Youth Vote May Bring Iowa Surprise

DES MOINES -- When Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager seemed to suggest, in a recent memo, that his candidate will benefit from a surge of "hidden" support not registered in polls, alarm bells rang for many political pundits. If Obama relies too much on the youth vote, many suspected, his strong support in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire would fail to materialize much as Howard Dean's had four years earlier.

On the other hand, with youth interest seemingly on the rise, this cycle's Iowa caucuses could be the first nominating contest in which younger voters play a definitive role in swinging delegates from one candidate to another. "All of these state and national surveys have and will continue to under-represent Barack's core support - in effect, his hidden vote," campaign manager David Plouffe wrote. The campaign hopes the youth vote will provide them the boost they need to surpass front-runner Hillary Clinton in Iowa.

Indeed, at this weekend's Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson Jackson Dinner, the Obama camp claimed to have brought in 3,000 supporters, many college-aged and all clad in identical red Obama t-shirts. The campaign has offices open in cities with major college campuses, and some organizers are focused solely on college-age voters.

But the Obama campaign quickly clarified that they are not putting all their chips on turning out younger voters. "While student outreach is a piece of the puzzle, it's not the keystone," said Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki. The campaign won't fall into the same trap candidates like Dean did, by depending on voters who don't traditionally show up. "We've learned from the successes and mistakes of the past," she said.

The hidden youth vote is oft-cited by politicians who believe they have more support than scientific polls show. Young voters, Plouffe pointed out in the memo, are less likely to have voted regularly in primaries; they are less likely to be home when pollsters call in early evening hours; and they are less likely to use a land-line, preferring cell phones. Those factors mean pollsters are more likely to undersample and overlook younger voters.

"It seems like every cycle there is a candidate who says, 'This is the year we get out the youth vote,'" said former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Gordon Fischer, who is backing Obama. "In the past, there have been attempts to organize the youth vote. I don't think there has been as large an attempt as there is now."

George Mason University Professor Michael McDonald, an expert on voter turnout, thinks Plouffe and Fischer may be right when he says more young people will vote than pollsters believe. McDonald points out that 18-29 year olds have begun turning out in higher numbers. In the general election in 2004, 49% of the demographic turned out to vote, up nine points from 2000 when national turnout rose about 4%, according to the Current Population Survey conducted by the Census Bureau (the survey, also used to determine the U.S. unemployment rate, is considered the most accurate survey of turnout trends). "There's some indications that youth interest is up in this election cycle," he said.

Younger voters turn out when moved to do so, said turnout specialist Curtis Gans, who directs the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University. In 2004, college students and younger voters turned out in high numbers to vote against President Bush. This year, Obama and other candidates are trying to move voters to turn out in favor of their candidacies. For Obama, that pull looks especially strong. "If [younger voters] feel that this is a cause, there may be some resonance," Gans said.

If that interest generates votes for any Democrat, Obama is the most likely beneficiary. The freshman senator is hugely popular among college students - one unofficial group on the popular campus social networking site Facebook has attracted about 381,000 members; his official Facebook profile boasts 162,000 supporters. Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, by contrast, has about 51,000 supporters.

Still, "this is not a demographic that [Obama] can count on as a majority," said McDonald. "This can be an important swing group [in a primary], but I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket." Even with record caucus attendance in 2004, when more than 124,000 Democrats showed up to participate in the crowded and contentious Democratic nominating contest, people between the ages of 18-34 made up just 10% of the crowd, according to Iowa Democratic Party statistics. By contrast, 32% were over 65.

Turnout, too, is key to success in Iowa. The 124,000 who showed up on caucus night 2004 was just over 6% of the eligible electorate. This year, asked whether more young voters will turn out to caucus, Fischer said Democrats are simply looking at "more of everything." The race is "as competitive in Iowa as it's ever been," he said, predicting a new attendance record this year. Because so few Iowa youth vote, campaigns may decide to focus their turnout strategies to older people who more reliably show up.

Actually getting younger participants to caucuses is a task susceptible to several hurdles. The circumstances surrounding caucus night are major barriers: Iowans who have long caucused themselves will invariably point out, when asked about the experience, that the weather is likely to be miserably cold, and that attendees must spend hours in a room with people they barely know and proudly voice their opinions on politics. "That's not normal college student behavior," University of Iowa political scientist Bruce Gronbeck said with a laugh.

No matter how cold it is, younger and first-time voters still need to learn how to operate in a caucus, and the process itself is another barrier, one that requires a time-intensive investment to overcome. Trading votes, compromising and convincing neighbors are all skills required to win delegates for one's chosen candidate. "Half the battle is getting [young voters] to show up," independent pollster Ann Selzer said. "And another quarter of the battle is teaching them what to do."

"You need a well-organized, well-disciplined campaign. It takes a lot more hand-holding" than a primary, she said. Experienced caucus-goers, many of whom have participated in the process for decades, can operate more effectively than a passionate younger voter with little knowledge of the process.

Ironically, Iowa's push to maintain its first-in-the-nation nominating contest could push down, or at least seriously dilute, the youth vote. The state will hold its caucuses on January 3rd, a date which falls in the middle of winter vacation, when most students are still home with their families.

Students who live out of state are not able to participate at the caucuses. That's up to 37% of the more than 30,000 students at the University of Iowa alone, according to the school's registrar. The remaining 63% will face fellow caucus-goers in their home precincts, instead of fellow college students at a caucus near campus. If a few younger voters show up to a caucus dominated by older, more experienced attendees, their influence will be greatly diminished.

If youth are to have an effect anywhere, Iowa looks to be the most likely place it would be felt. Campuses are popular destinations for candidates. "Candidates enjoy going [to colleges and universities]," said Selzer, who conducts surveys for the Des Moines Register. "It gives them a real sense of momentum and enthusiasm." A student attending one of the state's major schools, including the University of Iowa, the University of Northern Iowa, Simpson College, Iowa State University or Drake University will have more than one opportunity to run across any Democratic candidate, and most Republican candidates, all within steps of their dorm rooms.

Campaigns are also putting a stronger emphasis on Iowa, now that the race enters its final hundred days. Many, both inside various Democratic campaigns and those who observe from the outside, believe that if Clinton wins in here, the snowball effect her campaign will feel would be unstoppable. With polls showing a tight three-way race, it is up to her opponents to halt her march toward the nomination in the Hawkeye State.

To that end, several candidates have poured millions of dollars into Iowa already, and the flow of money and infrastructure will only continue. Former Sen. John Edwards has virtually made the state his second home, since his surprise second-place finish in 2004 catapulted him to a one-on-one face off with John Kerry. Obama boasts 31 satellite campaign offices in the state, more than any other candidate. He's spent more than $4 million on television ads, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Clinton have each spent more than $2.2 million. Several second-tier candidates have packed up an moved all but a few staffers - and even family members -- to Iowa for the critical final stretch.

If the race is as close as polls suggest - Clinton, Obama and Edwards all hover in the low to mid-20% range - strong youth turnout could be key to anyone's hopes of winning. Pollster Selzer says it is no longer implausible to bank on new faces showing up on caucus night. In 2004, 45% of attendees were first-time caucus-goers.

But Obama, she said, shouldn't bank on younger voters showing up, and she doubts his strategists will make the same mistakes others made. "He's got a smart campaign, and I think they are probably well aware of what it will take to have those voters materialize."

Fischer said the campaign is pleased with its support from younger voters, but that traditional campaigning comes first. "We're looking at young voters as icing on the cake," he said, "but we're still baking the cake."