Senate Dems Open Wallets to Expand Map

With a favorable wind at their backs, Senate Democrats have largely succeeded in expanding the national playing field into previously impregnable Republican territory. The party has spent millions to close financial gaps their candidates face against Republican incumbents, aided in some part by their own members.

That isn't the case for the GOP. Though the National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised their Democratic counterparts by a small margin, few Republican incumbents have invested significant resources in the NRSC's efforts to defend their minority.

The NRSC raised $5.1 million in August, more than the $4.4 million the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised. At the end of the month, though, the DSCC still held a $33.7 million to $26.8 million advantage over the Republican committee.

That $7 million disparity is a far smaller advantage than Democrats have enjoyed all year. But that's because the party has already started spending heavily on their efforts to win in November. Democrats spent $13.7 million on advertising in August, compared with just $3 million spent by Republicans.

Democrats' lopsided spending spree has gone mostly toward independent expenditure advertising in four states with Senate seats currently held by Republicans. Political watchers agree that Colorado is one of the party's top pickup opportunities, but significant ad buys have also gone to close early Republican leads in Oregon, Mississippi and North Carolina.

In each state, a Republican incumbent now faces a challenger running far closer than they did early this cycle. By expanding the playing field into what might otherwise be three safe GOP seats, Democrats have given themselves a chance for success beyond their initial targets.

Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker is up against former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Because Wicker was appointed to the seat when Trent Lott resigned last year, the race will feature candidates on the ballot without party labels, aiding Musgrove in what will otherwise be a heavily Republican state. Polls have mostly showed Wicker leading by a small margin.

At the beginning of the cycle, few expected North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole to be a serious Democratic target. But State Senator Kay Hagan has impressed many with her fundraising ability, and with Democrats spending millions on attack ads, most polls now show the race within the margin of error.

In Oregon, Republican Gordon Smith faces perhaps the weakest of the three Democratic challengers in state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who only barely won his primary. But the attacks Democrats have funded have seriously hurt Smith, sending a once-high approval rating spiraling downward and giving Merkley a strong chance at winning in November.

Democrats have been able to close gaps in so many races thanks to the $103 million the party has raised this cycle. In an effort to defend his seats, NRSC chairman John Ensign boldly declared in July that his committee would match, dollar for dollar, independent expenditures from the DSCC, counting on his colleagues to donate to the cause.

By late August, Ensign backtracked, thanks, he said, to his colleagues. "I recently challenged my colleagues to step up to the plate and help me provide the resources our candidates need to compete in races across the country," Ensign said in a statement last month. "It has become clear that my call has gone largely unanswered." The NRSC has raised about $67.6 million in the same period.

Some Republicans have chipped in to close the gap. Eight senators have written checks totaling more than $100,000, with Ensign himself leading the way at $500,000 donated. Since Ensign made his call for contributions, only Senators Kit Bond of Missouri, Thad Cochran of Mississippi and Richard Lugar of Indiana chipped in with six-figure donations. Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who faces his own re-election bid this year, gave $50,000.

Still, only six sitting senators have contributed more to the NRSC than Lott, who retired late last year. Lott's PAC has contributed $200,000 so far. But of the 31 Republicans who have contributed to the NRSC, the overwhelming majority have donated only $15,000 per year from their leadership PACs, the minimum required by the caucus.

Party strategists are quietly frustrated at some members sitting on massive warchests without giving significantly. Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, whose political action committee has contributed $15,000, had just over $13 million in the bank for his 2010 reelection; Shelby won a third term in 2004 with 68% after spending $1.9 million. Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter has $5.2 million in the bank and has yet to contribute to the NRSC, though his PAC has given to twelve GOP Senate campaigns.

Democratic incumbents, on the other hand, have been far more generous with their contributions. While thirty Republicans have contributed an average of $90,000 each to the NRSC, forty one Democrats have given an average of $143,000 each.

Montana Senator Max Baucus has given the most, transferring $615,000 from committees he controls, while Arkansas freshman Mark Pryor has given $515,000. All told, twenty Democrats have contributed more than $100,000, though that doesn't include Schumer, who has raised millions for his committee.

Republicans will brag that their committee outraised Democrats through August and closed the gap between the two parties. But the GOP's success last month came as Democrats spent heavily on improving their chances for November. As Democratic members invest in their own majority, and appear likely to build that majority, Ensign continues to work on persuading cautious Republicans to help him save seats.

"It is still my hope that my Republican colleagues will engage in this election and help match what the Democrats are doing," Ensign said in his August statement. "If they do, I will adjust our budget accordingly." Given the amount of money Democrats are spending in once-solidly Republican states that are now in play, it may already be too late.