Scott Rasmussen on the Latest Polling

COLMES: The new FOX News/Rasmussen Poll released today shows the race is tight in all five swing states and it's still anybody's race to win. The biggest change is out of Colorado where last week Obama was in the lead by three points.

This week, McCain is now in the lead 48 to Obama at 46. In Florida, the candidates were tied last week, but now Senator McCain leads with 49 to Obama at 44. In Ohio, McCain continues to be at the lead at 48 to Obama at 45, but his lead looks to be shrinking.

And finally, it looks like the two candidates are in a dead heat in both Pennsylvania and Virginia. In Pennsylvania, they're tied at 47. In Virginia, they are neck and neck at 48.

Joining us now from "Rasmussen Reports," Scott Rasmussen.

Scott, welcome back. Now we.

SCOTT RASMUSSEN, RASMUSSEN REPORTS: Great to be here, Alan.

COLMES: So we're basically seeing within the margin of error here that this could go either way in the states we just talked about. It's probably where the race will be decided. Is that an accurate analysis?

RASMUSSEN: Yes, I think these are among the most significant states you're going to find anywhere, and what we're really seeing is the race nationally shows John McCain ahead by a point or two, which is just what George Bush won by four years ago. So you expect the electoral map to look pretty much like it did four years ago and that's what we're seeing.

Virginia is doing a little better for the Democrats than four years ago. Pennsylvania, right now, doing a little better for the Republicans. But overall, anybody who tells you they know who's going to win this thing is lying or delusional.

COLMES: Why is it that there is not much of a distance four years ago, given what we keep hearing about the satisfaction with the economy, with the war, with the Bush administration, with people running the House and the Senate? Why then no difference in the polls?

RASMUSSEN: Well, one thing you just said at the very end is dissatisfaction with those running for the House and Senate. You know, the Congress was taken over two years ago by Democrats. That's worked out very well for John McCain.

Big issue, though, right now, Barack Obama still hasn't convinced people he's prepared to be president. Polling out today showed only 44 percent believe that he's ready for the job. He's got to make that sale.

COLMES: Does this come down to the debates?

RASMUSSEN: I think the debates are likely to be the divisive events. About 17 percent of voters nationally said they can still change their mind and there's no other scheduled event that could have the impact that debates will have.

Now, you know, I mentioned scheduled events because we had some major financial event over the weekend. There could be some other shocks between now and Election Day to see how the candidates react. But I think the debates are the key.

COLMES: Here's what I don't understand, I guess, maybe because I'm in the business, and I have strong views and Sean has strong views. We debate it every night.

How does 17 percent, given the disparity ideologically of the candidates, have no idea which way they're going to go at this point? How can that be?

RASMUSSEN: Well, first of all, it's not that that they have no idea. Most of those 17 percent are leaning in one way or the other. They're not sure. Some of them are leaning towards Barack Obama, but they're not sure he's up to the job. Some of them are leaning in John McCain's direction, but have doubts about him.

But, you know, you keep -- you said it right at front. You're in the business, you live and breathe this every day, you worry about the latest commercial and the latest spin from either side.

Most Americans are getting their kids back in school and they're worrying of other things. There's about a quarter of the American people who are not talking about this election at all during their day to day lives and who are going to be voting.

HANNITY: Hey, Scott, good to see you. Are.

RASMUSSEN: Good to see you, Sean.

HANNITY: You have John McCain. He continues to be up in Ohio, continues to be up in Florida.

RASMUSSEN: Right.

HANNITY: He's tied in your poll dead even in Pennsylvania. We've got a Minneapolis "Star Tribune" poll out today, 45-45 in Minnesota, and there's a similar poll where it's that close in Michigan. And he's taken over Colorado according to your poll.

That seems to be a pretty good shift in his direction.

RASMUSSEN: Well, you know, Sean, when you say taken over, a couple of these things are very close. I do think John McCain has the edge in Ohio and the edge in Florida. Certainly not locked up by any means, but most polling shows him doing fairly well there. And our polls have consistently shown him doing well.

Colorado is a pure toss-up. I mean McCain is up by a couple this time, he's down a little the last time. That stayed very much in play. Minnesota is a state the Republicans had hoped to win to their column for a long time. It never quite seemed to go there.

(INAUDIBLE) Walter Mondale won there and Ronald Reagan's 49 state sweep.

HANNITY: Yes.

RASMUSSEN: But, what we're seeing is this is a very close election. I mean, this is something -- if I had told you a month ago that this is what the polls would look like, you would have been thrilled. Because nobody expected John McCain to be doing this well at this point in time.

Now, the question is can he keep it going after the debates?

HANNITY: No -- well, that's going to be the key now.

The other poll that you referenced earlier where by nearly 20 points Americans see that John McCain is more prepared to be president. Those late deciders, that would convince me, that they'd be more likely to go with Senator McCain.

RASMUSSEN: Well, that's unless there's a way that Barack Obama can shift that. Right now 63 percent say that John McCain is prepared to be president. 44 percent say Barack Obama is.

HANNITY: Yes.

RASMUSSEN: And, by the way, interesting, 50 percent say that Joe Biden is ready for president. So the number two person on the ticket comes out a little better.

HANNITY: Those bitter Americans in Pennsylvania clinging to guns and religion -- if you're John McCain would you run that ad again and again and again? Because I would.

RASMUSSEN: And again and again. And again. And Sarah Palin is going to be a lot of small towns in Pennsylvania.

HANNITY: All right. Good to see you, Scott Rasmussen. We'll be checking in weekly now -- we have seven weeks to go -- with all your latest poll numbers.

And by the way, even New York is a five-point race and New Jersey a three-point race. Who would have ever thought they may be.

RASMUSSEN: We're polling those.

HANNITY: What?

RASMUSSEN: We're polling those states now. We'll have some new information this week.

HANNITY: All right, we'll look forward to it at RasmussenReports.com. By the way, I'm a premium member. You want to become a premium member.