Parties Brace For Dem Sweep

Just a week before what independent analysts and strategists for both parties say could be an unprecedented second straight wave election, Democrats and Republicans alike are preparing for an historic number of Democratic freshmen in the 111th Congress.

While Democrats struggle to lower expectations in order to declare victory and an electoral mandate, Republicans are engaged in a very different challenge. Even GOP members of Congress who haven't faced a difficult re-election in years find themselves fighting for their political lives.

The two parties are reacting very differently to the impending wave. Democrats are walking a delicate tightrope of advising reporters to keep an eye on various Republicans they think are vulnerable while maintaining that achieving any big gains is a long shot.

One party strategist recently suggested keeping an eye on Reps. Henry Brown of South Carolina, Michael McCaul of Texas and California's Brian Bilbray while suggesting Democrats would only pick up a dozen seats. Another top strategist privately estimated Democrats' chances of winning 60 seats in the Senate at just 5%.

Today, both of those guesses seem dramatically lower than political reality would suggest. In the Senate, Democrats are virtually assured of winning GOP-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico, and Alaska (Senator Ted Stevens was convicted yesterday afternoon of seven counts of lying on his financial disclosure forms). Democrats lead by large margins in Colorado and New Hampshire, while Democratic challengers lead Republican incumbents by smaller margins in Oregon, Minnesota and North Carolina, and are running close to GOP incumbents in Georgia and Kentucky.

On the House side, Republican strategists last week circulated a list of 75 vulnerable seats, the vast majority of which their party already held. As Democrats find themselves defending just a handful of seats, Republicans are privately warning that at least eleven seats are already gone, barring "a significant turn of events." Seven more seats, they say, lean to Democrats.

Those dire forecasts -- the GOP, by contrast, is confident only that Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney's seat will return to their fold -- have kicked off what Republican strategists call a circular firing squad hell-bent on shedding the blame. The finger-pointing extends from the presidential level, where reports over the weekend indicate aides loyal to John McCain have grown irritated with vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's performance and vice versa, to the congressional level, where Republicans are increasingly bold in predicting a McCain loss.

In perhaps the most blatant display, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is warning of the possibility of Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, suggesting John McCain might lose. As part of their argument to North Carolina voters, the NRSC has launched an ad arguing that a vote for Democrat Kay Hagan is a vote for a blank check for liberals. "These liberals want complete control of government in a time of crisis. All branches of government," the moderator intones. "That's the truth behind Kay Hagan: If she wins, they get a blank check."

In a speech in Cedar Falls, Iowa this weekend, McCain himself hinted at the potentially historic losses Republicans face. Democrats, warned McCain, would move for higher taxes and bigger government. "That's what's going to happen if the Democrats have total control of Washington," he said. "We can't let that happen."

With just a week to go, it's hard to imagine a game-changing incident that would propel Republicans back into contention, or even to a point at which the party could limit its losses. Democrats continue downplaying their expectations, but by next Tuesday, voters seem all but assured of bolstering the party's 2006 triumphs. Republican operatives, some of whom are just now coming to grips with the national atmosphere while others have already accepted their fate, can only hope their comeback starts November 5.