Rove, Matalin, And Ford Jr. Talk 2008

Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. I'm Alan Colmes. We get right to our top story tonight. Just 23 days before the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd, and it's anybody's guess who the winners will be. Earlier today, Sean spoke in an exclusive interview with the Architect Karl Rove about all the candidates running for president and how the next month will shake out.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Here we are, 23 days before Iowa...

ROVE: Isn't it amazing? We are in December and it is -- we are planning on the third of January to have Iowa. How sad is that? There are going to be drunks in Des Moines still getting off their News Years hangover. They're going to be going to the caucuses.

HANNITY: Still wide open in both the Republican primary, the Democratic primary.

ROVE: Right.

HANNITY: Give me your broad overview, and then I will ask you some specific questions.

ROVE: Well, you are right, it is wide open. Not too many people know much about these candidates except in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the calendar -- because the calendar starts so early and is so compressed, people are spending a lot of time in those two states.

And, really, people in the rest of the country don't know as much about these candidates as the people in those two states do, which is sort of sad. I mean, if the -- I'm not certain it is good and healthy for the country to have this process start so early and happen so quickly.

HANNITY: Traditionally, it would be, we go to Iowa, then we go to New Hampshire. You have a break in between. Then you go to South Carolina. And this thing would wind down in California some time in June. This whole thing now has been compressed.

Is it possible -- if we look at the front runners, for example, would it be possible for Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton to lose Iowa, New Hampshire, maybe South Carolina, and yet still come back and win the primary and the nomination?

ROVE: It could, as long as the early contests are all bunched up, so there is not really much difference between first, second, and third. Yes, that could be.

HANNITY: Right.

ROVE: You are right, though, it is going to happen very quickly. Think about this, in 2000, I think it was the 24th of January was Iowa. Eight days later was New Hampshire; 19 days later was South Carolina, four days later was Michigan, and seven days later were Virginia, North Dakota, and Washington State. Seven contests in one month.

There will be 28 contests in the first month of this thing.

HANNITY: So pretty dramatic. But there seems to be emerging strategies and different strategies. For example, Mitt Romney, I think, put a lot of his time, money, energy, resources in the early states. Rudy Giuliani seemed to look to Florida first and then hoping to get to February 5th, this big Super Tuesday.

ROVE: Right. I think that is a good summary of it. I do think it has changed over time. I think Romney has tended to elongate his organizational efforts, that is to say, move into states that are further along on the time frame.

And similarly, Rudy has inched forward a little bit, not in Iowa, but I think in New Hampshire, inched forward a little bit by trying to organize a little bit more in-depth there and spend a little bit more time.

HANNITY: All right. Let's start with the Democrats. I really found fascinating you wrote in "The Financial Times" a memo from Karl Rove to Barack Obama. And the headline was "Win Iowa or Lose the Race."

You said: "Iowa is your best chance to best her. If you don't do it there, odds are you will never do it anywhere."

ROVE: Right.

HANNITY: He is now leading in Iowa.

ROVE: Right, right. Yes -- no, he needs to beat her in Iowa so the - - I mean, her entire candidacy is based upon inevitability. She is the person who deserves to have it. It is sort of ironic, that is the argument we used to have in the Republican ranks. I'm the guy who deserves it because I have waited long enough to get the nomination.

And if you make the case inevitability, and you then get beat in one of these early states, then things get really raucous down the way. So he has got to beat her in Iowa. If he doesn't, she will win -- if she wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then she is likely to win South Carolina and he is likely to be out of it.

HANNITY: You gave him specific things that you suggest that he follow. Among which -- first of all, you talked about the fact that Hillary is making "unforced errors."

ROVE: Right.

HANNITY: So she is providing him an opportunity here.

ROVE: Right. Well, but he doesn't take advantage of them. As I said in the article, my first piece of advice would stop being a "vitamin- deficient Adlai Stevenson."

HANNITY: Adlai Stevenson, right.

ROVE: I mean, the guy -- she gives him these openings and he just -- he can't take her on effectively. He has in the last couple of weeks started to. And I think that is part of his rise. But he has missed some big ones.

Philadelphia, as I cite in the article, is the biggest example. She gets asked by Russert about the secret documents that she and President Clinton have attempted to hide at the library, and she gives a mealy- mouthed response.

He speaks next -- Obama speaks next, and he can't bring himself to turn to her and say, Senator Clinton, with all due respect, you and your husband could make those documents available tomorrow if you wanted to, and your failure to do so raises some real doubts in people's minds as to what you are hiding. And those doubts will cause our party problems if you are our nominee in the fall. So please, for the sake of our party, sake of our country, change course.

HANNITY: But you added one other part of that, too. And that is that he should have turned to her and looked at her directly.

ROVE: Right.

HANNITY: And said it, not in a confrontational way, but in a forceful way.

ROVE: Right, right.

HANNITY: The words you used at one point were that he needs to sharpen his attack and make those attacks more precise against her.

ROVE: Right. That night he was vague and indecisive and indistinct with his response to her. And he literally couldn't bring himself to look at her. I mean, he -- you know, you don't want to make the mistake that was made in the campaign against her for the United States Senate, where Rick Lazio walked into her space, much like Al Gore had walked into George W. Bush's space in the second debate.

But on the other hand, he does need to treat her with dignity, treat her with respect, but confront her head on and blow the whistle on her.

HANNITY: You also said that focus on the fact that many Democrats have doubts about Hillary -- and they do. And at another point during this campaign, you refer to her as a "fatally flawed" candidate.

ROVE: Right, yes. Well, look, I think the American people know her. And her negatives this year have ranged between 44 and 52. I have not been able to find in an open race for the presidency anybody in the Gallup poll who had negatives close to hers -- in an open race for the presidency.

The closest you can come is 2000, where Al Gore at one point peaks out at 31 percent negatives in the year leading up to the election. So people know her and he knows better -- he, Senator Obama, knows better than most what their concerns are. He is hearing them when he goes to the fund raiser in Hollywood and when he goes to the -- you know, wherever he is, he is hearing the criticisms and concerns the Democrats privately have about her.

He can make a critique of her in a very respectful, but nonetheless powerful way. And he has thus far largely failed to do it. Again, the last couple of weeks, he is doing better at it. He is trying to say, we don't want to go back to the way the politics was in the '90s. We want Democrats and Republicans working together for the best interests of the country, not engaged in the kind of warfare we routinely saw during the Clinton years.

I think it is effective. And I think it plays -- and it is effective because it plays on her weakness.

HANNITY: After reading this memo, do you think Barack Obama can beat her in the primary?

ROVE: I think he could. I doubt that he will. I think she is tough. I think she is surrounded by a very seasoned crew. They recognize that there are ups and down in a campaign. It will be interesting to see how she handles Iowa if she does lose, as I expect she will. You learn more about a candidate when they lose in a contest like that than when they win a contest like that.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HANNITY: All right, much more with Karl Rove coming up. So what does the Architect think about the Bill Clinton factor? We're going to ask him that. Plus, he also explains what the Republicans need to do if they want to beat Hillary.

And still to come tonight, Mike Huckabee might be enjoying a lead, but his rivals aren't wasting any time pointing out what they view as his flaws, as the Arkansas governor. Mary Matalin will be here with her take on the Hucka-boom, as well as all the other action from the campaign trail. And the Reverend Franklin Graham tonight.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: And we continue now with my exclusive interview with Karl Rove.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HANNITY: Let's talk about the Bill factor in all of this. There have been polls that show -- is he a net positive/net negative, minus eight. He is a negative for her. And that was prior to him saying, I was against this war from the beginning, when in fact just the opposite was found out to be true.

ROVE: Yes. I think also, incidentally, this is one of these things that is very difficult to poll. So I was a little taken aback that the poll came out negative for him, because, look, you know, he is an engaging guy.

The American people have a -- you know, a good relationship with him. You know, he is entertaining. He is fun. He is charming. He is -- you know, we look back on him with a little certain rascally fondness.

But, nonetheless, he is a -- I think a big negative because how can you claim -- every presidential election is an election about change. It is about the future. How can you claim to be oriented to the future if your principal message is, let's go back to the way it was when Bill and I were in the White House together. I mean, that is not change. That is regression, not progression.

HANNITY: All right. So you believe she inevitably wins this nomination, then the question becomes for the Republicans, how do they defeat her? And I have my own thoughts on it. For example, I think if they go too negative, I think it creates a backlash.

ROVE: I think you are absolutely right.

HANNITY: I think if they focus on -- I call them the "Hannity six": cutting taxes; staying on offense in the war on terror; winning in Iraq; energy independence; free market solutions to health care; and point out the distinct differences that they have.

ROVE: Right. I think that is largely right. I think that there -- I think she wants a campaign in which the Republican nominee, selected plus or minus February 5th or 6th, comes roaring out with a negative attack on her. She wants that because she knows that the only way that she could win in a general election against a Republican candidate is if it gets down and ugly. So she wants that candidate to come hard.

I think -- I put this in a piece in "Newsweek." I think it is absolutely important that our nominee, once he is selected, come out and describe the narrative of their life to the American people. We should not confuse this primary process with an education process in which every American participates. They are not going to know that much about them.

So it is really important that our nominee come out and say, here is who I am. Here is what my life has been about. Here is what motivates me in public service. Here is what I have been able to achieve. Here is how you get to know me.

And then they have got to talk about their positive and optimistic vision for the future. And I think you are absolutely right, on issues like health care, it is going to be important for the Republicans to be able to talk in a way that people sitting around their kitchen table, worried about their health insurance premiums, or whether or not they, you know, are stuck in job because they can't take their health care with them, you know, say, hey, that makes sense to me. That guy is talking sense.

HANNITY: Mark Penn suggests and believes that his internal polling is showing -- that is Hillary's pollster, Mark Penn -- that, in fact, 25 percent of Republican women will vote for Hillary because of the, quote, "emotional connection that they will have with her as a woman." Possible?

ROVE: I think there will be some women, Republican, Democrat, and independent, for whom the fact that she is a women candidate is the vote decision. That is the thing on which their vote factors.

But I think it would be a terrible mistake for the Clinton campaign -- I hope they continue to believe that conversation that they laid out, because I -- look, at the end of the day, America has gotten to the point where we are looking, saying, this person, man or woman, are they up to the job? Do they have the values? Do they have the kind of personality and character that I'm looking for? Am I comfortable with them being, you know, the leader of the free world for the next four years?

And I think, at the end of the day, that is why her negatives are so high. People have real fundamental doubts about her.

HANNITY: All right. I read this memo to Barack Obama. If Karl Rove were to write a memo to Hillary Clinton at this stage, 23 days outside of Iowa, on what she needs to do to not only win the nomination, but to win the presidency, what would you advise her?

ROVE: Well, first, you have got to win the nomination. So, on the nomination, she has got to find a way to sharply contrast herself with Obama. What are her strengths that are naturally his weaknesses? What are the things that she is capable and able to do that he is not able to compete with her on? And she ought to make those the focal point of her campaign between now and the primary and the caucus.

What she has done heretofore is to say, I'm inevitable. I'm the person who deserves it. I'm the person that the Republicans fear. You know, I'm the person that the party, you know, has to nominate because I deserve it. She has not given people a clear narrative as to what it is that she would do as president, particularly in those early primary states. It has been inevitability.

So, you know, she has got to retool her message, just as Obama, in order to win, would have to -- has been retooling his.

HANNITY: All right. Before we get to the electoral map, which I think is going to be pretty interesting to watch this year here, let's talk a little bit about the Republican candidates that are running. You have got the big, what we are calling, I guess, the Hucka-boom factor.

Mike Huckabee has come out of nowhere. We have one poll, he is up now in Iowa by 20 points. But on top of that, as the -- now that he is a front runner, he is getting the added scrutiny that front runners get on immigration, on taxes and on the issue of parole and clemency here.

Is there a chance, do you think, Mike Huckabee could run away with this?

ROVE: Well, I think he stands a good chance of running well in Iowa. I'm not certain that he is organized in-depth beyond that. We will see, I mean, whether the...

HANNITY: Polls show numbers going up in states like Florida, South Carolina, even New Hampshire he is coming around in --

ROVE: Right. Well, he is still way down in the pack.

HANNITY: He is trailing in New Hampshire.

ROVE: And look, again, you know, these national polls -- the state polls matter. And in Iowa he has spent a lot of time and he has got some people, particularly in western Iowa, who are aboard. There is a social conservative, church-going group of people in western Iowa who attend the caucuses, who are fertile ground for Mike Huckabee. The question is, can he take that and go onto New Hampshire and then on to South Carolina? And that is a real question. We will see.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COLMES: And coming up, more with Karl Rove. He will give his take on Rudy's chance of winning, and what he thinks is wrong with the primaries.

And Mitt Romney is on the attack. He's got a new ad. But will going negative give him a boost in the polls? We'll break down the latest election news from the trail with the fastest segment in politics, all still to come on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: We now continue with Sean's exclusive interview to former senior adviser to President Bush, Karl Rove.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HANNITY: Let's talk a little bit about Rudy Giuliani. He still remains the leader in the polls, behind in Iowa. He seems to be moving up a little bit now in New Hampshire. But he is behind there. It is a tight race for everybody in South Carolina. But he is really leading in states like Florida, California, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. February 5th should be a good date for him if those polls hold.

ROVE: Right. The real question that he faces is -- he has made a strategic judgment that he can run well in one or two of the earlier states, not Iowa, but maybe New Hampshire, maybe South Carolina, not necessarily win, but protect himself so that by the fifth, when he gets these good states that he feels are a natural base for him. And what he is betting on is that there is no bandwagon effect that develops with one candidate doing consistently well in the early primary states, so they go into the fifth with a, you know, sort of natural momentum, and people saying, well, you know, so-and-so is looking like they are winning these races, why don't we go with him.

And it is a big strategic bet. And...

HANNITY: What do you do think, based on the new configuration, would you have advised him to follow that strategy?

ROVE: Look, this -- there are two different ways of looking at this. One says, focus on the early states because that is going to establish momentum. And the other one says, this is happening in such a short period of time that I can withstand losses in states that people don't expect me to win, and I can win by winning bigger states that are voting just momentarily later.

This is a big strategic bet that several candidates have found themselves on different sides of. We will see how it works out. We are going to know quick enough.

HANNITY: Do you lean towards one strategy over the other? Or you don't want to say?

ROVE: I don't want to say. I --

HANNITY: You do, though.

ROVE: But it is interesting to see that everybody has made their strategic bets. I'm not certain, incidentally, that this is helpful for the country, for this to be settled so quickly. I mean, people do need the -- this process ought to be spread out over time, in my opinion, because it allows more people to participate, more people in the country to develop a deeper understanding of who the candidates are, and for the people of America to make a more considered judgment.

This thing is happening so quick on so many different battle fronts that I'm not certain, regardless of who makes the -- who bet on the right strategy, there is going to be a bandwagon effect, no, national reputation is going to count -- no matter which way that works out, I'm not certain it is necessarily in the best interest of the country.

HANNITY: Let's talk about Governor Romney. Up until recently, was significantly in the lead in Iowa. He is doing well in New Hampshire. He is still leading there. Michigan is a state he is doing well in. He is competing in South Carolina. Those are the early states.

His strategy is what we were talking about, gain early momentum, take them to Florida, then Super Tuesday.

ROVE: Right.

HANNITY: Does it work?

ROVE: Well, again, I don't know. I mean, that is one of the interesting things for prognosticators.

HANNITY: But what do you think of the way he is running the campaign, then?

ROVE: I think he has run a very disciplined campaign. In fact, what is amazing is that we have had several campaigns on the Republican side that have exceeded expectations. Romney has been disciplined, well- organized. Rudy has been at a place in the polls that I don't think most observers, even his friends and advocates, would have thought he would have been a year ago. McCain, after this terrible start, the campaign blowing up -- you know, it is like the only kind of campaign that McCain could win is the kind of campaign that he is being forced to fight now, which is a guerrilla war.

Burn -- you know, he didn't want to. But all of his bases were burned. The supply lines were destroyed. The supplies were burned up. And he's out there fighting a guerrilla war, and it's made him, you know, sort of free and loose and out in the open.

HANNITY: What did you think about Romney's speech on religion that he gave last week?

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No candidate should become the spokesman for his faith, for if he becomes president, he will need the prayers of the people of all faiths?

HANNITY: Do you think that's a factor, a negative factor for him in this race?

ROVE: Look, I do think there are a small group of people who will not vote for a Mormon under any circumstance. I spent part of my youth in Utah, and I was a non-Mormon in a heavily Mormon community. And I have great respect for the Mormon people as a result. And I recognize that there are a small group. I think it's very small, though.

I think it was a very good speech. I thought it was powerfully delivered. It's something he clearly paid a lot of attention to. He wrote it himself, they say. And I accept that. It was, I thought, well done. And it was an important statement, not just about the journey of a Mormon towards the presidency, but, more importantly, the views of a guy who could be president of the United States about the role of faith in the public square. And I thought it was a very powerful statement.

HANNITY: What do you think about the Fred Thompson campaign? His best state now in the polls looks like it's South Carolina. A lot of people have been critical of his style. I've known Fred -- Senator Thompson a long time. That's -- that's -- what you see is what you get. I mean, that's always been him. And to his credit, he hasn't -- he's resisted the temptation to become somebody he's not.

ROVE: And look, he wants -- you know, he wants -- you know, he wants the job, and he wants the job -- to win the job in a way that he's comfortable with. And the way that he has campaigned and the way that he's constructed his campaign is who he is. You're right.

And authenticity matters in this campaign. I think it's why, in places like South Carolina, where people have been able to the measure of him, he's hung in in the polls. But again, he's -- he's on one of the sort of two camps that we've got. He's the one saying, "I think I can weather Iowa. I can weather New Hampshire with being back in the pack. And I can start to come to the fore in South Carolina." And again, it's a big bet, and we'll see.

HANNITY: Can he come back?

ROVE: Well, look, you know, that's the amazing thing about this election year. Nothing is pre-ordained. We are -- we have the longest presidential campaign in history. These candidates began running in.

HANNITY: A year ago.

ROVE: A year ago, yes. Think about this, Bill Clinton announced for president in 1991 in the middle of October. He'd been a candidate at this point for, you know, six, seven weeks.

HANNITY: Predictions. You want to predict who the candidates we be, number one? And number two, will the Republican or Democratic nominee win the election?

ROVE: I think it's going to be Hillary. I don't know who it's going to be on the Republican side. I think it is going to be a tough, hard- fought race. It will be up in the air right until the end. I think it's likely to be the Republican nominee. But this is going to be a race where every day is going to matter. And the quality of the candidates and the quality of their campaigns and the quality of their efforts and the enthusiasm of people and -- is going to matter, every single step of the way.

HANNITY: The architect, Karl Rove.

ROVE: Thank you, sir.

HANNITY: Thank you for stopping by. We appreciate it. Thank you very much.

ROVE: You bet.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HANNITY: And coming up, Mike Huckabee continues his rise in the polls. But will the Hucka-boom become a bust in the face of his Arkansas past? Mary Matalin will be here coming up next with analysis.

Later, what's more important to voters when it comes to Hillary, her famous husband or the experience that she says she has? Don't miss the fastest segment in politics. It's what you need to know. All of that, plus the Reverend Franklin Graham tonight, on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

HANNITY: Mike Huckabee continues his climb to the top of a crowded field of Republican contenders, but his rivals are not taking his success sitting down, and are now going after Huckabee's record.

So can the former Arkansas governor survive the scrutiny and continue his surge in the polls all the way to a win in Iowa?

Joining us now, former Bush and Cheney advisor and Fred Thompson supporter. Our good friend Mary Matalin is back.

Mary, how are you? Merry Christmas. Glad to see you.

MARY MATALIN, FRED THOMPSON SUPPORTER: Happy holidays, merry Christmas, and joyous new year.

HANNITY: You know, I was debating your husband. He had the line of the night. He goes, "Hannity, if you're any more successful, John Kerry will want to marry you." It did get -- it did get a good laugh.

What?

MATALIN: He's a card, Sean. I think he has a big crush on you.

HANNITY: But you know what? I will tell you he's a lot of fun to debate. And I enjoyed doing it.

But let me -- you're supporting Fred Thompson. His best polls right now seem to be in South Carolina. There was one report that he's pulling out of Iowa. Any truth to that?

MATALIN: No, we're in Des Moines. It's very icy and cold here, and we're anxious to be here. There's a big debate tomorrow, the Des Moines Register debate, very important one. No, he hasn't.

And these polls are meaningless, as Karl has referenced.

HANNITY: Yes.

MATALIN: If you look at the national polls, 75 percent of Republicans say they haven't really made up their mind. In Iowa 6 out of 10 Iowans, caucus-goers, say they could be persuaded to support another candidate. So this thing continues to be wide open.

HANNITY: Why do you think it is as wide open as it is? What do you make of Mike Huckabee's surge? And more importantly, I did notice Fred Thompson. And through his campaign they have been scrutinizing Huckabee's record very extensively, especially on issues of immigration and taxes and this clemency/parole issue we were discussing with him last night.

MATALIN: Right. Governor Huckabee is enjoying a lot of support here from a caucus community that is disproportionately fundamentalist Christian. Some 40 percent of these caucus goers are taking the measure of his social conservatism, which is real and authentic and moves them very much.

But Christians conservatives and all conservatives care at equal rates about national security, economic security, those other issues where conservatives -- you need to have a conservative record, which he clearly does not have. He's a tax-raiser. He's a government-expander. He's a nanny state, if you will. He has no national security experience. And he's been soft and has a very soft record on immigration.

So not just Iowa but, when you know, this is one contest here, which he should win by overwhelming margins, but it's not the end of the race.

COLMES: Hey, Mary, welcome back to our show.

Why is it that your candidate, Fred Thompson, 6 percent in Iowa and New Hampshire, 7 percent nationally? It seems like his best moment was before he announced, and it's been downhill ever since. Why is that?

MATALIN: Oh, Alan, the best moment for Fred Thompson is in front of him, because conservatives, particularly in Iowa and in these other early states, take their inordinate impact on the election.

And the process, very seriously in the end, they pick. And they will choose, because it is a choice. They will make a clear conservative choice. Barry Goldwater told us, and we're sort of in a very Goldwater moment here, where we have this choice of -- of a plethora of conservatives. And if we have a clear conservative choice, Americans choose the clear and consistent conservative.

COLMES: I would think so. But Mike Huckabee is certainly conservative. You may not like him on the certain key issues. But it seems like he is now resonating with conservatives. Why do you think he's the one resonating and not Fred Thompson?

MATALIN: He's resonating for the moment in Iowa, with as I just said, 40 percent of the Christian conservatives here, but Fred has enormous support amongst the conservative -- social conservatives. He has the right to life, national right to life endorsement. He has the South Carolina right to life endorsement, the Wisconsin right to life endorsement. He has the Southern Baptist Convention endorsement of the venerable Judge Paul Preface (ph).

So there's a lot of support going into this, and again, it's an insult to the caucus goers and the Christians in particular to say they care only about the social set of issues. They care about national security. He has no experience or any record on...

COLMES: But he's only in single digits. By the way, we'll talk about it in just a moment. Not one Republican candidate is viewed favorably by even half of the Republican electorate, according to a poll out today. So there's still great dissatisfaction with the field of Republican candidates.

MATALIN: I think we're dating, Alan. We have not had a primary like this in -- I don't know -- 68 years or something. We've had sort of a primogenitor Republican Party. We know who's coming up next. We do not have an establishment candidate in this cycle. That doesn't mean that we are dating or looking at these various candidates.

And we're also deciding, and conservatives understand this. We are deciding what the future of conservatism is going to be. And it's not going to be a paradoxical Republican, as the Wall Street Journal, Huckabee likes to call himself. It's going to be a clear and consistent conservative.

COLMES: I thought dating was the exciting stage. But I think we've had little of that happening.

Mary, nice to have you.

MATALIN: We're excited by ideas. You're excited by process, Alan.

HANNITY: Thanks, Alan.

COLMES: Republican ideas for the last number of years, not resonating so well. But we will continue the debate.

MATALIN: Watch us.

COLMES: Thank you very much.

We check in with Greta Van Susteren. She is here to tell us what's coming up right after "Hannity & Colmes" at 10 Eastern.

Good evening, Greta.

GRETA VAN SUSTEREN, HOST, "ON THE RECORD": Good evening, Alan.

Tonight we have new information about Sergeant Peterson out in Bolingbrook, Illinois. His former fiancee goes "On the Record." Plus, the legal panel is here and much more.

Back to you, Alan.

COLMES: Thank you very much.

And coming up next, Obama pulls ahead of Hillary in South Carolina. Was it all because of Oprah? We'll show you the surprising poll numbers as we kick off the fastest segment in politics, coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: Now it's time for the fastest political segment on TV. On tape first tonight, latest New York Times poll reveals Republican voters -- and I mentioned this a moment ago, not that happy with their options. Not a single one of the leading candidates ranks at 50 percent favorable rating, with only Rudy Giuliani even breaking 40 percent.

With us, FOX News contributor Harold Ford Jr. Author of the new book, "Meet the President: What You Don't Know About the Candidates," senior White House correspondent for the Washington Examiner, Bill Sammon. Congratulations on the new book.

BILL SAMMON, WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Thank you.

COLMES: What do you make of that? This new poll out, none of them come close to the Republican -- to the Democratic candidate.

SAMMON: In terms of supporting them.

COLMES: Yes, yes.

SAMMON: That's because the conservatives differ with the candidates. They don't consider the Republican candidates sufficiently conservative.

By contrast, Democrats consider the Democratic candidates more than liberal enough. Now, that's great in the primaries. So you get all these people to support the Democratic candidates, because they're all pro-tax. They're all anti-war. They're all, you know, abortion rights.

But once you get into the general, that hard-left liberal lock-step that all these Democrats are walking in is going to be a problem. And the relatively moderate stance of the Republicans, which is a problem in the primary, will be a blessing...

COLMES: You say moderate stance. Things are coming out about Huckabee which we'll talk about here tonight, Harold Ford, that aren't that moderate on the issue of quarantining gays who have AIDS, on the issue of being subservient to your wife, something he signed back in 1998.

And Bill Sammon thinks this is going to be great in the general election. How do you see it?

HAROLD FORD JR., FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well, I think that's probably wishful thinking. I think a few other factors may be -- may be at work here.

First off, I think the country is ready for a change. And the Democratic candidates, whether you agree with all their policy prescriptions, all of the various policy positions, one thing is clear. The Democrats will bring a change from what we've seen over the last eight years.

The problem the Republicans really have is that they've been very afraid, if not totally reluctant, to run from President Bush.

COLMES: Right.

FORD: The majority of the country doesn't think poorly of President Bush personally, but I think there's a crying out, almost a desperate cry, for a different course.

Now, the Democrats' big challenge will be whether they can demonstrate to the country fiscal responsibility, not raising taxes, strong on security...

COLMES: Right.

FORD: ... and staying...

COLMES: We do a lot of segments. We get a lot of information in this fastest segment in politics, as we call it.

New South Carolina polls shows Obama taking the lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton. The poll conducted over the weekend. So Oprah impact possibly felt here. Oprah support from African-Americans, it seems, has increased -- Obama's support, I should say, has increased since Hillary's has dropped.

What do you say to that, Bill? Is this evidence that Oprah's had an effect?

SAMMON: Eight weeks ago I would have said it was unthinkable that Hillary Clinton would not get the Democratic nomination. Given what's happening now, it's entirely possible that eight weeks from now, which by the way, is February 5, Super Tuesday, it's possible that the Clintons', Bill and Hillary, political history will be effectively over. It is...

COLMES: Wishful thinking again.

SAMMON: No, I'm saying there's a realistic chance that Obama is going to win this thing. He still is the slight underdog, but he has a real shot at it.

HANNITY: All right, guys. Let's go to the Republican side here. And we've talked a lot about Mike Huckabee. He was on the program. Governor Mitt Romney is running this ad. And it's a compare and contrast ad with Mike Huckabee on the issue of immigration.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Two former governors, two good family men, both pro-life. Both support a constitutional amendment protecting traditional marriage.

The difference: Mitt Romney stood up and vetoed in-state tuition for illegal aliens, opposed driver's licenses for illegals. Mike Huckabee supported in-state tuition benefits for illegal immigrants.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: Harold Ford Jr., Congressman, is that an effective ad, in your view? And is it going to be followed up with ads about parole and clemency, considering that's been the big issue in the last couple of days?

FORD: If the polls are to be believed, Mitt Romney now enjoys a 20- point disadvantage, 15- to 20-point disadvantage. So he's put in a position where he has to draw these distinctions. It's unfortunate, but these things happen.

Mike Huckabee has proven to be pretty resilient, pretty swift at the mouth. And is able, as well as anybody I've seen in this -- at this stage in the campaign...

HANNITY: Yes.

FORD: ... to defend his position, lay out where he wants to take the country, and throw a jab every once in a while.

I'm not sure that ad's going to be as effective against Huckabee. It might be effective against a Giuliani but not a Huckabee, who has really proven to be pretty adept.

HANNITY: Real short. Bill, does that work?

SAMMON: I think immigration still is the third rail in primary politics. I think it's devastating whenever you bring up someone who is weak on immigration. I interviewed Rudy Giuliani, had a piece in today's paper, about how he now says he wanted to deport all the illegals from New York City. That's how keen he is on winning this vote.

HANNITY: Let me put up a CBS News/New York Times poll, as it relates to more Democrats support Hillary because of Bill than because of her experience.

SAMMON: Let's be honest about this. Does anyone really think that Hillary Rodham Clinton would be up for even dog catcher if she had not...

COLMES: Oh, come on.

SAMMON: Let me finish my sentence. Let me finish my sentence, Alan.

If she had not been married to the president of the United States of America...

COLMES: Come on.

SAMMON: ... would she be -- be a senator, much less running for the U.S. -- the presidency? That's the only reason she has -- her entire political career is utterly dependant on the man she married.

HANNITY: And this book, by the way, of yours has all the candidates and complete analysis. It just came out today.

SAMMON: "Meet the Next President." It's out today. It's got all top nine candidates. And thank God I included Huckabee. At the last minute I included Huckabee. And I would have looked real dumb if I hadn't.

HANNITY: All right, Bill. Good to see you.

Congressman Ford, always good to see you. Thank you for being with us.