Middle East Shares Fear of a Nuclear Iran

JERUSALEM -- As a result of misguided American policy, the threat of another military confrontation hangs like a dark cloud over the Middle East. The United States' enemies have been strengthened, and Iran has been catapulted into regional hegemony.

A hitherto latent rivalry between Iran and Israel thus has been transformed into an open struggle for dominance in the Middle East. The result has been the emergence of some surprising, if not bizarre, alliances: Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and American-backed, Shiite-dominated Iraq are facing Israel, Saudi Arabia and most of the other Sunni Arab states, all of which feel existentially threatened by Iran's ascendance.

The danger of a major confrontation has been heightened further by high oil prices, which have bolstered Iran, the defeat of the West and its regional allies in proxy wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the U.N. Security Council's failure to induce Iran to accept even a temporary freeze of its nuclear program.

Iran's nuclear program is the decisive factor in this equation, for it threatens to upend irreversibly the region's strategic balance. After all, politics is not just about facts, but also about perceptions; and, regardless of their accuracy, perceptions lead to decisions.

This applies in particular when the perception concerns existential threats. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's threats of annihilation are taken seriously in Israel because of the trauma of the Holocaust. Also, most Arab governments share the fear of a nuclear Iran.

Anyone listening closely to what was said in Israel during the 60th anniversary celebrations earlier this month did not have to be a prophet to understand that matters are coming to a head.

Consider the following:

• ''Stop the appeasement!'' is a demand raised across the political spectrum in Israel -- and what is meant is the nuclear threat emanating from Iran.

• While Israel celebrated, Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quoted as saying that a life-and-death military confrontation was a distinct possibility.

• The outgoing commander of the Israeli air force declared that the air force was capable of any mission, no matter how difficult, to protect the country's security. The destruction of a Syrian nuclear facility last year, and the lack of any international reaction to it, are viewed as a good example for the coming action against Iran.

• The Israeli wish list for U.S. arms deliveries, discussed with the American president, focused mainly on the improvement of the attack capabilities and precision of the Israeli air force.

• Diplomatic initiatives and U.N. sanctions are seen as hopelessly ineffective.

• With the approaching end of the George W. Bush presidency and uncertainty about his successor's policy, the window of opportunity for Israeli action is seen as potentially closing.

The last two factors carry special weight. While Israeli military intelligence is on record that Iran is expected to cross the red line on the path to nuclear power between 2010 and 2015 at the earliest, the feeling in Israel is that the political window of opportunity is now, during the last months of Bush's presidency.

Although it is acknowledged in Jerusalem that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would involve grave and hard-to-assess risks, the choice between acceptance of an Iranian bomb and an attempt at its military destruction, with all the attendant consequences, is clear. Israel won't stand by and wait for matters to take their course.

The Middle East is drifting toward a new great confrontation. Iran must understand that, without a diplomatic solution in the coming months, a dangerous military conflict is very likely to erupt. It is high time for serious negotiations to begin.

The most recent offer by the six powers -- the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members plus Germany -- is on the table, and it goes very far to accommodate Iran's interests.

The decisive question, however, will be whether it will be possible to freeze the Iranian nuclear program for the duration of the negotiations to avoid a military confrontation before they are completed.

Should this newest attempt fail, things will soon get serious. Deadly serious.