How McCain & Obama Can Win or Lose Tonight

Now that John McCain is on his way to Oxford, Mississippi and the first debate of the 2008 presidential election appears on track, both candidates are making last-minute preparations for what could be the most crucial ninety minutes of their campaigns.

Each arrives at the University of Mississippi with different goals. To be declared the winner, Barack Obama and John McCain need to answer critical questions in voters' minds, while avoiding pitfalls for which the two thousand gathered reporters are on the lookout.

In debates, it's not always about which candidate wins; it can also be about how the other candidate loses. Here, then, is how Obama and McCain can win and lose tonight:

How Obama Wins

Fortuitously for the Obama campaign, recent troubles on Wall Street have dimmed the importance of foreign policy in voters' minds as the economy has gained importance. Obama isn't the best candidate at feeling voters' pain, but he's a lot better than John McCain.

Tonight, Obama has the opportunity to put McCain on defense on the economy while simultaneously answering a fundamental question for undecided voters. As moderator Jim Lehrer asks tough and substantive foreign policy questions, Obama must not overreach in his answers, but he can go toe-to-toe with McCain in a substantive manner.

No one will argue that Obama is more experienced than John McCain. But in 1960, no one argued that John Kennedy was more experienced than two-term Vice President Richard Nixon. Kennedy survived their first debate, proving to voters that he could at least stand up to Nixon. If Obama can stand up to McCain, he will show those who may worry he's too green to lead that Democrats are done ceding ground to Republicans on national security.

Early questions are likely to focus on the economy, but when they eventually move to foreign policy, Obama shouldn't try to reverse course. Making a clear, coherent and -- most importantly -- concise case for his vision of American foreign policy without dodging questions will make Obama the winner.

How McCain Wins

John McCain has a temper. This is not breaking news. But unlike other candidates, McCain's temper can at times work to his advantage. McCain can use tonight's debate, and others, to demonstrate to voters his assertion that he is ready to lead while Obama is not.

And like Obama, McCain has boxes he needs to check on issues important to undecided voters. He admits to not being an economic wiz, and his recent statement that the fundamentals of the American economy are strong was a major gaffe.

Too, McCain is in the crosshairs. After kind-of-sort-of suspending his campaign this week, it will be McCain who gets the most scrutiny when questioning inevitably, and probably early, turns to the current economic crisis. If McCain can come up with a firm, brief and sensible answer summarizing his economic views in a way that speaks to voters, he can convince voters that he is the right candidate to handle the economy.

Finally, McCain has to reassert experience over any other qualification of change. He can't directly steal Ronald Reagan's line that he won't hold Obama's youth and inexperience against him, but highlighting the differences in longevity of tenure can still be a plus for McCain.

How Obama Loses

Early in the primary season, at several of the seemingly interminable Democratic debates, it was impossible to tell whether the person answering a question was Senator Barack Obama or Professor Barack Obama. As tragic a commentary as it is on society, Obama's intellect works against him in debates.

As was evident at a forum at Saddleback Church last month, Obama enjoys teasing out a question, framing it in his own way, before delivering an answer. That's not how politics works. A candidate has twenty-five words to hook a voter. If Obama plays professor before establishing his point, voters will tune out.

The format this evening provides Obama opportunities to both fall into his old habits or break out of them. Two minutes for an opening statement on a question is a long time, and if Obama starts to explain before he gets to the point, he will have wasted it. Then again, the four or five minutes of free-flowing back and forth between the two candidates could force Obama to be on target, quick and punchy.

If Professor Obama shows up tonight, he will lose. If Candidate Obama has learned his lesson about getting to the point, he can avoid that fate.

How McCain Loses

John McCain has a temper. Or was that point already made? If McCain comes across as too hot, he will play into every stereotype the Obama campaign has been quietly hinting at for weeks now. Instead of Maverick McCain, he will become Angry McCain (McCain has turned his temper on his own colleagues before; one Republican Senate colleague said the thought of McCain as president gave him shivers).

Though he may be just as smart, and he's certainly as quick on his feet, McCain does not share the same professorial streak Obama does. That's not to say the Arizona senator sees the world in black and white and has no eye for nuance; on the contrary, he does. But McCain knows what he thinks, and he says it quickly.

The moment McCain is thrown off that game plan of quick, concise answers is the moment he loses. And make no mistake, the Obama campaign has done their best to set a trap for McCain, one in which his temper comes out.

Whether it's an Obama spokesman calling McCain's campaign dishonorable, an insinuation -- intentional or not -- about his age or something as simple as a misspoken sentence (Here's to you, Mitt Romney), Obama's campaign has given McCain plenty of opportunities to get angry. If he does, voters might get scared off, and that's a great way to lose a debate.

The fundamentals of the presidential race remain largely as they were before the conventions. Barack Obama has a clear, if small, lead in both national polls and electoral battleground polls. McCain is struggling to catch up and change the narrative (Regardless of the wisdom, or lack thereof, of making such a comment, McCain manager Rick Davis was right when he said the race will be more about personalities than issues).

Whether it is McCain or Obama who attracts, or turns off, the most voters, polls later this week will show an electorate with new ideas about the candidates. Something will shift tonight, and for whom, or how much, hinges not only on who wins, but on who loses.