
Regardless of the outcome this November, the state of the major political parties in America will be far different than anyone expected at the beginning of the 2008 cycle.
On the GOP side, the Republican National Committee was a well-known bastion of Mitt Romney supporters. But John McCain's resurrection -- Phoenix is an appropriate hometown for him -- dashed the hopes of conservative Republicans. At the same time, the Democrats never expected Barack Obama, popular as he was even early on, to be a real force in the contest. Hillary Clinton, still in the race, however precariously, has not lived up to the hopes of the dyed-in-the-wool DLC Democrats hoping for a return to the heyday of her husband.
None of that, however, would normally spell the end of the parties as we know them. But while Senator McCain has solid conservative credentials in practice and on paper, his willingness and ability to reach across the aisle have made some on the right suspicious of his true motives. His nomination steers the RNC toward a more centrist place than it's been since Richard Nixon was the nominee.
Should Senator McCain capture the White House, his presidency and control of the party could leave social conservatives, who comprise about a third of the party, on the outside looking in.
The Democrats have an entirely different problem. Senator Obama has turned the Democratic primary into a full-fledged movement within the party. His wing now appears to make up a majority of Democrats in the country. Senator Clinton still counts much of the party machinery among her supporters, but, regardless of the outcome of their contest, Obama's rise forces the party to face something that's been staring at them for some time: They have been a movement without a coherent ideological framework for too long.
In a way, the parties appear to be trading places. Dedicated Republicans have long been accused of being unwavering ideologues, willing to lose on principle rather than win on compromise. A John McCain presidency would radically shift that dynamic, if he follows the bipartisan method he used in the Senate.
Democrats, even before Bill Clinton, have been painted as waffling, poll-obsessed surrender monkeys; the champion of the little guy but still beholden to well-funded special interests. Hillary Clinton as nominee would likely continue that trend. Obama, however, could radically return the belief system of the Democrats to the days of FDR federal intervention and the party's image to the days of Kennedy's Camelot.
Voters today, as we have seen from this cycle's chaotic and at times schizophrenic primary season, are better informed and more engaged than in any election in recent memory, especially on the Democratic side. This is not to say that Republican voters are uninformed, quite the contrary, but with Iraq starting its fifth year and the economic downturn, they have been discouraged about the party's prospects and turned to a maverick known for his detachment from the conservative elite.
With the dawn of the 21st century, we've seen revolutions in almost every facet of American life. Why shouldn't it be the same with our politics? Why must party politics be relegated to two choices? In an era of growing individual choice, personality politics will become ever more dominant. Rather than a party putting forward a candidate, John McCain has taken over the Republican Party and it appears that Barak Obama may wrest control of the Democratic Party from the Clintons.
Both choices represent the diminished power of the party structure. Is it any surprise that we're now looking for something more than Republican or Democrat?
Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/have_we_seen_the_end_of_twopar.html at November 23, 2009 - 05:39:11 AM CST