The Panel Discusses Tuesday's Primaries

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SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) NEW YORK: This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What I want to do is make sure I'm finishing strong, that I'm talking about to the American people about their hopes, their dreams, that they feel confident that the solutions I'm offering and the kind of politics that I've been promoting will make a difference in their lives.

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BAIER: Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama talking about the prospects for Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

Let's take a quick look at the average of the polls, the realclearpolitics.com averages. Indiana as it stands now--Hillary Clinton is up 47.5 percent to 43.1 percent. In North Carolina Barack Obama holds the lead, 49.5 percent to 41.3 percent. Again, these are the averages of the polls.

Now let's get the analysis of what is ahead this week. Some observations of from Fred Barnes of "The Weekly Standard," Mort Kondracke of "Roll Call," and syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer, FOX News contributors all.

Fred, how does it look to you?

FRED BARNES, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "THE WEEKLY STANDARD": Well, I think Indiana looks pretty good for Hillary Clinton. Remember that Barack Obama usually over-polls a few points. In the realclear average she was eight points behind. He doesn't over-poll that much. She will have to get closer than that.

There is this history--in almost every primary where the late deciders have gone for her for a variety of reasons. Here's what she needs though. Unless there is some breakthrough here, Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee.

She needs to win a big primary upset. North Carolina would qualify and maybe Oregon in a few weeks would qualify as one where Obama is supposed to win. I think she also needs to really gain a lot in the popular vote--the way the system is, she can only gain so much among delegates.

And then the real sign that she's going somewhere will be if super delegates who have endorsed Obama switch to her. Now, we have seen a few go the other way, like Joe Andrew this week, but we haven't seen a single Obama super delegate -- and they are not bound -- we haven't seen one switch from him to her.

If that starts happens, then we will know something is really up.

BAIER: Mort, you heard her today say potentially Tuesday is a game changer. How is it a game changer?

MORT KONDRAKE, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "ROLL CALL": It would be a significant game changer if she won both Indiana and North Carolina. He has been ahead in North Carolina by up to 20 points. That was overstating it, but he is up by, what, nine now.

And if she were to pull that one out, that would cause super delegates, I think, to stop going in his direction and wait. And if it's a split, which everybody expects it to be, this thing is just going to go on and on and on.

I think one other thing that could conceivably be a game changer is if match ups between McCain and the two of them begin to show a wide disparity in her favor, something like six points that she now beats McCain and I think Obama is now tied, that that would have to continue over a period of time and get wider and wider and make it obvious that white working class people are simply not going to vote for him and that they would vote for her.

I think those things could be game changers. Otherwise, he is ahead in delegates. He will stay ahead in regular delegates because the African- American districts have more delegates in them. He carries them by a wide margin, so he gets those.

And the popular vote, she would have to--I don't see how she can catch up. I did some math on this, and I don't think she can catch up.

BAIER: Charles, we have been talking this week, obviously, about Reverend Wright and what the impact of that is on Obama. Rasmussen has a new poll out saying--the question was how likely is it that Obama shares Wright's views? Somewhat likely--30 percent, very likely--26 percent.

And was he outraged, or was it politically convenient to come out and say what he said? Outrage--30 percent, politically convenient--58 percent.

What do you take from those polls and the issue for Obama?

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: I think he has been obviously hurt, and I think it's a permanent amount of damage. But I'm not sure it increases.

I think the real problem, and I think the thing that Democrats will have to consider, is that if Wright reemerges--now he is quiet gain and he could remain quiet. But if he reemerges, and he has a book coming out later in the year, and if he is on a tour--if he repeats his rant, it's not going to make a difference, it's not going to hurt Obama additionally.

But there is one thing he could do, and that is if he contradicts Obama's claims oft repeated that he didn't nullify any of his views.

Let's say he talks about a couple of meetings he had had in private in which he talked about AIDS or 9/11, or he says he was in the pew when I spoke about x, y and z. If he did that, that would undermine Obama's veracity, and make him out to be a liar.

It would reignite the issue in a different way. It would be Obama as the man who talks straight and is honest in a new kind of politics.

In that sense he's hostage, because Wright is out there the whole time, and if he decides he wants to say something like that, that would destroy Obama.

I think Democrats have to have that in the back of their minds.

BAIER: Will we hear Obama on Wright before Tuesday?

KRAUTHAMMER: No. I think this episode is over. I think he stops the bleeding by renouncing--

(CROSSTALK)

BAIER: He will be asked about it, of course, but is he going to initiate it.

KONDRAKE: His problem is that it constantly keeps coming up. He can't change the subject. This gas tax thing is not superseding the Wright affair.

BAIER: That's the last word here.