Frank Luntz & Scott Rasmussen On Hannity & Colmes

COLMES: Welcome to HANNITY & COLMES. We get right to our top story tonight. The countdown continues, we're now just 37 days from the Iowa caucuses and 70 days from Super Tuesday on February 5th. And there were some important new polls today that could shake up the race even more.

In Iowa a new Strategic Vision poll on the Democratic side shows a dead heat with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied at 29 percent and John Edwards in third at 23 percent. On the Republican side, in Iowa, Mitt Romney at 26 percent, now just two points ahead of a surging Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani at 14 percent and Fred Thompson at 10.

But perhaps the biggest surprise today came in Florida another important early state. A new Insider Advantage Majority Opinion Research poll shows Rudy Giuliani leading with 26 percent, and here comes Mike Huckabee at 17 percent. That's an 11-point increase since the last poll in October making him by far the biggest mover in the Sunshine State.

Joining us now with more, our own Frank Luntz and pollster Scott Rasmussen. Frank, what do you make of these? Have things changed in any great way? Perhaps Mike Huckabee being the greatest story.

FRANK LUNTZ, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: The first time we did one of these dial sessions for Fox, it was Mike Huckabee who won that debate, and he's come in first or second on all of them. There is another debate tomorrow night.

Every time you get a chance to compare him to the other candidates, he always does well, and notice that he's gaining votes for every percentage point that Fred Thompson is losing.

COLMES: Why?

SCOTT RASMUSSEN, RASMUSSEN REPORTS: Because they're looking for that base of evangelical conservatives. They're trying to pick up people that were voiceless earlier in the campaign. And right now Mike Huckabee not only is surging in the polls, he's also picking up the solidest support, the people who are least likely to change their name and most likely to show up.

COLMES: So once people get to know who he is, he's relatively unknown. Once people get a load of Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani and where they stand on the issues and realize they're not true conservatives, does Mike Huckabee stand a chance of getting the nomination?

RASMUSSEN: I don't think Mike Huckabee right now is likely to get the nomination. He could win Iowa. We're in the field right now tonight so we're really seeing some data tonight, see what that shows.

But he could win in Iowa and that throws a monkey wrench in Mitt Romney's plans and Rudy Giuliani's plans and it leaves this race even more muddled .

COLMES: Let me ask you. There's a Zogby poll out today that says Hillary Clinton in a match-up with each Republican candidate, the Republican wins in every case. Sean Hannity just leaped out of his chair for joy. That's the opposite, he's not going to leap at this, at what a Gallup poll said a couple of weeks ago. That's a little older poll. Do you buy the Zogby numbers saying that Hillary loses to every - in a match up with each of the Republican candidates?

RASMUSSEN: No, if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, we have a close election. I believe she'll get close to 50 percent, probably under 50 percent of the vote no matter who she runs against, and it will be great for your ratings, great for the polling business.

COLMES: That's all we really care about, a close election.

Frank, what do you make of one poll a couple weeks ago, things could have changed, the Gallup poll saying she beats every Republican. Now the new Zogby poll says she loses to every Republican.

LUNTZ: I question those results as well. She's not had a good couple of weeks. And the more that people look at her, and this is where Huckabee has done well and she hasn't. Where Obama has done well. That she does look somewhat scripted, she does look somewhat rehearsed. A lot of these candidates are starting to look tired because they've been on the road every single day.

COLMES: Right.

LUNTZ: In her case expectations are so high that even if she performs well, there's that gap that sometimes she can't meet. That said, if she wins in Iowa, I don't think anyone believes that she won't go all the way. Obama has to beat her in Iowa, and right now that's a distinct possibility.

COLMES: And if Obama wins in Iowa, does he go all the way?

RASMUSSEN: Not necessarily. If he wins big, he's very competitive and becomes a legitimate chance to win. If it's a three-way race, then I think Senator Clinton has the edge. And the other big thing to watch is what happens to John Edwards.

If Obama and Clinton are very close and Edwards falls of the table that's better news for Barack Obama.

COLMES: It seems like a two way race on the Democratic side. The Republican side much more wide open, Frank.

LUNTZ: It's totally blown out. We don't know what Ron Paul is going to do.

COLMES: He could run as an independent is what you're saying?

LUNTZ: We don't know if he's going to get two percent, one percent that he gets in most surveys, or if he's got this hidden vote out there. A state like New Hampshire, independents, it's important for viewers. Independents can choose which primary they vote in, and at this point they're leaning toward voting in the Democratic primary, but if Hillary Clinton is going to be the clear nominee, they may shift over to the Republican primary. It's dangerous at this point to make any projections.

COLMES: Dennis Kucinich said he'd consider Ron Paul as a running mate. What do you make of that?

RASMUSSEN: Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul both are running on an antiwar platform. That's what they've got going for them. I don't think either one of them is going to be in a position to be selecting a running mate. So we don't have to worry about it very much.

HANNITY: Scott, I want to go back to something you were talking about earlier. You don't think that Hillary in a general election can get 49 percent of the vote. Does that go to her high unfavorable voting coupled with the honesty gap? She is also losing independents according to a lot of polls, too.

RASMUSSEN: And it goes to the fact that this is a woman who is very well-known. There are people voting next year who were in nursery school when she first moved into the White House. They have very polarizing opinions or feelings about her.

What it says also is the country is still fairly evenly divided, so she can get maybe to 49 percent or 48 percent, but as we've seen, that's enough to win the White House.

LUNTZ: And there's a key gap. Right now Democrats have about a 10- point generic ballot advantage. Just generically. But when you ask who they want for president, she wins by one or two points.

HANNITY: Not according to this latest poll.

LUNTZ: There's still that gap. There is consistently Democrats run eight points ahead of what she runs. The question is who are these people? They're male, and they're older. I know Mark Penn, the pollster, her pollster has said .

HANNITY: Twenty-five percent of women. Of Republican women.

LUNTZ: But here's the question. White Democrat men, white Democratic men don't like Hillary Clinton.

HANNITY: Let me add the two biggest issues we've been following on the political front have obviously been the war in Iraq, the war on terror and also the economy. WE have sales numbers, early Christmas season numbers look great for the economy. The war in Iraq by even the "New York Times" measure is doing well. It seems that she bet on the wrong horse there in shifting positions. Is that going to be a factor?

LUNTZ: You don't want to hear my answer.

HANNITY: Let's go to Scott.

LUNTZ: Perception, right direction, wrong track. We're a very pessimistic nation. We are anxious about the future, we're nervous about the economy. We are very - I don't care - Sean, it's perception.

HANNITY: It's perception. I understand.

LUNTZ: The reality may be good, but perception isn't.

RASMUSSEN: I want to follow up on that. Sean, the consumer confidence is so low right now. We measure consumer confidence every single day. And for the last month it has been lower than it was in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.

HANNITY: These spending records are being set. It's contradictory.

RASMUSEN: Well, people are worried about the future expectations, the expectations of where the economy is going, where their personal finances are going, are very big.

HANNITY: Let me go to a point that Karl Rove has made, and he's said that John Edwards and Barack Obama have been running very weak campaigns against Hillary, and I agree with him. Only recently has Barack Obama become somewhat aggressive. When she's up against a Republican candidate, and they're going to create these ads that are going to be very firs forceful against her, what kind of impact is that going to have?

RASMUSSEN: One thing you have to remember with Hillary Clinton is people do have an opinion about her. So the ads are not going to have as much of an impact as they would against a lesser known candidate.

HANNITY: What if the ad is flip-flopping on Iraq? What if the ad is the flip-flopping on immigration? What if the ad is flip-flopping on the baby bond and everything in between.

RASMUSSEN: Sure. There will be an impact on a small percentage of the people, but someone like you is going to look at that one way and say that's great, and Alan is going to look at it in a different way.

HANNITY: I'm on the brink of voting for her.

RASMUSSEN: And because there is a very small percentage of people you're trying to reach with that.

I think the issue is none of us know what the environment is going to be like in Iraq, and the economy, what are the issues on immigration going to be at that time?

HANNITY: I want to get this question in because this is important.

I want to talk about the issue of momentum and expectations with you, and the momentum case being whoever wins Iowa, does that take them to New Hampshire, Michigan, and what does it do to somebody like Rudy Giuliani whose poll numbers favor him in the later states, later being three weeks later. When we hit Florida and then February 5th?

LUNTZ: Normally you get an eight-day bump, this time you only get five, so that's going to be worth a few percentage points. Let's say Romney wins in Iowa, he's got the money to be able to campaign in New Hampshire. Should Mike Huckabee pull it off, he's still short of funds.

HANNITY: Doesn't have the money.

LUNTZ: Here's what we have. Romney could run the tables in the first four races, he could. We've never had a situation where someone's come back having lost the first four and then won, but Giuliani has the money to be able to do that.

HANNITY: We've never had, Scott, the configuration as we have this year, and that's that it's all been expedited, and it's happening so much more quickly here.

RASMUSSEN: It's happening much more quickly, and people know the candidates. This process has been going on for a long time. We have the Internet. There was not a situation where a candidate wins Iowa who is unknown to the general public beforehand and gets introduced to the nation.

LUNTZ: And yet you still have 20 percent of Republicans that are undecided. That's amazing.

HANNITY: I've got to tell you, 37 days to go, it doesn't get any better than this. This is Super Bowl time. So, guys, good to see you.