Scott Rasmussen on New Battleground Polling

HANNITY: And this is a FOX News Alert. New FOX News/Rasmussen Polls just released today shows that Barack Obama has maintained a steady lead in four of the five swing states that George Bush won back in 2004.

In Florida, Obama has a five-point advantage. Missouri, Obama maintains his three-point edge, beating McCain, 50 to 47. The state of Ohio, McCain lost his lead now trails Obama by two. North Carolina remains the only battleground state that is closely contested with the candidates tied at 48.

And finally, in Virginia, Obama has a three-point advantage up from one point from last week.

Now joining us now is the president of Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen.

Scott, welcome back to the show. Thanks for being back with us. All right.

SCOTT RASMUSSEN, RASMUSSEN REPORTS: Great to be here, Sean.

HANNITY: Nobody denies the economy has hurt -- this whole battle over the economy has hurt the McCain campaign. He's lost momentum.

RASMUSSEN: Absolutely. Right.

HANNITY: With -- now we see the bill has been passed. Now we see that a major rebound, one of the biggest days we've had on Wall Street today. If this continues -- can this now alter this race?

RASMUSSEN: Well, can it? Absolutely. I mean, what we're seeing here is a race that has shifted in three weeks towards Barack Obama and there is no denying it. Nationally and in the swing state polls, Barack Obama has the lead. If the election were held today he would win.

Anything that shakes up the status quo gives John McCain a chance. I don't expect the market to go up 900 points a day too many times. But if the market begins to rebound and things take on a different tone it could be a different race.

HANNITY: Yes. You know I went back and I did a little study in history. And tell me what you think of this, Scott, because I respect your opinion a lot here.

For example, Bill Clinton, when he was running in 1992, had a 14-point average over George Herbert Walker Bush. He even, at one point, a 19-point advantage in October. He won by six.

If we look at in mid October Jimmy Carter was winning against Gerald Ford 13 points. He won by two. If you look at, for example, 2000 it showed that George W. Bush in October was losing to Al Gore 51 to 40 percent.

So -- can I get any -- can I read anything into that especially in light of now the bleeding on the economy has stopped and perhaps, I think, John McCain was falsely labeled. He was the one that was, you know, calling out to everybody that, you know, fix Fannie and Freddie but -- and all this would happened.

But can I read anything into that past?

RASMUSSEN: Well, first, Sean, you know, different polls have different approaches. Our numbers are pretty stable. And in fact, for the last two and a half weeks, we've had a very consistent lead for Barack Obama with him in the low 50's and John McCain in the mid 40's.

All those polls you just talked about, though, suggest one bit of good news for Republicans in polling today, and that's the election is not for three weeks. Things can change.

HANNITY: Right.

RASMUSSEN: The biggest thing to watch for is that three weeks ago the number of people who said national security was the most important issue was nine points higher than it is today. The number who said economy was important is nine points higher now than it was.

HANNITY: All right, but if.

RASMUSSEN: . before this meltdown began.

HANNITY: All right. Assuming then -- for example I even noticed that there was a closing of the gap in your poll. Gallup closed by five points. The Zogby has this -- John Zogby has this at four-point race.

For example -- and then when you look at polls like ABC/"Washington Post," or "Newsweek," when you get to the internals, they're interviewing 10 to 25 percent more Democrats. So you have to discount them because they don't.

RASMUSSEN: Well.

HANNITY: You can't interview 25 percent more Democrats and expect, you know, anything other than the result that they're coming up with, right?

RASMUSSEN: Right. Well, Sean, here's the issue, though, and it's really pretty basic. If the campaign continues the same dialogue that we've had for the last few weeks and there is no curve balls and no surprises, Barack Obama wins.

But if something changes, and by the way in this election season, it's been pretty crazy. There is a chance that something will come up and shift. If that happens, McCain has a chance but he's clearly the underdog but there is still three weeks to go. And with a five or six-point lead in the polls, that's not time to begin celebrating too early for Obama.

COLMES: Scott, are all these numbers.

RASMUSSEN: Yes.

COLMES: The numbers we have now, they also indicate that McCain beating this Bill Ayers drum and talking about how bad Barack Obama is and how dangerous Barack Obama is has not helped him?

RASMUSSEN: You know the biggest thing in the polls that really addresses that, Alan, is that in the last several weeks the battleground state polls we've been doing had been showing that people are getting more and more comfortable with Barack Obama as president.

So, again, I would say, if there's nothing new that comes out on those issues, they're going to say it doesn't help.

COLMES: Something else you had which plurality of voters, 47 percent.

RASMUSSEN: Right.

COLMES: . say Barack Obama's plan to raise taxes on those who earn 250 a year or more is good for the troubled economy.

RASMUSSEN: Yes, and that perhaps is the most startling piece of news for supply side of Republicans, because generally people do believe that lower taxes are good for the economy. They still believe that in general.

But, this year they're saying to raise the taxes on those high income Americans would be good for the economy and, obviously, people support it out of a sense of fairness as well. That gives Obama a good chance -- a good dialogue on the tax issues.

COLMES: Are those numbers likely to change?

RASMUSSEN: You know it, depends on what happens. The concern for Obama has been from the beginning of this economic issue that people are afraid the government is going to get too involved.

And he may need to be worried about perhaps Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid getting a little too ambitious with some plans. And if he is seen as moving in that direction, it could be a problem.

But, for this year, the notion of changing those taxes on people earning more than a quarter of a million dollars a year is not likely to change.

COLMES: What does McCain need to do if he needs a game changer?

RASMUSSEN: You know John McCain needs to -- not panic. He doesn't want to throw a Hail Mary pass. He needs to present the best case he can in this debate on Wednesday. He needs to get Barack Obama on the defensive a little bit.

He needs to be talking about some other issue. And then he needs something else to happen. He needs a mistake by Obama. He needs a different issue.

You know, there is this young man was captured on the Pakistani border. Maybe that evolves into something.

COLMES: That's a.

RASMUSSEN: . that changes the national dialogue.

COLMES: . tall order. Thank you very much, Scott, for being with us tonight.

RASMUSSEN: It is.

COLMES: Appreciate it.