thinking about a political career of his own?

The big-time Clinton fundraiser raised eyebrows this morning when he told the Washington Post that he was considering running for governor of Virginia in 2009.

From the Washington Post:

Rumors that McAuliffe is interested in being governor of Virginia have been percolating around the convention all week. In an interview with reporters after his speech, McAuliffe did little to dampen speculation that he was considering entering next year's race for the Democratic nomination.

"I'm focused on this election, I am going full time for Senator Obama," said McAuliffe, who lives in McLean.
"But I never rule anything out. ...Everyday is a new opportunity. I would like to be Pope if I could."

During his speech to the delegation, McAuliffe noted he diverted $5 million when he was national party chairman to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine 's (D) 2005 race for governor. The infusion of party money is widely believed to have helped Kaine defeat former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore (R).

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 3:23 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

While you were sleeping, one of the most closely watched GOP primaries remains way too close to call.

With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) and Alaska’s lieutenant governor Sean Parnell are locked in a nail-biter, with Young leading by 145 votes, 42,461 to 42,316. A third candidate, state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, is well behind in third place.

Young, who has served in Congress for 35 years, is facing one of his toughest battles of his political career.

Young is under investigation by the Justice Department over his ties to oil services giant Veco Corp. and has spent much of his campaign funds on legal fees. The grizzled veteran has also been opposed by the anti-tax, fiscally conservative Club for Growth over his vigorous support of federal earmarking.

If Young holds onto his razor-thin lead, he will be facing former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, a leading Democratic recruit.

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen told Politico yesterday that Democrats would prefer to run against Young in a general election, but said they are preparing to contest the seat no matter who wins.

“We are going to compete in that district no matter what. But the lessons from the last election were that if you’ve got a incumbent being investigated by the FBI who has the ethical problems that Don Young’s got, that presents a big opportunity,” said Van Hollen.

“Clearly if Don Young is the candidate, the campaign will take a different kind of focus on all the problems he’s had.”

The DCCC has been involved in the Republican primary, sending out mailers accusing Parnell of supporting tax increases.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 8:22 AM | Email | Print | Permalink

From the Associated Press:

Alaska Republicans gave U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens, currently facing a federal indictment, a primary victory on Tuesday.

It sets up a November election race with possibly the toughest opponent Stevens has ever faced in his 40 years in public office, squaring off against popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.

Stevens won his primary with 63 percent of the vote. Begich easily won his Democratic primary over two minor challengers with 91 percent of the vote.

A loud crowd of supporters gathered at Stevens' headquarters, and set off a loud cheer when the first results were announced. When they were posted, Stevens walked closer to the big-screen television, adjusted his glasses and said, "Looks good to me," before flashing a huge grin.

Begich, for his part, and a throng of his sign-carrying supporters walked to the city's convention center. "It's clear to me people want new ideas," Begich said.

Stevens faces trial next month on seven felony charges, and political analysts say these primary results could set the tone for the November vote.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 2:37 AM | Email | Print | Permalink

Tom Rooney, the grandson of Pittsburgh Steelers owner Art Rooney, narrowly prevailed in a hotly-contested Republican primary for the right to challenge freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.).

With all precincts reporting, Rooney defeated his leading rival, state Rep. Gayle Harrell by a two-point margin, 37 to 35 percent. Palm Beach Gardens city councilman Hal Valeche, who spent much of his own fortune to contest the seat, finished in third with 28 percent.

Rooney benefited from a late endorsement from Florida's popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist.

Republicans believe Mahoney is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Representing a GOP-leaning district, he won election in 2006 in light of the scandal surrounding former Rep. Mark Foley.

But Rooney starts the general election with a huge financial disadvantage. Rooney is nearly broke from the primary, while Mahoney has over $1 million in his campaign account.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 11:30 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

Rep. Ric Keller (R-Fla.) narrowly eked out a primary victory against attorney Todd Long in a closer-than-expected race that could foreshadow some trouble for the incumbent in November.

Keller defeated Long, 53 to 47 percent, with 97 percent of precincts reporting. The AP has called the race for Keller.

The Republican primary had been highly negative, particularly after Keller sent out a direct mail piece slamming Long for a past drunk-driving arrest and a recent incident of public intoxication. Long also faced significant financial hurdles, being outraised and outspent by the incumbent.

Long, meanwhile, attacked Keller for splitting with the Republicans on the Iraq war, over large budget deficits and for breaking a term limits pledge the congressman made in 2000.

Keller’s narrow margin of victory — even with the damning attacks — must be concerning for Republicans, and may propel this race on the national radar screen.

The fast-growing district, centered in Orlando, has traditionally supported Republican candidates but has grown more independent as the population has boomed over the past decade.

Keller will be facing businessman Alan Grayson, who scored a surprising victory in the Democratic primary. Grayson handily defeated the Democrats’ 2006 nominee, Charlie Stuart, and attorney Mike Smith with 48 percent of the vote.

Grayson primarily self-financed his campaign, and if he continues to do so, he may be able to close the fundraising gap with Keller.

Posted by Josh Kraushaar at 8:53 PM | Email | Print | Permalink

Two Michigan Republicans facing tough races lead their Democratic challengers according to a new poll, but in both cases, the incumbents are well under the crucial 50% mark, giving national GOP strategists another reason to worry.

The poll, conducted by Michigan-based EPIC-MRA for the Detroit News and four television stations, surveyed 400 likely voters in both the Seventh and Ninth Districts for margins of error of +/- 4.9%. The Seventh District poll, which tested Rep. Tim Walberg and State Senator Mark Schauer, was conducted 8/20-22. The Ninth District poll, which pitted Rep. Joe Knollenberg against former State Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters, independent candidate Jack Kevorkian (Yes, that Jack Kevorkian) and Libertarian Adam Goodman.

General Election Matchups
Walberg...........43
Schauer...........40

Knollenberg.......43
Peters............36
Goodman............5
Kevorkian..........4

Both incumbent Republicans have bad job approval ratings. Just 35% say they have a positive impression of Knollenberg's job performance, while 47% say they think of his performance in a negative light. Walberg gets a similarly anemic 32% positive to 43% negative rating.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1.5 million in television airtime aimed at Walberg and $1.1 million targeting Knollenberg. If they drive down both incumbents' favorable numbers any further, Republicans may find themselves on the wrong end of the next poll.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 6:30 PM | Email | Print | Permalink